What happens (and why) between Israelis and Palestinians. Cesi report
"These events clearly photograph the political failure of the Israeli and Palestinian ruling classes." Giuseppe Dentice's analysis for Cesi ( Center for international studies) chaired by Andrea Margelletti
Starting from 10 May, a new escalation of violence has been recorded in Jerusalem and Gaza, a direct consequence of recent events that are profoundly marking the urban landscape of the Holy City and potentially worsening the humanitarian one in the Strip. The eviction orders authorized by the Israeli Supreme Court of 28 Palestinian families from the Arab neighborhoods of Sheikh Jarrah and Silwan and the clashes between Hamas and the Israeli government caused by the launch of more than 800 rockets in just over 24 hours from Gaza to Tel Aviv, Lod , Ashqelon, Ashdod, Acri, Ramla and Dimona are the result of a condition of latent tension that has found its outlet in political violence. If the events in Jerusalem acted as a detonator, the launch of rockets from Gaza towards Israel and the subsequent military escalation of Tel Aviv certified the explosion of yet another crisis that could characterize this cyclical phase of violence with varying intensity for a long time.
The causes that move the events of these days, therefore, are to be found in the Palestinian expropriations in East Jerusalem, which clearly show what is an urban battle to reshape the Jewish identity of the Holy City. A process that has started a long time ago, since 1967, since the Israeli military force, once the Six Day War was won and the eastern districts of Jerusalem occupied, implemented a dual policy, aimed both at expropriating the assets of the communities. Arabs present there, both to expel them from the city in order to preserve a Jewish majority that was able to counter the Arab-Palestinian demographic boom. Therefore, what is happening today in Sheikh Jarrah, Silwan and in the other Arab neighborhoods is an inexorable process of "Judaization" of Jerusalem, with the inherent intent of preventing not only any division of the city with the Palestinians, but also the formation of an independent Palestinian state that has its moral, identity and political capital in East Jerusalem. In fact, this is an ideological and political campaign that risks opening a Pandora's box from which a Third Intifada could emerge with proportions and intensities that are difficult to classify.
There are many similarities and common elements with the events of 1987-1993 and the early 2000s, starting with that sense of frustration that recurs in violent and unclassifiable forms every time the Middle Eastern Peace Process (MEPP) encounters a stalemate, or more simply it is ignored by one of the two parties because it is not considered more appropriate, outdated and / or impracticable. The clear reference is addressed to Israel which, today more than ever, has a broad international strength and legitimacy to be able to implement unilateral initiatives also towards the Palestinians, enjoying in this sense the greatest of historical paradoxes, namely the support of the main leaderships. Arab-Muslim. However, this support is lacking at the popular level, given that the societies of Arab and Muslim Middle Eastern countries continue to tirelessly support what is a battle of identity rather than of values.
In other words, the Jerusalem events and the rain of rockets between Gaza and Israeli cities show two sides of the same coin, with clearly devastating potential both for the Palestinian and Israeli social fabric and in terms of humanitarian values. The reasons are essentially due to two factors: first of all, the inability and inadequacy of the Israeli and Palestinian leadership in managing and governing their respective entities, without giving rise to dangerous populist processes – especially in terms of feelings – and riding, for pure speculation, the uneasiness in favor of some personal gain. This can be seen in this sense both in the reckless postponement of the Palestinian elections by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which would likely have seen a victory for Hamas, and in the attempt by the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to exploit the crisis. underway to undermine any form of political negotiation between parliamentary opposition groups, which could have led to the end of his government experience. Furthermore, the fast and changing events of these hours explain the rationale of the main actors involved: Hamas, ANP and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Islamic movement has used the events in East Jerusalem and the launches of rockets to and from Gaza to strengthen its Palestinian power and to demonstrate once again the inadequacy of the PA in speaking out for the demands of the Palestinians. In this sense, what is happening is an indirect message to the PA and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas. The latter in particular, continuing to shy away from the possibility of reorganizing the entire Palestinian organization from the very beginning, risks being definitively overtaken and overtaken by the dynamic leadership of Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh (respectively political leader and spiritual guide of Hamas ) in all political battles against Israel, thus leaving the PA in a condition of marginality and agony. On the other hand, Netanyahu used the opportunity represented by the rockets fired on Israeli cities to flex his muscles, perpetuate his share of legitimacy in Israeli politics and, finally, to be credited for the umpteenth time as the only man capable of defending the Country from all internal (Hamas) and external (Iran) threats.
Secondly, and directly connected to the previous point, there are the strong feelings of dissatisfaction that feed new radicalism and extremism of thought on both sides, since these situations are a direct expression of short-sighted or completely wrong political choices in terms of political calculation. . This interminable sequence of tragic events, which returns to more or less regular cycles, has not only fueled incendiary propaganda, but has eloquently sharpened the divisions within their respective societies, unable today to marry middle or more tolerant positions and tend to shift the ideological axis on extreme visions of opposing specularity. In fact, the violence in East Jerusalem and Gaza show the same root, which originates in a by now worn-out mechanism of exploitation of the crises which cannot or will not be put to an end.
In other words, these events clearly photograph the political failure of the Israeli and Palestinian ruling classes, where the East Jerusalem crisis was used instrumentally by both sides to forge the new escalation on Gaza. A sort of diversion in which – paradoxically – the violence in the Holy City risks being overshadowed if the events in the Strip take over, leading to shift the whole attention "In this perspective, the most dangerous option would be a Third Intifada that would risk opening a season of uncertainties and asymmetries with total repercussions in the entire Middle East, going beyond a mere conflict in Gaza ”4 global media towards the tight and overcrowded territory governed by Hamas.
(extract from a Cesi report; here the full version )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-succede-e-perche-fra-israeliani-e-palestinesi-report-cesi/ on Sat, 15 May 2021 07:13:27 +0000.