What Putin does not say about the war on Ukraine. General Cuzzelli’s analysis
What are Putin's real goals? And what do the failures of Russia's military operations in Ukraine conceal? The analysis of the retired general Giorgio Cuzzelli, lecturer in security and strategic studies at the Lumsa University
Russia prepares for the decisive attack on the city of Mariupol . The ultimatum from Moscow to the Ukrainian forces barricaded in the Azovstal steel plant has expired. Both soldiers of the Ukrainian army and fighters of the controversial Azov battalion ignored all ultimatums and did not give up.
Why Mariupol is so important
Mariupol is a very important city both from a media and military point of view, being an important piece of the chessboard on the southern front. “The complete possession of Mariupol means having the connection between Crimea and the Russian enclaves of Donbass – retired general Giorgio Cuzzelli, professor of security and strategic studies at Lumsa University , told Omnibus (La7). The episode of the steel plant is in fact little thing from a military point of view because Mariupol is already in the hands of the Russians. The resistance in the steel mill is not slowing the taking of the city because it is just an episode of resistance within an inhabited complex that has already been taken. The city and its hinterland have already been taken by the Russians, in the steel mill there is this core of heroic resistance that does not intend to give up but whose importance in the general economy is more symbolic than anything else ".
The second phase of the war
Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov, in a long exclusive interview with India Today , announced the start of a "next phase" of the special operation. "After an initial phase in which the objectives were not well understood, they have now rearticulated their device and the objective seems quite evident: with a pincer movement from the south and east, the Ukrainian forces protecting the Donbass are closed to eliminate them from the struggle. – added Cuzzelli, brigadier general of the Army -. Those who are deployed close to the Donbass are the most efficient forces, the most modern part of the Ukrainian army. What the Ukrainians have used to protect themselves so far are the men of the National Guard . Instead the noble, reactive, more incisive part of their reduced military instrument was already deployed behind the Donbass since 2014 and is the one that the Russians intend to eliminate in order to remove any threat to their subsequent actions ".
Putin's goals: to impress the West
During the conflict there was much debate on Russia's military strategy, coming to doubt the tactics put in place by the Red Army. “We have to ask ourselves what Vladimir Putin's goal is in this affair and I begin to doubt that the goal is Ukraine, the goal seems to me to be to give a clear signal to the West – explains prof. Cuzzelli -. A signal that passes through a conflict of friction from which the Russians are somehow convinced that they will emerge victorious in the long term by exploiting their incredible resistance which is recognized by history ”.
Mistakes or deliberate choices?
The objective of the war in Ukraine, therefore, would not be Ukraine but to make the neighbors (EU and NATO) understand how to behave near their borders. “The modalities of implementation we have seen so far would leave a student of the first year of war school in any army perplexed – underlined General Cuzzelli -. What appear to be absolutely sensational errors would not have been committed by a first-appointed second lieutenant of the Italian army in 1980 just out of the armored troops school of Caserta. You don't attack a town with tanks lined up, you don't attack a nation leaving its cities fully lit up at night. The first thing you do is reset the electricity and put everyone in the dark. We did this in Belgrade in 1998 and we did this in Tripoli in 2011. If a country is attacked , transport is blocked , but rail traffic continued, even four Prime Ministers of the Visegrad group arrived by train. So it is clear that here either someone is waging war with the handbrake on or the ultimate goals leave us highly perplexed. Because it is true that the Red Army is no longer what it once was, it is true that Russia is no longer what it used to be but that they are all stupid at the same time it seems strange to me ".
The economic war of the West
The continuation of the war effort in the long term will have to deal with the ability of economic sanctions to really hit Russia. "The West believes that through the economic war it is possible to stop the war being fought , Russia is convinced that with its own resources it is possible to overcome this stalemate determined by the economic offense of the West – added General Cuzzelli – . The estimates on the one hand tell us that the sanctions are having a very relative effect, on the other hand they tell us that the sanctions will hit the West instead. Could this be Putin's desired effect? I do not want at all costs to evoke an evil genius and I do not want to evoke conspiracies, I am not a conspirator but the way of acting of the Russians especially on the ground, dealing with professionals, leaves me perplexed ".
Ukraine pawn of a larger game
Putin's strategic political goal would see Ukraine as a pawn in a much bigger game than the confrontation between Russia and the West. "That clash has already begun in Munich in 2007 when Putin openly accused the US and the West of wanting to impose a world order that Russia, for a variety of reasons, is not happy with – explained Cuzzelli -. If these are the premises then all the inconsistencies we have seen in this war find a justification . But we are in the presence of a huge crystal ball that we are trying to scrutinize to understand ”.
The reasons for the war
In the course of his interview, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov argued that it was the enlargement of the Atlantic and European institutions that ignited the fuse of the Ukrainian conflict. "It is a thesis that from the international point of view, from the point of view of human rights and the right of self-determination of peoples, does not stand up, in the sense that every nation has the right to decide its own destiny and its system of alliances – continued the professor of Lumsa -. It is clear that in a framework of international equilibrium it is necessary to take into account the reasons of the other but also the other must understand when it is time to stop and it seems clear to me that Russia did not understand when it was time to stop ".
The military errors of the Red Army
Putin's strategy, however, made some errors of assessment. “The military failures suffered were not intentional. They were convinced they were entering Kiev as the Nazis entered Vienna in 1938 , between two cheering crowds waving flags – ironically prof. Cuzzelli -. They have fallen victim to the first flaw of analysts which is to fall in love with their opinions and seek confirmation of their opinions. Second problem, the Red Army is not what we saw on May 8, 1945 but it is very different and suffers from all the problems of the old Red Army: 20 years of Putinian modernization have not changed an army that has little autonomy, a overall very limited efficiency and a maneuverability that is limited to large concentrations of mass and fire. I would like to remind everyone that the Russian navy lost a submarine because an expired torpedo exploded in its launch chamber. It is the same Russia as Chernobyl , where a young and unprepared technician controlled by a drunken superintendent himself employed by an industry executive who did not want to compromise his career and caused the biggest nuclear disaster in Europe. This is Russia, we must not be surprised ”.
Nuclear weapons: Ukrainian pressure tools
"Russia is not considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine." This reassurance comes from Minister Lavrov who in his interview reiterates that Russia wants to use only conventional weapons. “ Putin is perfectly rational, he and his magic circle and it is not in their interest to use the nuclear weapon – adds gen. Cuzzelli -. Someone else may agree that Russia commits such immense nonsense, that's the point. " Ukraine continues to evoke the specter of nuclear power to get the West to intervene more concretely. “The alarm is raised by the Ukrainians and can be interpreted as an instrument of pressure on the West and keep the war within the conventional enclosure – concludes the general -. The Ukrainian interest is that NATO actively intervenes on its side against Russia but the West is well aware of the risks of such a move and is careful not to do so ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/quali-sono-i-veri-piani-di-putin-sullucraina-lanalisi-del-generale-cuzzelli/ on Wed, 20 Apr 2022 18:57:00 +0000.