What really happened in Tunisia
The Tunisia case analyzed by Gianfranco Polillo
Much of the Italian press, describing the Tunisian events , risks taking fireflies for lanterns. Or rather, using a more refined language, to remain a prisoner of her own Eurocentrism. That is, that attitude which leads her too often to use categories that are good for the reality of the most advanced countries, but which are not only wrong, but harmful, in many other cases. Just think of the disasters committed by those who wanted to export democratic rules, in some countries of the Middle East, on the tips of bayonets.
Europe and the United States, in the various statements of government officials, have expressed strong concerns about the democratic stability of that buffer state. Closed in the pincer between Algeria and Libya. Especially without a drop of oil to be extracted from its subsoil. Parliament was also rightly defended. Not to mention that in fact a position was taken in favor of Ennahda, the moderate Islamic group, winner of the last elections, which had expressed both the Head of Government, Hichem Mechichi, and of the Assembly, Rached Ghannouchi.
Too similar to the Egyptian story: it has been said. When the head of the Muslim Brotherhood, Muhammad Morsi, elected in the presidential elections of 2012, remained in office for only one year, he was later overthrown by the military coup of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. And, indeed, some similarities are evident. Starting from the location of the two parties that, both in Egypt and Tunisia, had won the elections. Of the first – the Muslim Brotherhood – it has already been said, of the second – Ennahda – it is enough to add that if not a rib of that same family we were not far away. And in any case both close relatives, in the complicated geopolitics of those lands, both of Erdogan's Turkey and of the Emir of Qatar, Al Thani. The latter, long isolated within the Arab camp (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Maldives) following its policy in favor of the most fundamentalist forces, such as Hamas, and their Iranian inspirers or themselves Muslim brothers in Egypt.
The coup in Egypt was propitiated by an unprecedented economic crisis. Above all due to the inadequacy of the economic policy followed by Morsi: more attentive to the obligations of "brotherhood", than to the needs of his own country. In a few months the foreign exchange reserves were dilapidated, foreign investments disappeared, the negotiations with the IMF for a loan of 5 billion dollars dragged on, without success, for a long year. And finally the coup de grace, due to the sudden tourism crisis. The loss of currency revenues equal to the revenues from the Suez Canal toll. Phenomena destined to deeply disturb public opinion, determined to take to the streets, as soon as the feeling prevailed that, on the legislative level, a squeeze towards the Shari'a was being prepared.
The Tunisian situation closely resembles what happened in Egypt in the now distant 2013. Again, Ennahda's primary interest was to accommodate its members. Obviously respecting, in the distribution of benefits, one's own internal hierarchies. In the latest IMF report, (article IV) the description of a country one step away from default. In 2020, GDP collapsed by 8.2 percent. The strongest loss since the day of independence. The unemployment rate jumped to 16.2 per cent, affecting mainly low-skilled workers, women and young people. Gasoline thrown on the fire of the protest. A deficit in the balance of payments, which fell to 6.8 per cent of GDP. But only because of the contraction in the demand for imports, mainly due to the lack of tourists. The only ones who are able to buy them.
The budget deficit is expected to be 11.5 per cent, due to the compression of revenues and a sharp increase in expenditure: largely due to the growth in hiring in the public, of which 40 per cent in healthcare. The overall expenditure for wages alone was equal to 17.6 per cent of GDP: “among the highest in the world”, as the IMF technicians observe. Minimally offset by a strong squeeze on investments and subsidies previously granted to reduce the cost of energy. Thanks to these measures, it is estimated that the public debt has reached 87 percent of GDP. Which would still be tolerable if foreign currency debt were not 94.7 percent of GDP.
Fortunately, the most recent negotiations with the IMF for the renewal of the loan ended happily, unlike what happened in Egypt. But the social fractures that those data highlight remain in all their scope. The strong increase in employees, especially in the health sector, especially the result of clientelist practices in the name of "brotherhood", has not led to any improvement in the least. On the contrary, the spread of Covid and the low number of vaccinated people is causing a real health catastrophe. With all due respect to all the "no vax". As of mid-February, the deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, amounted to just over 7,500 cases. The latest surveys, after only 5 months, speak of almost 19 thousand cases: two and a half times as much. This places Tunisia at the top of the international rankings, in terms of the number of deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants.
These data can help explain the reaction of the people to the attempted "coup", as that event was reported by much of the Italian press. Those demonstrations of substantial support for the decisions of President Kais Saied and in any case began before the situation worsened. Although it can always be argued that everything had been preordained by those who held the levers of power. As has been said about the Egyptian "coup" of 2013. As a "coup", if you think about it, it was the assault on the Winter Palace that marked, in Russia, the October revolution, back in 1917. The truth is that the boundaries between "coup" and "revolution", except in exceptional cases (the Putsch), are very blurred and often indeterminate. They are, all the more so, in such a complex reality, such as that of the Maghreb. Or the Arab world, of which Tunisia, however, is not a part.
Yes, it could be argued, relativism and revisionism are fine; however, the fact remains that in both cases Parliament, and with it democracy, have been raped. And this already can only lead to the strongest condemnation. We are fully aware of this. Democracy, according to Winston Churchill's famous aphorism, remains the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried so far. But this is a rule that applies above all to those countries which, as in Europe, have a per capita income of 29,000 euros per year. However, when the latter, as in the case of Tunisia, barely exceeds 3,300 dollars (it was more than 4,000 in 2013), the priorities may be different. And affect the future developments of a society that does not want to give up being a "nation".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-e-successo-davvero-in-tunisia/ on Wed, 28 Jul 2021 15:24:45 +0000.