What does Italy risk on gas with the Azerbaijan war?
The military operation launched by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh raises fears of the outbreak of a widespread war that could affect gas supplies. This is what Italy risks
Azerbaijan has launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh , a separatist territory located within its borders but controlled by Armenia, to which it is linked for ethnic and religious reasons. A new war in Nagorno-Karabakh could also have repercussions on energy supplies to Italy and Europe.
Azerbaijan has already been a very important supplier of oil to Italy for many years, and more recently – since the need for a separation from Russian fossil fuels became apparent – it has seen its importance as an exporter of natural gas grow. In March last year, then Prime Minister Mario Draghi had discussed by telephone with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev about “strengthening bilateral cooperation, particularly in the energy sector”.
HOW MUCH IS AZERBAIJAN WORTH IN ITALY'S OIL AND GAS IMPORTS
The reference infrastructure for gas trade between Italy and Azerbaijan is the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline, or TAP. It came into operation at the end of 2020 – it also supplies, in small parts, Greece and Bulgaria – and has a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year, possibly expandable up to 20 billion. The TAP starts from Greece, crosses Albania and flows into Puglia; it connects to the network that connects the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field with Turkey.
In 2021, Azerbaijan was Italy's main crude oil supplier, with a share of 23 percent , followed by Libya (19 percent), Iraq (14 percent) and Russia (10 percent). As for natural gas, in the first quarter of 2023 Azerbaijan accounted for 14.8 percent of Italian imports, preceded by Algeria (31.5 percent) and followed by Russia (8.8 percent) and Libya (4.2 percent).
According to forecasts , in 2023 Azerbaijan will send 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, compared to 11.4 billion in 2022 and 8.1 billion in 2021.
THE SHAH DENIZ FIELD AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS GAS PIPELINE
The Shah Deniz field, from which the majority of Azerbaijani gas exports circulating in the Southern Gas Corridor (of which TAP is part) comes, is located in the deep waters of the Caspian Sea, seventy kilometers south-east of Baku . The gas extracted here passes through the South Caucasus pipeline, which does not cross the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh further south. However, a widespread and high-intensity conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia could have repercussions on energy infrastructure and fuel transit.
COMMITMENTS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION
Azeri hydrocarbons are fundamental for the success of European plans for energy independence from Russia in 2027. There is a partnership between Brussels and Baku, also on energy, which was strengthened in July last year precisely with a view to detaching from gas Russian: the two parties have committed to doubling the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor in order to bring flows towards the European Union to at least 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027.
Reliance on Azerbaijan risks becoming a political problem for the European Union if – as has already happened – the European institutions were to condemn Baku's treatment of human rights and fundamental freedoms. When Brussels sent a civilian mission to the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, with the aim of patrolling the region and avoiding dangerous escalations, President Aliyev criticized the alleged foreign interference in relations between his country and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/italia-gas-azerbaigian-guerra-nagorno-karabakh/ on Wed, 20 Sep 2023 12:49:46 +0000.