Ukraine: Putin’s disasters, Biden’s victories over gas
Washington pressed for Russian gas supplies to be replaced by US LNG. For Biden a victory not only political, but commercial. Thanks to the higher revenues, he will be able to reduce the imbalance that has marked his country's balance of payments for years compared to the EU. It had been Donald Trump's dream. Polillo's analysis
A real disaster. It will take time to understand the perverse effects of this war. The one about women, old people and children have already been seen. They saw each other in those desperate looks, in those wordless farewells on the frontier of a foreign country, albeit a friend. In the destruction of families: who could, even if barely holding a rifle, return to the hell of Mariupol; the others set out towards an uncertain destiny. Unfortunately for many of them there will be no satisfaction when the culprit of this new "useless massacre" pays for the crimes committed.
Because in the end Vladimir Putin will pay. Quem Iuppiter vult perdendo dementat prius: (Jupiter first takes away the minds of those he wants to lose) and Putin has long lost his mind. He lost it when he decided on a war that did not respond to anything other than the impulses of a hard power, which he considered unassailable. The power not of a tyrant, but of a modern satrap who uses his people as cannon fodder in a war without construct and strategy.
He hadn't even bothered to study the terrain. To grasp, if they existed, the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy to be conquered. He thought that the massive deployment of military means was enough to terrorize a people, led by a "comedian" ready to give in to the awe of the KGB. And then the eyes of those toy soldiers sent to the slaughterhouse. Other than warriors of the great Russian army. Conscript boys betrayed by their own officers. Taken from the most distant places of the great steppe, to escape the danger of a possible entente with the enemy. Deploy like skittles in a mock drill, to be cut down by a real war. Revolting cynicism, which nevertheless did not help because the occupation, instead of moving forward, got bogged down.
But Putin had not even grasped the malaise that had been spreading from the very beginning in the upper military spheres. That embarrassing scene with the head of intelligence services, Sergei Naryshkin, which today, in light of the difficulties encountered, with its apparent embarrassment, takes on a profoundly different meaning. It was not the attitude of those who did not understand, but of those who tried to warn, without incurring the wrath of the tyrant. And then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who goes missing for 13 days. Only to reappear (a heart attack?) With a debilitated face.
These are elements that make us think. They highlight a mixture of amateurism and adventurism, which has no justification whatsoever. Putin wanted to bend NATO and the West and instead made them both more united and cohesive. Before the aggression he had created fifth columns, within the individual European countries, which the war disrupted. He also succeeded in an impossible undertaking: to downsize the role of Germany, forced by events to take a more collaborative attitude, giving reason to Washington, which, for some time, had been pressing for Russian gas supplies to be replaced by LNG: liquefied natural gas. produced by them.
For Biden a victory not only political, but commercial. Will sell more in Europe. Thanks to the higher revenues, deriving from gas supplies, he will be able to reduce the imbalance that for years has marked the balance of payments of his country, compared to the Old Continent. It had been Donald Trump's dream, which he had tried to overwhelm – the tariffs on European imports – that was his. Biden, on the other hand, will do it with elegance in the name of a solidarity that the Kremlin's strategies have strengthened. A masterpiece, compared to the crudeness of oligarchs unable to defend their real interests from the desire for greatness of their leader.
For the Russian economy, as a whole, a more than heavy setback. The collapse of the largest sales market in the world. Relative gas and oil supplies may be diverted to China. But it would always be a makeshift solution, according to the balance of forces that exist between this reality, albeit rapidly expanding, and the rest of the "free world". A little less than a third: considering the specific weight of each economy on world GDP, according to data from the Monetary Fund.
To understand the madness of the gesture, which is changing the geopolitics of the world, it is enough to look at the material interests at stake. Russia, together with the United States and Saudi Arabia, are the main oil producers. With one difference, however, Russia's leadership in gas is incontrovertible. Its natural reserves are in fact equal to 63.9 per cent of the total, at least according to the data released by the Oil Union. In 2018, Russian gas production accounted for 22 percent of the world total. Of which about 30 per cent exported.
On the other hand, crude oil reserves are more contained, equal to 6.2 per cent of the total. Instead, the trading capacity is intense. Also in 2018, its daily production was 11.4 million barrels per day, 20 percent of non-OPEC production. Second exporting country, after Saudi Arabia, with 5.2 million barrels per day, equal to 45.6 per cent of daily production. But what matters most in this complex geography is the cost of extraction. In Russia among the lowest: equal, according to the IMF, to 3.4 dollars a barrel, just slightly higher than that of Saudi Arabia, equal, however, to 2.8 dollars. Against a price that is close to 120 dollars a barrel. Reserves that will remain, at least in part, frozen.
The availability of this immense wealth, starting from 2000 – the time when the exploitation of the enormous Siberian deposits began – should have led to an unprecedented development of the country. If the relative resources had not been dissipated to the advantage of a small caste of oligarchs, with more boorish than opulent consumption. On the other hand, the growth rate of the Russian economy since 2007 has been more than modest. Even lower than that of Saudi Arabia, whose population, however, is less than a quarter of that of Russia. Elements that should be the subject of careful reflection by those who, even in Italy, defend the regime, confusing the just yearning for peace with an unconditional surrender.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/ucraina-i-disastri-di-putin-le-vittorie-di-biden-sul-gas/ on Sun, 27 Mar 2022 12:24:53 +0000.