The Russia-Ukraine war according to intelligence
What are the intelligence predictions on the Russia-Ukraine war? The article by Giuseppe Gagliano
What does the international press say about the predictions relating to the war in Ukraine? And what do Intelligence say on the subject?
American National Intelligence Director Avril Haines recently had the opportunity to express her understandable pessimism about the short-term positive outcome of the war and secondly, equally reasonably stressed that the conflict will be very long. According to the reflections of the director of National Intelligence, the Russian president intends to conquer a large part of Ukraine and above all you have shown that you are very determined to achieve his main objectives. Precisely because of the uncertain outcome of the war it is difficult to deny that Moscow will resort both to hybrid warfare and above all to the blocking of energy supplies in Europe (which will certainly contribute to making the situation in some European countries very difficult and not even dramatic).
These reflections may seem profound but in reality they fully mirror those matured by the director of the CIA, William Burns, and by Scott Berrier of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in April. And they do not differ substantially from those of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken or Secretary of Defense Austin. Indeed, it seems that there is a profound synergy between the American intelligence agencies and the presidential executive.
However, this healthy realism clearly and clearly contrasts with the optimistic analyzes developed by many local and, more generally European analysts, relating to the blocking of Russian energy supplies that will affect Europe and in particular France, Germany and Italy.
Indeed, not a few analysts have dramatically underestimated the impact that the Nord Stream outage will have on our energy infrastructures. What is quite certain is that the European country that will certainly suffer the least damage will be France thanks to its nuclear power plants.
As for the Russian intelligence front, there are news. A meeting was recently held between the head of Belarusian intelligence Ivan Tertel and that of Russian external intelligence – the well-known SVR – Sergei Naryshkin. The theme of the meeting is the war in Ukraine but also and above all the sharing of information. In fact, Russian intelligence has always collaborated with the S.V. R and with the FSB.
Indeed, Russian intelligence collects information in both Poland and Ukraine, while Belarus shares analyzes, scenarios and information relating to NATO's strategic choices with Russian intelligence. This collaboration, however, must not deceive the fact that Russian intelligence is doing everything to have a very significant impact on the political choices of the Belarusian premier. Naturally, the Belarusian premier is aware of this influence and the fact that he put Tertel in charge of Belarusian intelligence was not a casual choice but aimed at making Belarusian intelligence independent from Russian intelligence. Or at least groped to make it autonomous.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/la-guerra-russia-ucraina-secondo-le-intelligence/ on Tue, 12 Jul 2022 12:44:26 +0000.