What happens in Chad between France, terrorism and oil

Chad has been at the forefront of efforts against armed terrorist groups (GATs) that are rampant in the Sahara-Sahel region. In fact, Chad has armed forces whose effectiveness is recognized both by the partners of the G5 Sahel (Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad) and by France. According to the 2021 Global Fire Power ranking, Chad remains the leading military power in the G5 Sahel. But above all, Chad is an ally of France.

In fact, let us not forget that France's support for Déby the father was total: financial aid, political support, military deterrence, everything was put in place to keep the regime in power. And despite this, the current crisis has taken France by surprise, which hoped to stabilize the Déby presidency with the help of the army.

What assessment does France give of the current situation?

It makes sense to question the legitimacy of the CMT, which instituted a curfew, put an end to the work of Parliament and closed the borders.

The constitutionality of this institution can indeed be questioned, and its commitment to organize elections within 18 months logically arouses the distrust of many observers and organizations. However, the security situation dictates an exceptional political state with, as a top priority, the need to avoid new political instabilities in one of the Sahel states. Precisely for this reason France has de facto supported the coup of the son of the slain sovereign.

The main danger lies in a general destabilization of the Saharo-Sahelian region, even as France is reducing its military presence. Destabilization generates chaos, in turn conducive to armed Islamic groups and savage migrations due to increased violence and intercommunal clashes. The CMT guarantees political continuity and de facto security in Chad's commitment to the fight against the Islamist threat, preventing a rapid disintegration of the country. Above all, the Transitional Military Council helps maintain the military's political support for the regime by keeping it away from national political life. In short, it becomes for the French and not only to support the CMT to prevent terrorism from gaining the upper hand.

Other countries have not benefited from the same situation, if we compare it with that of Mali which suffered a new coup in May 2021. This event has provoked strong reactions within the African Union (AU) or in France, with questions real on the continuation of joint operations with the Malian armed forces, suspended for a while. A country on the verge of implosion, Mali contrasts with the stability that the CMT ensures, for the moment, in Chad. Without internal stability, there can be no coherent defense policy, especially if the army unit crumbles into a factional war.

THE JUDGMENTS ON THE CMT

The CMT will be judged on its ability to organize a democratic transition. Externally legitimate, the CMT will first be judged through the prism of Chad's internal politics. This is the fundamental question for the Chadians, the first concerned, and it requires a political response.

Some see it as a praetorian regime that replaces a regime deemed authoritarian, with a family dimension not foreign to Africa. Others deplore its unconstitutional character and the measures applied since its inception to ensure order in the country. Finally, the observers assure that Chad's fundamental problems, such as the distribution of resources, the balance between communities or the aspirations of young people, could not be answered in such a regime.

However, the CMT has pledged to hold democratic elections within 18 months. It enjoys international legitimacy, being the structure recognized by its main regional partners in the G5 Sahel, as well as by France. Aware of the imperative of stability, the international community and the African Union have not formally condemned the CMT, while insisting on the need to respect its commitments in favor of democratic transition. This situation therefore makes the CMT de facto the legitimate regime in Chad and Mahamat Déby its president.

Stability is the prerequisite for any democratic transition. It is impossible to initiate such a process in a context of civil war or serious internal conflicts. This is the first step, certainly insufficient, but fundamental, to consider any positive development. It could be argued that many regimes have rightly invoked the need for stability to remain in power, at the cost of means incompatible with human rights. This is true. But the CMT is still a young institution, whose action cannot yet be judged. Here it is necessary to observe and appreciate if there is indeed a positive evolution towards the organization of democratic elections that we can condemn or support. We must therefore be vigilant: what place is given to the opposition? Is a fairer distribution of resources on the CMT agenda?

CHAD PARTNERS MUST SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

Chad's partners must support the country's democratic transition. The CMT could indeed be an opportunity for Chad. The omnipresence of Idriss Déby, especially in the last two decades, could be an obstacle to the democratic transition. The latter is now a credible hypothesis. A window of opportunity opens up for Chadians, where change is possible. It is the political will of the CMT that will be decisive.

The establishment of the CMT can therefore be seen as a necessary evil, an essential step to ensure internal stability and the continuation of Chad's commitment to the fight against Islamic terrorism. For now, it's too early to condemn him. On the contrary, its partners can only welcome a situation that avoids chaos that is damaging to the region.

Over time, according to French analysts, it will be possible to evaluate CMT's policy, depending on whether or not it fulfills its commitments. The African Union and the international community, including France, could support the CMT in this arduous task. According to French scholars, in fact, it is necessary to avoid condemning too hastily a regime that is still young and that has not been able to demonstrate its true good faith. Only actions will allow him to be judged.

NATURAL RESOURCES

Ultimately, beyond the noble and commendable desire to counter terrorism, uranium and oil (vefi Elf and Chevron who collaborated in the 1990s) are certainly equally legitimate reasons to support African autocracies . Yesterday like today.