Türkiye, is this the beginning of the end of the Erdogan era? The professor’s doubts Donelli
Economic issues led to the defeat of Erdogan's party in the municipal elections. But it is too early to say that the Erdogan era is coming to an end. The analysis of Federico Donelli, professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste and author of “Islamic Sovereignty. Erdogan and the return of great Türkiye"
Last weekend's municipal elections in Turkey harshly punished President Erdogan and his AKP party but, underlines Professor Federico Donelli, whoever is the cause of his suffering should cry for himself.
In this interview with Start Magazine, the professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste and author of various essays on Erdogan's policies including “Islamic Sovereignty. Erdogan and the return of great Turkey" explains all the reasons for a defeat that was not only sensational but above all self-inflicted.
This round of elections in Türkiye has been full of surprises, but what was the most striking one?
The most striking was not only the victory of the opposition, but the fact that a single party like the CHP won on its own without running within a cartel as it had done in the previous presidential elections without winning them. This time, however, he achieved real triumphs such as the positions of mayor in Istanbul and Ankara.
Then?
The second new element is the emergence of an Islamist party different from that of President Erdogan, from which he had actually broken away. His statement gives us the measure of how deep-rooted the uneasiness towards the AKP was.
A real rejection?
Yes, but people have been asking for change for some time even within that party, which has a clear problem with the ruling class and also with leadership. But more than Erdogan, voters are fed up with his circle, that is, the yes-men he has surrounded himself with over the years.
The international press converges in indicating the economic malaise of the Turks as the main cause of the AKP's debacle. Do you agree?
That economic malaise is profound and felt by the vast majority of Erdogan's own electorate, including its conservative components and especially among the older classes.
What faults are attributed to the president?
The element that dealt a very hard blow to the economy corresponds to Erdogan's populist phase between 2018 and 2021, when he tried to manage Turkish monetary policy with measures that many defined as "Erdoganomics" and which were very far from the conventional rules of economics.
For example?
The most striking example is his opposition to interest rates, for reasons that some link to his Islamic beliefs and others to questions of principle. Whatever the reasons, it is in that decidedly unorthodox way that Erdogan tried to gain a hold on the electorate.
Now, however, the economy, and above all the voters, are presenting the bill.
Yes, Erdogan is paying for it personally despite the fact that the Turkish economy is growing. In fact, the consequences of hyperinflation and the devaluation of the lira are too strong.
What will change now?
The voters will now force the president to rethink the complete centralization of power pursued and implemented in recent years and which has especially affected the manifestation of dissent. In a certain sense we can say that the precarious Turkish democracy has shown that it has the antibodies, and in my opinion this must convince the critics of this country to reject the frequent comparisons with authoritarian countries such as Iran or Russia.
In short, civil society reacted.
Certainly, and – this must be underlined – not only the secular component but also the conservative component which until yesterday voted en masse for Erdogan. Everyone without distinction appears to be in favor of a system that is more democratic and transparent, and this is undoubtedly the salient fact of these elections.
So is the Erdogan era coming to an end?
I would be cautious about this. Having studied Turkey for a long time, I have heard this prediction made several times, which was sensationally denied just last year with his re-election.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/turchia-e-linizio-della-fine-dellera-di-erdogan-i-dubbi-del-prof-donelli/ on Wed, 03 Apr 2024 06:47:12 +0000.