What is said in Germany between electoral polls and swab scams
Facts, controversies and political scenarios in Germany. The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti from Berlin
It was the week of the counter-overtaking, at least in the virtual world of polls. The two parties of the Union (the CDU and the Bavarian sister company CSU) have regained the first place in the approval of the voters, even detaching by 3-4 points depending on the surveys. Armin Laschet's party ranks between 25 and 26%, the Greens follow fixed at 22. It is too early to say whether the Baerbock effect, the novelty triggered by the ecologists of a young and dynamic chancellery candidate, has stalled, perhaps at first, inevitable gaffes of the election campaign. What is certain is that the irresistible rise of the Grünen has marked a setback, without the standard-bearer of the post-Merkel CDU having taken any memorable action of his own.
After a dazzling start to the election campaign, Baerbock stumbled upon the first banana peel, a delayed notification to the tax authorities of fees for extra-parliamentary activities received in previous months. He was not the only deputy (a similar inconvenience also involved the parliamentary-epidemiologist of the SPD Karl Lauterbach), but the affair undermined the moral aura of the ecologists. Then came the "internal" mess on arms in Ukraine with the co-president of the party, Robert Habeck: on a visit to Kiev, Habeck had declared himself in favor of the delivery of weapons to the Ukrainians in an anti-Russian defense key, collecting a later denied by Baerbock who had to face the pandemonium that broke out in the pacifist base. Finally, some clarifications on the government program, although not new, have rekindled the controversy over the costs of the green change that the Grünen are proposing to the country: from the abolition of short-haul flights to the increase in excise duties on fuels, one begins to wonder who it will pay for the new policies and if the green agenda is not a luxury for the wealthy.
That was enough to cool the initial enthusiasm, freeze the growth trend in the polls and relegate the party to second place in the ranking. Which is always a great achievement that will most likely open the doors of the government, but would hand over the chancellery to the conservative candidate.
Meanwhile, next Sunday the virtual numbers will experience a new, partial, verification with reality. The train of the regional elections stops in Saxony-Anhalt, a small Land in eastern Germany, where the CDU is threatened by Afd nationalists. Until a week ago, the radical right was even in the lead, but the latest polls indicate a counter-overtaking in this case as well. Elections in the eastern Länder are now a constant risk for traditional parties, but above all for the CDU, whose local cadres are often tempted by ways of agreeing with Afd: a possibility that instead risks being paid very dearly. national. Unlike neighboring and larger Saxony and Thuringia, however, the local leadership of the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt is more cautious. Reiner Haselhoff leads the region in an unprecedented alliance with Spd and Verdi born in 2016 just as a health cordon against nationalists. The consolidation of Alternative für Deutschland over 20% demonstrates how much this alliance has not actually remedied the problems underlying the consent to Afd.
The recent statements by the head of the federal government for the eastern Länder Marco Wanderwitz (also CDU), who explained the success of the nationalists in the east as a product of a "socialization in years of dictatorship" and a "rooting of undemocratic ideas", aroused controversy and some discontent even within the CDU itself. To cover himself on the liberal-conservative side, Laschet embarked on the election campaign Friedrich Merz, the defeated challenger at the last congress, particularly appreciated by the eastern federations of the party. But at the same time he reaffirmed a clear distance from Afd with which he excluded any form of collaboration and opened a controversial front with the exponents of the so-called "Werteunion" (Union of values), a grouping of ultra-conservative exponents that technically are not part of the Cdu-Csu Union.
If the vote confirms the latest polls, Laschet could breathe a first sigh of relief and the CDU position itself in first place, following the 29% of five years ago. It would be a good encouragement for the most important national electoral campaign, especially since after Afd the other parties would come out of the polls of Saxony-Anhalt more or less all aligned around 10%. In short, no boom for the Greens: certainly this small region has never been an easy terrain for ecologists, but the impression is confirmed that the rise of the Greens is not unstoppable.
At the national level, however, the assessment of the management of the pandemic counts more. And the improvement in the numbers of the Union can be linked to that of infections. The vaccination campaign continues tightly, the third wave has been interrupted, infections are collapsing everywhere thanks to the doses and the summer finally arrived. The national incidence has dropped to 35 new cases per week per 10,000 inhabitants, just a month ago it was over 170. Reopening continues, albeit under strict hygiene measures, trade and gastronomy are breathing again, social tension is easing.
The only problem that can reawaken the mood is linked to the new scandal on tampon scams. This time it is not a question of trafficking for the purchase of masks, but of deceptions in quick tests, which have become central to the current Covid containment strategy . They are now widespread, in schools, in the workplace, so much so that the media have renamed Germany a Testrepublik. And they are mandatory in order to take advantage of the many reopenings in progress: sit at a table in a bar or restaurant, visit a museum, go shopping in the shops. They can be done almost anywhere, test-centers have sprung up on every street corner, in Berlin practically all the clubs in the city – still closed – have recycled into the new business, many kiosks have sprung up like mushrooms in the shopping or restaurant areas. And it is a business: the State pays 18 euros for each test performed, 12 euros for the time and commitment in carrying out each test and another 6 euros for the material used, made available by the various health offices. Anyone can open a tampon center, no medical preparation is required, just take a very short online course.
Now it has been realized that many certificates are bogus, that the centers claim to churn out many more tests than those actually done, moreover all with negative results, to collect state money. The judiciary has started in two Länder (North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria), but the belief is that scams are much more widespread. Pending the outcome of the investigation, Health Minister Jens Spahn was again targeted, accused of failing to supervise. We will see if the umpteenth rebound of responsibility between Spahn and the regions will again harm the electoral polls of his party, the CDU.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/germania-sondaggi-tamponi/ on Wed, 02 Jun 2021 06:57:04 +0000.