The security of states depends on the seabed. The professor speaks. Bueger
The seabed is an increasingly industrialized space, with a growing density of economic activities and infrastructure. Their protection requires a military capability. Conversation by Maurizio Stefanini with Christian Bueger, professor of International Relations at the University of Copenhagen, taken from the latest issue of the quarterly Start Magazine
On the one hand, Russia found itself forced to evacuate its ships from the Black Sea following the very serious losses suffered in clashes with a country like Ukraine, which practically does not even have a real fleet. On the other hand, there is an irregular group like the Houthis who have also managed to influence oil prices with their naval attacks. The Second World War had already marked the end of the model of battle between ships with cannon fire as it had established itself since the invention of firearms, to affirm the primacy of attacks with planes and submarines. Now we even see large ships apparently powerless in the face of gifts. How is naval warfare evolving?
We talk about it with Christian Bueger : an expert on maritime issues who is professor of International Relations at the University of Copenhagen, honorary professor at the University of the Seychelles, director of SafeSeas – The network for maritime security research, Co-Chair of the Copenhagen Ocean Hub and Honorary Research Fellow at Cardiff University. His observation is that “the seabed represents a significant gap in current strategic discourses and debates on maritime security. Much of the maritime security focus has been on surface or infrastructure such as ports. Other dimensions have often been overlooked and this includes the importance of space, cyber , but also infrastructure hosted on the ocean floor.”
THE SEABED IS AN INCREASINGLY INDUSTRIALIZED SPACE
Since the creation of the concept of Geopolitics, coined in 1899 by the Swedish geographer Rudolf Kjellén, this discipline has been marked by debate between supporters of the primacy of the thalassocracies dominating the sea, such as the American Alfred Thayer Mahan; supporters of the primacy of land powers, such as the German Karl Haushofer; and intermediate visions such as those of the British Sir Halford John Mackinder, according to which the maritime powers remain morally superior but can be put into crisis by an evolution due in particular to the development of the railways. Thus, again according to Mackinder, the world would find itself divided between "Island Earth" of Eurasia and Africa and "the Islands" (British Isles, Americas, Australia, Oceania, Japan). For Mackinder, whoever owns the World Island owns the world. But the World Island in turn is controlled by whoever controls the Heartland made up of Central Europe, Ukraine and Western Russia.
Mahan and Mackinder were in turn integrated by Nicholas John Spykman with the theory of the centrality of the Rimland: the coastal strip that connects Eurasia with ports in temperate seas that can be used all year round. The Truman Theory of Containment was inspired in particular by Spykman. How is the situation today?
According to Bueger, alongside Earth and Sea, as well as Sky and now also Space, we should also start considering the seabed. “The seabed is an increasingly industrialized space, with a growing density of economic activities and infrastructure. This includes fossil fuel installations and pipelines, the undersea data cables that form the backbone of contemporary digital communications, and the expansion of renewable green energy infrastructure, such as fixed wind and solar farms, the undersea power grid that connects them, hydrogen pipelines and carbon storage on the seabed. Projects. Sand, rock and mineral mining is also widespread and a new generation of seabed mineral mining is on the starting line. Furthermore, the seabed represents a vital store of carbon and constitutes many maritime heritage sites."
A NEW MILITARY STRATEGY FOR THE SEA BED
In recent years the biggest flashpoint of maritime tension has been China's expansion on the seas: financing to build ports; the construction of artificial islands; conflicts over maritime borders with neighbors; sending predatory fishing fleets across the globe. However, there is doubt that in the end China is not even in a position to be able to complete a landing in Taiwan, which would be its main declared objective. “The ocean floor is a hostile geophysical environment that makes operations difficult. The enormous extension of underwater infrastructure makes complete surveillance impossible."
A central theme in today's political debate is that of climate change. An obvious question is what kind of impact they might have on maritime space and underwater operations. “Although infrastructure development and protection are primarily civilian or private tasks, military capabilities are needed under these conditions.” And have there been recent important developments in the underwater defense dimension? “Traditionally, the defense sector has limited its role in the submarine sector to anti-submarine warfare and mine hunting. The growing dependence on underwater infrastructure and the fact that threats have started to materialize, as demonstrated by acts of sabotage on the Nord Stream and Baltic Connector pipelines, raises the need for a new military strategy for the seabed.”
