The rearmament of Berlin, the future of FCAS and MGCS, the role of Italy. The analysis of Doctors (Limes)
What changes in European defense with the rearmament decided by Germany? The theses of Germano Dottori, political analyst and scientific advisor of the Limes magazine, on the latest issue of the geopolitics magazine
On defense, will Germany break free from the axis with France and aim at Italy?
Will Germany's rearmament plan, which allocated 100 billion to strengthen the army in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, upset the current balance of industrial relations in the defense sector?
"For the future it is probable that the Germans will try to use the financial mass made available to their defense to promote the aggregation of European productive poles led by them, putting in new terms the bilateral relations entertained with France and with Italy in the armament materials sector ". This is what Germano Dottori, political analyst and scientific advisor of the Limes magazine claims, in the latest issue of the magazine "The Steel Curtain".
As Dottori recalls, at the moment the Franco-German axis in defense is based on two programs: the FCAS, the future sixth generation fighter and the MGCS, the next generation tank (Main battle tank).
“All these projects were conceived in an obviously very different economic and industrial context, which the increase in German military spending is destined to overturn,” adds Dottori.
And how will Italy position itself? “From the solution that will be given to the Oto Melara-Wass case, we will understand which side the wind is blowing”, highlights the analyst.
After completing the acquisition of 25.1% of Hensoldt, a German defense electronics company, Leonardo is seeking to sell its two land and naval armaments subsidiaries. And among the bidders were the Franco-German consortium Knds on the one hand and the national shipbuilding giant Fincantieri on the other last year. But at the end of May the offer of another German player also arrived: Rheinmetall Italia .
All the details.
FCAS AND MGCS IN DIFFICULTY?
"In this field, the first dossiers to be affected by Berlin's new ambitions will probably be those relating to the new European battle tank [MGCS ed], which should replace the German Leopard II and French Leclerc, and the so-called FCAS: sixth generation destined to replace Lutwaffe Eurofighter Typhoons, Armée de l'Air Rafale and Spanish Ef-18 Hornets, theoretically competing with the Tempest which will instead be produced by Great Britain, Italy and Sweden, with a participation of Japan in the limited time, but the expansion of which is not excluded ”, reports Dottori.
Both programs are struggling at the moment. So much so that recently, Éric Trappier the CEO of Dassault (French aeronautical company that leads the FCAS program together with Airbus and Indra) said that the decade of 2040 set for the operation of the New Generation Fighter is now unattainable due to the substantial stasis in which the program pays.
THE REPERCUSSIONS FOR ROME
And according to Dottori "the repercussions that will certainly be felt also in our country, which for now has been linked primarily to France through the signing of the Quirinal Treaty, currently still being examined by parliament for the authorization of ratification but to which it is already being implemented informally. Although part of the European framework, the enhanced Italian-French cooperation has in fact introduced a scheme of preventive consultation between Rome and Paris which affects security, defense and space, with strong industrial repercussions. France strongly wanted the agreement in an attempt to balance the existing imbalance in its relations with Germany with the Italian contribution, finding sensitive ears in our country, equally eager not to be crushed by Berlin ”.
Therefore, according to the analyst, the Italian defense is very careful to forge links both with the French counterpart and with the German one and beyond. In fact, Dottori recalled that Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini confirmed last May at a hearing in Parliament "how in reality the Italian-French collaborations were already very extensive and, above all, revealing that the government was hypothesising to explore the possibility of entering into agreements similar to the Quirinal Treaty with Spain and Germany ".
Guerini recently returned to the issue of consolidating European defense in a telephone conversation with the EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton.
Our country is ready "to take on a leading role in the great European defense construction project", and this above all thanks to the "strength of the Italian industry in the defense sector, functional to strengthening the European technological and industrial base". The Italian minister reiterated the importance of "creating synergies within a cooperative market model". "The consolidation of European autonomy in strategic industrial sectors is a project in which Italy strongly believes – added Guerini – it is a work to be done together, with great seriousness and commitment, in full spirit of cohesion and unity of purpose ".
THE ITALIAN DEFENSE STRATEGY
"In other words, the Italian strategy of national self-protection would once again be the one that passes through the preparation of a network of relationships in which the political and strategic relevance of the opening made towards a partner is balanced by the establishment of relationships equally strong with others able to balance it. It is not clear whether the French will like this approach of ours, but we will always be able to reply to any remarks by observing how Paris has also done the same thing towards the Germans and the Spaniards ”affirmed Germano Dottori.
Therefore, for the Limes adviser, "We will try to negotiate with each other the best conditions for access to the groups under development around the most ambitious programs, trying to safeguard as far as possible what remains of our" technological sovereignty " in the most sensitive niches of the aerospace and armaments industry, selling it instead where our country lags significantly and no longer has the opportunity to remain competitive ".
THE OTO MELARA-WASS DOSSIER
"From the solution that will be given to the Oto Melara-Wass case, we will understand which way the wind is blowing" said Dottori.
As mentioned at the beginning, the German defense group Rheinmetall wants to invest in Italy by purchasing up to 49% of Oto Melara, the land armaments subsidiary offered for sale by Leonardo together with the other Wass unit.
At the end of May, the company led by Armin Papperger presented a non-binding offer to Leonardo worth between 190 and 210 million euros for the former Oto.
The last word, however, belongs to the government, which controls Leonardo (30% through the Mef). "The goal is to work on maintaining a national presidium open to European industrial cooperation", the Minister of Defense Guerini pointed out last November, when asked about the Oto Melara dossier.
UNREPLACEABLE PARTNERSHIP TO NATO
Finally, in any direction Italy will move on defense, we cannot ignore the NATO framework.
“The feeling, however, is that we will negotiate not only between the French and the Germans, but also with the Americans, the British and the Israelis, perhaps even with the Turks, cooperating with each on different projects. This circumstance will contribute to emphasize once more the irreplaceable character that membership in the Atlantic Alliance still holds for us Italians, the only container in which these divergent forces can be managed and harmonized in some way in the near future ”concluded Germano Dottori.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/il-riarmo-di-berlino-il-futuro-di-fcas-e-mgcs-il-ruolo-dellitalia-lanalisi-di-dottori-limes/ on Sun, 26 Jun 2022 05:41:21 +0000.