What German entrepreneurs think of Olaf Scholz

18 August 20204 years ago babelfish

All the reactions of the economic world to the candidacy of the Social Democrat Scholz for the chancellery. The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti

He's good, it's a pity he's a Social Democrat. This sentence could summarize the overall judgment of the German business world on Olaf Scholz, the future aspiring chancellor for the SPD. A forked evaluation, not dictated, however, by a prejudicial opposition on the part of the company to the party that belonged to Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, chancellors who (at least the last two) enjoyed strong sympathies especially in the circles of large industry.

THE CANDIDATE LIKES THE PARTY LESS

The world of economics (not just Germany) traditionally loves moderate political leaders, and with Scholz we would be there. What is not convincing is the new leadership of the party, embodied by the two presidents elected out of thin air, who emerged on the wave of an internal rebellion that has matured against the long management of the Schröderians, of which Scholz paradoxically represents a sort of last Indian.

The contradiction makes industrialists suspicious and overshadows the qualities of the candidate who should instead attract them. Scholz himself, now an appreciated Minister of Finance in the most difficult economic crisis since the end of the Second World War, does not hide his closeness to the business world: in his first post-candidacy speeches he underlined the importance of family businesses in Germany's economic stability. and he recalled the concrete collaboration developed with the industrial fabric of Hamburg in his long season as mayor of the Hanseatic city. Different tones than those used by other exponents today on the rise in the party. Not only by the two new presidents, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, but also by what has long been considered the budding leader, that Kevin Künert who made his bones in the congressional battles against participation in the Grosse Koalition and jumped with the new leadership directly from the youth guide (Jusos) to the vice presidency. While Scholz in recent days, in a meeting in Hamburg, extolled the policies of support to companies in the covid emergency, Künert philosophized on the hypothesis of collectivization of private property, taking as an example the automobile company BMW.

ENTREPRENEURS FEAR AN ALLIANCE WITH THE LINKE

Doubts that are reflected in the statements of some entrepreneurs, interviewed by the business newspaper Handelsblatt . Ulrich Dietz of software services company Gft warns: the SPD is divided, and Scholz's race resembles a rowing competition in which if everyone doesn't row on the same side it will be difficult to win the gold medal.

Jürgen Heraeus, at the helm of the homonymous company specializing in precious metals and medical technology, a spearhead of German family entrepreneurship, expressly fears a left-wing government: it is a clever move by the SPD leadership to nominate a moderate to conquer the votes in the center and go up from the bottom by 15%. Scholz as a Trojan horse for the entry of the grandchildren of Sed (the state party of the GDR) into the government, but for him Heraeus has only words of praise: "He should not spend himself for such a majority, he is a man of good will, a honest social democrat who could well figure as chancellor ”.

For Reinhold von Eben-Worlée, president of the powerful association that represents family businesses, Scholz will not be able to emerge from the difficulties facing his party. “Even someone like him will not be able to hide the state in which the Social Democrats find themselves. Scholz understands the economy but he is the only one in the SPD, he lacks a solid team to adequately support him in the race for the chancellery ”. Those who lead the same association in Hamburg as Henning Fehrmann have a positive memory of his action as mayor: pragmatic, knowledgeable, attentive to detail. "It won over the majority of Hamburgers with a moderate and favorable economic policy," said Fehrmann, who then noted how, precisely in those years, Hamburg lost ground in competition with other regional metropolises.

DIGITAL MANAGERS SUGGEST A SPECIFIC MINISTRY

Perhaps more pragmatic, the managers of digital companies do not draw up tables and do not make judgments, but offer suggestions. "From our point of view, the creation of a ministry for digitization would be the necessary condition to push Germany on the path of modernization", said Marco Junk, secretary of the Federal Union for the digital economy: "The experience of the covid showed how urgent digital investments are for education, administration and for the modernization of the entire German industry ”. An invitation launched to the SPD candidate also by Oliver Süme, president of the Internetverband Eco: as Minister of Finance Scholz knows well the impact of digital technology on the production system of companies, he said, relaunching the idea of a special ministry that centralizes strategies policies.

FUEST (IFO): SCHOLZ TAKES DISTANCES FROM THE LINKE

But even among economists doubts are creeping into the appropriateness of a left majority. Clemans Fuest, president of the Ifo, is above all concerned about Linke, who is also in government in many eastern Länder and even at the head of Thuringia. But applying its economic and security policies at the national level would damage Germany enormously. "I would expect Scholz to officially rule out an alliance with Linke, especially as his positions are incompatible." Examples? Fuest mentions: the proposal to dissolve NATO and the introduction of a 5% equity on assets exceeding one million euros.

POLLS: THE APPLICATION EFFECT IS LACK

The surveys carried out in the days following the announcement of the candidacy confirm the cold reception, not only from the economic world. There has been some movement, but nothing that suggests great encouragement. On the other hand, Scholz is not a driving force, that is not his quality, and perhaps it is even better this way, if you remember what happened to the candidacy of Martin Schulz last time, greeted by a sort of media madness that credited him for many months as a favorite over Angela Merkel and then, at the ballot box, he achieved the worst result of the glorious and over one hundred year old social democratic history. The first survey, commissioned by the private TV network RTL / NTV, assigns 16% to the SPD, just two points more than previous quotations, a percentage that does not allow overtaking the Green, accredited by 20%. Two points down, but always at a safe distance, the CDU (36%), two points less the left of Linke (6%), which according to the pollsters Scholz would have stolen the consensus: he would therefore have fished on the left and not in the center, as he hoped. Afd's nationalist right would be 9%, FDP liberals 6.

Some more comfort comes from the survey commissioned by Bild, which accredits the SPD by 18% (+3 compared to the pre-candidacy survey), but above all places it in second place, two points ahead of the Greens still at 16%. The other parties: Cdu at 36%, Afd at 11, Linke at 8 and Fdp at 6. And although there is still more than a year to vote and many variables are still open (the development of the pandemic, the evolution of the crisis economic, the name of the new leader of the CDU, that of the candidate for the chancellery of the Union), at the moment the hypothesis of a left-wing coalition between the SPD, Verdi and Linke is rejected by the polls and Scholz's battle is reduced to bringing social democrats above 20% and to beat the Greens to keep the role of junior partner in the first Grosse Koalition after Merkel.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-pensano-gli-imprenditori-tedeschi-di-olaf-scholz/ on Tue, 18 Aug 2020 13:00:07 +0000.