ITALIAN NAVY ON THE FRONTLINE
It seems that Italy is also gearing up, with the underwater defense center it is preparing in La Spezia. “The Italian Navy has been at the forefront of leading the development of this strategy by focusing on reviewing the law, stakeholder cooperation and testing new operational and surveillance technologies. The creation of a new center is the next logical step in this process that other nations will need to pay close attention to. The center will be an important focal point for the internal implementation of effective operations, in coordination with civil and private stakeholders. It will also have an important external function in cooperation with Italy's neighbours, including Malta and Tunisia, but will also offer a reliable link with NATO and EU efforts in protecting critical maritime infrastructure."
Bueger has also dedicated specific studies on NATO's contribution to the protection of critical maritime infrastructures. “The attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline in 2022 highlighted the need for infrastructure protection to enter the public safety debate. But NATO representatives had warned of such vulnerabilities well before this incident. Following warnings from senior military leaders about the lack of security of undersea data cables and foreign naval activity near infrastructure, the Alliance has been well aware of the security risks since at least 2015. However, the Nord Stream attacks were a major catalyst for the intensification of activities in the Alliance and the sabotage of the Baltic Connector pipeline in 2023 reconfirmed the need for action.
With infrastructure protection now a political priority in capital cities, the Alliance has developed a significant portfolio of responses. Most were announced at the 2023 Vilnius Summit with a strong commitment to “identify and mitigate strategic vulnerabilities and dependencies on our critical infrastructure and to prepare for, deter and defend against coercive use of energy and other tactics hybrid by state and non-state actors”.
NATO'S STRATEGY
Do you know what these measures are in concrete terms? “NATO forces have strengthened their military presence at critical infrastructure sites in the Baltic and North Sea. Patrolling with surface and aerial systems was intensified after the Baltic Connector pipeline incidents in 2023. A new subsea critical infrastructure coordination cell was installed in Brussels in February 2013, with two essential tasks: identifying vulnerabilities and improving information sharing and exchange of best practices between military and civilian authorities and industry. The key objective is the development of this community of trust. As the Secretary General explained: Because most of these critical underwater infrastructures are owned by private companies, operated by private companies and have access and control over important capabilities that can help us in surveillance and also in intelligence gathering. At the Vilnius summit, the creation of the NATO Maritime Center for the Security of Critical Areas of Subsea Infrastructure within the NATO Maritime Command (Marcom) was announced.”
It seems that not only Italy is carrying out initiatives on the topic. “Recognizing that the protection of critical maritime infrastructure requires better monitoring and surveillance, NATO launched together with Sweden in October 2023 the new Digital Ocean technology initiative, which aims to better integrate capabilities and explore how new technologies, ranging from floating sensors, to autonomous systems, to satellites and algorithms, they can improve MDA. A roadmap is being developed and a technology competition is planned for April 2024. Additionally, the wide range of NATO-related centers of excellence have developed a number of activities. Among them, Turkey's Maritime Security Center of Excellence published a study on the issue and also made it the theme of its annual conference to be held in June 2024.
Lithuania's Center of Excellence for Energy Security held practical exercises and published a study on underwater power cables. The German Center of Excellence for Operations in Confined and Shallow Waters is planning exercises, the Italian Center for Maritime Research and Experimentation has made efforts to improve the detection of suspicious ships that may be involved in acts of sabotage. Portugal's Maritime Geospatial, Meteorological and Oceanographic Center of Excellence is active in the development of unmanned vehicles for MDA, while the United States Maritime Center of Excellence's combined joint operations lead to the development of a new strategic seabed concept. It is at a November 2023 naval forum in Spain that Italy had also announced its plans for a new NATO center of excellence on seabed infrastructure.” The one in La Spezia, precisely.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/fondali-marini-difesa/ on Mon, 01 Apr 2024 05:45:37 +0000.