The unions distort the reality of the economy and work
How and why union leaders twist reality. Giuliano Cazzola's analysis
'' And even if it wasn't / dreaming about it is enough for me ''. These are some of the last lines of Calderon de la Barca's drama “ Life is a dream. '' It is the same thing that – albeit with a less lyrical approach – the union leaders could say: to them the employment, economic and social reality of the Country just imagine it in their nightmares '' even if this was not the case ''. After all, they always enjoy an advantageous condition, as they can count on the watchword that opens all the doors in public opinion: '' said television ''. In fact, talk shows believe that to '' make the news '' it is necessary to exhibit angry, desperate people: families forced to eat the house cat; companies on the verge of bankruptcy from their bills; precarious and underpaid workers; retirees engaged in the separate collection of garbage in order to find anything that looks like food.
The union leaders (Maurizio Landini is the conductor, Pierpaolo Bombardieri is the first violin, while Luigi Sbarra plays the oboe) have staged an edition of the Apocalypse with the adoption of new special effects to make it even darker the drama.
Obviously ours are caricatures that – as we know – perform the function of deforming certain characteristics of the people targeted with a touch of irony. But our heroes lend themselves a lot to this game, for their incredible propensity to overdo it, to judge the surrounding reality with the conviction that the trade unionist's job is to evoke human tragedies to justify his role.
It thus happens that not only “ the perceived '' is transformed into the “ real '', but it becomes so until proven otherwise, because in what is considered politically correct there is no room for positive signals or for situations that are not in despair. After the stoning to which Silvio Berlusconi was subjected years ago, no one dares to argue – towards the sfascists – that the restaurants are full. Also because there are more important and solid data to support and prove that the glass is not completely empty.
Firstly (albeit with sectoral imbalances) the economy continues to grow beyond forecasts and more than that of other countries. In the first nine months of 2022, Italy is close to + 4%. Of course, statistics are not built ad horas. But GDP has never been growing for several quarters, despite all the effects of the unprecedented, unforeseen and very serious disasters that have afflicted the world in recent years (the pandemic, the surge in the cost of raw materials, the energy crisis, the and its consequences destabilizing the backbone of the globalized economy, the restart of inflation in shredding fixed incomes).
Of course, we notice a progressive decline and above all we do not rule out a recession; but at each moment of verification we move the beginning of it further forward. We are locked in the Bastiani Fortress waiting for the Tartars to cross the desert.
The union leaders have long warned us that millions of layoffs are on the way due to expensive bills (perhaps these are the ones that were announced when the blocking of layoffs came to an end and which did not come true, luckily turning into a massive recourse to voluntary discharge which soon became an unexpected and unexpected social phenomenon).
As for employment, let us rely on the usual 10 summary tweets by Francesco Seghezzi of Adapt on 3 November: 1) In September 2022, the number of employees grew by 46 thousand units, on an annual basis we are +316 thousand more employed. 2) Both female (+12 thousand) and male (+34 thousand) employment grew, on an annual basis respectively +111 thousand (+ 1.2%) and + 205 thousand (+ 1.6%); 3) Sharp decline in inactive people (-86 thousand) which translates into a slight increase in the unemployed (+ 8 thousand) is an important share of people who leave the reference population. 4) The employment rate returns among the highest levels of the historical series with 60.2%, also thanks to the decrease in the population aged 15-64. 5) Permanent employees increased a lot (82 thousand) and fixed-term employees decreased by 20 thousand. In one year, fixed-term employees “only” grow by 29 thousand units, despite being at the highest levels of the historical series. However – as Claudio Negro points out in the Bulletin of the Anna Kuliscioff Foundation – it is a figure that is clearly in contrast with the current vulgate, stable employees are growing compared to those on a fixed-term basis: the former increase in short-term terms by 0.5% and trend by 1.4%, while the latter, after the strong growth in the first months after Covid (+ 0.9% in the last 12 months), begin to decrease significantly (-0.6% in economic terms) 6) They start to decrease again – we went back to Seghezzi – the independent employees, which grew by 83,000 units in the year, however, remaining at lower figures than in the pre-Covid period. 7) The employment of young people between the ages of 25 and 34 increases by 1.3% and both the unemployment and inactivity rates decrease. 8) The employment rate among 35-49 year-olds also slightly increases and drops slightly in the two extremes 15-24 and 50-64 years old. 9) Without the demographic component, the data show a marked growth in employment under 35 and a positive trend in all age groups. 10) In summary: in September 2022 permanent employment in the central age group grew, probable impact of the drop in layoffs.
Yes, because on the basis of the latest available data we realize that the hours of layoffs in 2022 decreased compared to the previous year, which was not one of the worst. Not to mention another emergency: that of the mismatch which has now become a factor of great difficulty for companies. This is why, all in all, Negro is right when he writes with evident and shared bitterness: “ To understand how, in such hostile conditions, the labor market is able to produce appreciable performances and to study its mechanisms, practices, industrial relations, the dynamics and contexts that generate them would be of great use for an innovative approach to labor market policies. On the other hand, it is striking – continues Negro – how the trade union, in general, is disinterested in the subject and prefers to continue to paint the labor market as a hell of underemployment and precariousness, almost as if in the absence of extreme situations of social suffering and misery, the reason 'being of the Syndicate fails''.
And as we said at the beginning: why try to understand reality when it is easier to dream of it.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/i-sindacati-deformano-la-realta-su-economia-e-lavoro/ on Thu, 10 Nov 2022 07:12:19 +0000.