War, is it time for a negotiation?
With the initial plan failing, and Russia having no men to commit to regaining its lost positions, perhaps the time has come to start thinking about a negotiation. Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
The heroism and determination of a people, together with the solidarity and commitment of the West, have cornered Vladimir Putin, turning him into a monster. Whose reaction was cruel and angry. Those one hundred missiles launched on the main cities of Ukraine, with the intent of killing, maiming, scarring dozens of unarmed civilians are proof of this. Cruelty and strategic weakness: this is the double component that characterized the descent into hell of the Russian leaders. And the accelerated turnover of generals and officers will certainly not be enough to make up for lost time.
Think back to how it all began. What must have seemed an "invincible armada" deployed on the borders of Ukraine. Simple military exercises: the first lie of Putin and his acolytes, while American intelligence tried, in vain, to warn about the real intentions of the Kremlin. So those hundreds of vehicles and armored vehicles heading towards Kiev. So many that they clog the streets and slow down the blitzkrieg themselves. That action, studied on the German manuals, which, in a flash, should have led to the annihilation of the neo-Nazis (by the way, what is their end?) To “replace the Zelenksy government with good people and come back”. According to the Gospel of Silvio Berlusconi.
At the origin of the term "special military operation" was not only the attempt to gild the pill to avoid internal repercussions. It was Goliath's presumption towards David. The idea that a great military empire, such as the Russian Federation, among other things equipped with nuclear claws, would have littered a reaping army, as that of Ukraine seemed to be. Such was the disproportion of the means. Obviously underestimating the strength of those who fight for their freedom and who are willing to die, rather than fall back into the clutches of that despotic regime, which has the insignia of Moscow.
This hypothesis failed and a hasty retreat to the Donbass began, it seemed that a "plan B", albeit a fallback, could be successful. Conquer all of southeastern Ukraine (Donetsk oblast
Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) and then annexed them, in a farce referendum, to the mother country Russia. Then issue a warning to mariners. Any attack on the sacred soil of Russia, extended to the new lands, would have resulted in heavy reprisals. Up to and including the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. That plan cannot be said to have succeeded. The Ukrainian counter-offensive was, in many ways, devastating. Not only the annexed oblasts are paying the price, but Crimea itself, with the truck – bomb that blew up the Kerch bridge.
The "plan B" was also to be the sop for an internal public opinion, less and less acquiescent. Suddenly decided to take to the streets against the hypothesis of a mobilization, albeit partial, of the reservists. New cannon fodder to compensate for the ignorance of the various generals and to indulge the delirium of great power of those who longed for the return of the era of the great Tsars. Daydreams, destined to turn into a nightmare in the face of the flight abroad of thousands of possible conscripts. And in the spread of street protests, albeit fiercely repressed by the regime police. Elements that have contributed to making the progressive isolation of the nomenclature in power more and more evident. While the allies themselves (China and India) did not hide their growing perplexities.
In those 100 missiles launched, in retaliation, of which it was said at the beginning there is, therefore, all the exasperation (which rhymes with desperation) of the Kremlin. A pure and simple revenge, rather than a war action corresponding to some strategy. As such understood and condemned by the overwhelming majority of the countries present in the UN General Assembly. A new bitter political defeat of Putin, guilty of having put simple physical strength in the place of reason. A new weakness, immediately grasped by Zelenksy and the Western allies, now willing to provide those anti-aircraft defenses that will prevent Soviet missiles from causing further disasters.
Once the initial plan failed, plan B itself proved to be not very credible, since Russia, at least at the moment, does not have the human strength to commit to regaining its lost positions, the time has perhaps come to start thinking about a possible negotiation. Not only a generalized wish, but the reflection of those underground movements that can already be glimpsed among the two great antagonists: Russia on the one hand, the USA on the other. Who knows if the breezy meeting between Putin and Biden, during the next G20 meeting, will take place. But the very fact that we talk about it shows how times have changed. The stalemate in military action has shown that neither belligerent is capable of winning the war. And then, reversing the reasoning of Von Clausewitz, all that remains is to return to politics.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/negoziato-russia-guerra-ucraina/ on Wed, 12 Oct 2022 13:03:31 +0000.