What I think of the Dpcm (and why the Immuni app is now useless). The prof. Parisi
Conversation of Ruggero Po with the taxman Giorgio Parisi, president of the National Academy of the Lincei, on Dpcm, app Immuni and more
The number of infections is growing. What to expect for the next few weeks? And what should be done? And what happens to the Immuni app?
Answering the questions of Ruggero Po – author of the audio-blog for Start Magazine – is Giorgio Parisi, president of the Accademia dei Lincei, one of the most respected Italian physicists in the world, who wrote in recent days together with 100 other scientists a call for more drastic measures.
HERE IS THE CONVERSATION OF RUGGERO PO WITH PROFESSOR PARISI, PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF LINCEI
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Drastic measures in the next 2 or 3 days to avoid hundreds of deaths a day in Italy from Covid-19: this is the appeal launched on October 23 by over one hundred scientists to the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, and to the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte .
THE APPEAL OF PROF.
"As scientists, researchers, university professors, we believe it is right and urgent to express our deepest concern regarding the current phase of spread of the Covid-19 pandemic", write the academics referring to the estimates released by physicist Giorgio Parisi, president of the National Academy of the Lincei, according to which the doubling in deaths that is being observed every week could soon lead to 400-500 deaths per day.
THE PARISI PROPOSAL
The researchers agree with Parisi's proposal to "take stringent and drastic measures in the next two or three days" and "the necessary reconciliation of the needs of the economy and the protection of jobs with those of containing the spread of the infection must now leave room the pressing need to safeguard the individual and collective right to health enshrined in art. 32 of the Constitutional Charter as inviolable ".
WHO ARE THE SIGNATORS
“The necessary reconciliation of the needs of the economy and the protection of workplaces with those of containing the spread of the infection must now leave room for the pressing need to safeguard the right to individual and collective health enshrined in art. 32 of the Constitutional Charter as inviolable ", warn the signatories of the appeal, including Gianfranco Viesti, economist of the University of Bari, Carlo Doglioni geologist and president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Alfio Quarteroni, applied mathematician, Enzo Marinari, full professor of Physics at Sapienza University, Roberta Calvano, full professor of Constitutional Law Unitelma Sapienza, Piero Marcati, Vice-Rector of the Gran Sasso Institute, Alessandra Celletti, astronomer, Vice President of Anvur.
WHAT DID PROF. PARISI
Without strong measures, in two weeks the deaths from Covid-19 could exceed 400 ″, the physicist Giorgio Parisi, of the Sapienza University of Rome, told Ansa . "In the last 20 days the number of cases has been doubling every week – he notes – and for a week the number of deaths has been following that of cases". The number of deaths began to double, with a delay of 7 days compared to the positive cases.
RISK OF DEATH
“What seems certain – continues Parisi – is that from the number of cases today we can trace the number of deaths in a week. For example, the number of cases yesterday corresponds to about 200 deaths in one week and the following week could further double ”. Consequently, he added, "if the measures adopted a few days ago do not have effects, it will be difficult to prevent 400-500 deaths per day". Considering this trend in the growth of the epidemic, also discussed by Parisi in the press, a proportional increase in hospitalizations in intensive care facilities is also foreseeable and in this way "there would be a risk of collapse of the health system".
THE URGENCY OF THE MEASURES
For this reason, according to the physicist, “measures must be taken with the utmost urgency to halt the increase in the spread of the epidemic. If the measures were too strong, after 10 to 15 days they could be reduced ”. This is because "the effects of any measure on deaths are seen after 15 days". For Parisi it is "difficult to say whether a weak or strong lockdown is necessary, but decisions must be made immediately".
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HERE IS THE FULL TEXT
For the attention of the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella and the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte.
As scientists, researchers, university professors, we believe it is right and urgent to express our deepest concern regarding the current phase of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and we believe it is useful to report to the attention of the institutions, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella and the Government, in the person of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the estimates reported in the article by the President of the Accademia dei Lincei, Professor Giorgio Parisi.
We would like to fully comply with the request contained in the article to take stringent and drastic measures in the next two or three days, in order to avoid that, according to the estimates reported in the article, the numbers of the infection in Italy inevitably arrive, in the absence of measures effective corrective measures, in the next three weeks, to produce several hundred deaths a day.
The necessary reconciliation of the needs of the economy and the protection of workplaces with those of containing the spread of the infection must now give way to the pressing need to safeguard the right to individual and collective health enshrined in art. 32 of the Constitutional Charter as inviolable.
The safeguarding of jobs, entrepreneurial and industrial activities, commercial establishments, and other activities would also inevitably be compromised as a result of an out-of-control spread of the pandemic that lasted for many months.
Taking effective measures now serves precisely to save the economy and jobs. The longer you wait, the more the measures you take will have to be harder, last longer, thus producing a greater economic impact.
This is why the contagion must be stopped now, with adequate measures, and that is why we ask to intervene now in an adequate way, in compliance with the constitutional guarantees, but in full protection of the health of citizens, which goes hand in hand and is also necessary and functional to economic well-being.
In faith,
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/giorgio-parisi/ on Sun, 25 Oct 2020 13:15:48 +0000.