This is why the booster dose is needed. Gimbe Report
On average, over 460 thousand third doses per day and + 13.8% of new vaccinates in the last week, but according to the Gimbe Foundation it is not enough. All the details
The Gimbe Foundation also in the week 15-21 December noted, compared to the previous one , a net increase in new cases (177,257 vs 124,568) and deaths (882 vs 663), as well as hospitalizations with symptoms (8,381 vs 7,163) and in therapy intensive (1,012 vs 863). Data that, according to Gimbe, leave no doubt about the need to accelerate with the booster dose.
WHY YOU NEED THE BOOSTER DOSE
The need for the booster dose, the report reads, is well documented by data from the Higher Institute of Health (ISS) which demonstrate the reduction in vaccination efficacy after 150 days from the completion of the primary course.
In particular, it was noted that the effectiveness on diagnosis drops on average from 73.4% for those vaccinated within 150 days to 35.8% for those vaccinated for more than 150 days, to then go back to 75.5% after the recall. Furthermore, the efficacy on severe disease falls on average from 92.7% for those vaccinated within 150 days to 82.6% for those vaccinated for more than 150 days, and then rises to 93.4% after the booster.
Overall, in people vaccinated with a complete cycle (plus any booster dose), compared to those not vaccinated, the incidence of diagnoses (by 62.7-78.9%) and especially of serious disease is reduced in the various age groups. (83-93.3% for ordinary hospitalizations; 91.4-97% for intensive care) and death (78.3-96.3%).
HOW MANY THIRD DOSES WERE ADMINISTRATED
As of December 22 (update 07.18) 15,866,554 third doses were administered with a 7-day moving average that exceeds 460,000 doses per day – “insufficient” for the Foundation to cover 17 million people by the end of the year.
According to the official audience (n. 31,001,107) the national coverage rate for third doses is 51.2% with clear regional differences, from 38.6% in Sicily to 62.4% in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano.
THE FORECASTS OF GIMBE
Despite the exceeding of the targets set, the people who have completed the vaccination cycle for more than 150 days and therefore candidates to receive the third dose by 31 December would be over 33.5 million. Despite considering this number overestimated (impossible to separate the under 18, those recovered for less than 5 months and the deceased) and considering that as of December 21st over 15.8 million third doses have been administered, they would be entitled to the third dose by the end of the year over 17 millions of people: a number unattainable with current targets.
VACCINATES INCREASE 5-11 BUT DECREASE AMONG THE OVER 12
In the week of December 13-19, the number of new vaccinated people, Gimbe said, rose to 274,143 (+ 13.8%) compared to the 240,918 of the previous week: however, compared to 76,822 new vaccinated in the 5-11 range (40% of 13.8% total of new vaccinated) the number of over 12s dropped (-18.1% compared to the previous week).
Of the 9.67 million people without even a dose as of December 21st, 3.55 million belong to the 5-11 age group in which the administration has just begun and the 2.37 million over 50s at high risk of severe illness and hospitalization.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/ecco-perche-la-dose-booster-serve-report-gimbe/ on Thu, 23 Dec 2021 13:13:11 +0000.