The government’s economic policy strategy is unclear
Slowly politics and the economy are heading towards a dead end, if there is not a strong backlash, other than the acceleration desired by Giorgia Meloni. The intervention of Paolo Pirani, councilor of the Cnel
“ The order of ideas must proceed according to the order of things ”, argued Giambattista Vico. Probably in Cernobbio the Economy Minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti , followed this inspiration when he stated that he was aiming for a prudent budget manoeuvre. In fact, the order of things does not signal a favorable autumn, far from it. Inflation falls slowly while the shopping cart eats away at wages and savings, reducing the propensity to consume.
On growth, Istat issues a warning: there is no locomotive Italy and with Germany also stops Europe the risks of stagnation, a prelude to possible recessions favored by international tensions, are knocking on the door. In the meantime, the ECB does not give up on interest rates which further narrow the margins for an expansion of the economy, pending furthermore the discussion on the return to a stability pact which could once again evoke the specter of special surveillance for our country.
BLUE CRABS AND GREEN LIGHTS
In the summer we took it out on the blue crabs, autumn could change the cards on the table and let us see… the green mice.
Certainly there will be a serious problem of resources and consequently the difficulty of encouraging investments. But what emerges from the economic situation is a need for policies that know how to combine the problems of the present with the future. And this seems to be the "black hole" of Italian politics.
THE GOVERNMENT'S DIFFICULTIES REGARDING THE BUDGET LAW AND THE STABILITY PACT
The government currently appears without a strategy, nor unfortunately the opposition seem able to force it to choose a path to take. After all, the budget law and the Stability Pact are two references capable of oscillating in a global economic system that does not offer certainties, but multiplies questions.
On the stability pact, the confrontation sees us almost isolated, so much so that even the memory of a Sarkozy who recalls how the Berlusconi government was "fired" by that Franco-German axis (at the time there was Merkel) which, moreover, today it is no longer as solid as it once was.
For now, not surprisingly, Italy appears more interested in a postponement than in a solution. But on this question it is not even easy to trace a clear position of the oppositions.
In terms of maneuver, one cannot but fear the worst. The choices take more account of the consensus that the political right intends to maintain both from and when it takes away, but leaves the fate of crucial sectors such as industrial policy, health care, education and training completely unspecified, as well as the continuation of the objectives of the Pnrr.
WHERE IS THE WORLD GOING, WHERE IS ITALY GOING?
In the Western world, headed by the United States, there is a facilitated return home of productions, Italy limits itself to jokes such as that of the Foreign Minister who deems the consequences of the agreements on the Silk Road unsatisfactory. Healthcare after the pandemic shows that it is worse off than before with a… devolution towards the private sector that is increasingly divisive on the social side. The school shows deficiencies that also have repercussions on the lack of professionalism in the world of work but effective recipes are not seen. On the Pnrr we pretend that everything is going well, but in reality nobody knows exactly what awaits us soon.
In this way, i.e. without Vico's ideas, we go nowhere.
The maneuver cannot result in a botched compromise between majority parties and with Europe (if it agrees…) which in fact delegates the inevitable economic and social showdown to the future. It would really be the slope of an announced disaster. A general change would really be needed.
In such a dangerous situation, it would be useful to think first of all according to criteria from the Italian system. Mario Draghi had also recently indicated some proposals to be put on the table in Brussels: the European budget and common expenses for investments to be financed through Eurobonds, for example. Wouldn't it then be appropriate to recover some of the best suggestions of what was… the Draghi agenda?
Secondly, an updated form of concertation between the Government, Parliament and the social partners should be restored. If what is at stake is not a budget maneuver but choices that will seriously condition the country's future, one cannot escape a 360-degree confrontation that also gives the country the sign of a common will to face real problems without hiding behind their own flags.
Slogans, fireworks that last for a moment for the benefit of social networks, refusal of confrontation a priori, will end up unnecessarily red-hot the political and social scene. The opposition probably has more to lose, given that in the worst moments we inevitably rely on those in charge, or bow their heads in the face of external "interference". Let's not forget that up to now we have had a sort of disguised commissioner at different times, first with Monti, then with Draghi himself. It would be appropriate to avoid new experiences perhaps even much heavier.
Slowly politics and the economy are heading towards a dead end, if there is not a strong backlash, other than the acceleration desired by Giorgia Meloni. It is necessary that the best cultural, political and social energies be mobilized.
The potential of the Italian economy exists and is still strong, but we need a society that is not disjointed, at the mercy of itself without a compass even in terms of civil coexistence. In short, the reference to the natural order of things is still valid…
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/giorgetti-manovra-bilancio-prudente/ on Mon, 04 Sep 2023 11:39:38 +0000.