What to expect from Biden’s trip to the Middle East?
Even before leaving, the trip of the US president, Joe Biden, to Israel and Saudi Arabia is considered a historic trip. Facts and expectations. Marco Orioles's article
Joe Biden is preparing to embark on a flight that will take him to the Middle East on his first visit to the region since he became president, with two stages of profound strategic importance for the United States scheduled: Israel and Saudi Arabia.
A historic visit and flight
His journey can already be defined as historic as Biden will be the first president to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia, a sign of profoundly changed times since his predecessor Donald Trump inspired the normalization process between the Jewish state and the Arab world that culminated in the signing of the now famous "Abrahamic Agreements".
Use mediators
Although the president's agenda is packed for each of the two countries, there is much discussion about his role as a mediator for a possible turning point in relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh.
The synthesis of expectations emerges from a report by the always well-informed Israeli daily Haaretz and significantly titled "What Biden's visit will create between Saudi Arabia and Israel – and what it will not create".
On the eve of his departure, the newspaper first notes, the US president spread an editorial through the Washington Post in which he remarked that his trip represented "a small symbol of the burgeoning relations" between two universes that until recently considered themselves enemies jurors.
His words would suggest the possibility of progress in diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the context of a relationship that has been forming and consolidating for several years now, albeit at an informal level.
A slow normalization
According to Haaretz 's sources, however, a sensational development similar to the steps taken by a country like the United Arab Emirates, the first signatory of the "Abrahamic Agreements", should be ruled out.
Not that the White House isn't working on it; indeed, since its inauguration, the Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to favor the normalization of relations between the cradle of Judaism and that of Islam.
The knots of the war in Yemen and the Khashoggi case
But according to Haaretz , the times are not yet ripe, also due to the resentment that the Saudis have towards a US government whose positions towards the Kingdom have been openly critical from the beginning, especially due to the prolongation of the war in Yemen and the burning case of Jamal Khashoggi, killed in 2018 in a raid by undercover Saudi agents and whose principal, according to US intelligence, is none other than the reigning prince and heir to the throne Mohammad bin Salman.
This is why, according to Haaretz , the Saudi side would expect at least a partial detente on the Washington-Riyadh axis, before considering a step fraught with consequences such as the normalization of relations with Israel.
In that sense, yesterday's Reuters scoop that the Saudis are putting pressure on the Biden administration to lift the embargo on the sale of offensive arms in Riyadh decided last year is significant.
Time not ripe for a military alliance
Another project destined for now to remain in the drawer due to technical difficulties and a certain Israeli skepticism is that of a military alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia and a significant piece of the Arab world in an anti-Iranian key. The time for such an ambitious operation is simply not ripe.
The agreement in progress on the return of Tiran and Sanafir to the Saudis
What Biden's visit could propitiate, at least according to a revelation made by Axios in May, is a three-party agreement that would involve Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt, and would involve the transfer of sovereignty from Cairo to Riyadh of two islands in the Sea Rosso, Tiran and Sanafir, not far from the Israeli port of Eilat.
Both the Parliament and the Supreme Court of Egypt, to which Saudi Arabia granted sovereignty over the islands in 1950, before Israel seized them during the Six Day War in 1967 and returned them to Cairo a few years later, have already given light. green to the agreement, which now requires some technical details before being implemented.
What US mediation is trying to make possible is that Saudi Arabia, once it regains possession of the islands, grants Israel the right to fly over its commercial jets bound for the East and China and India in particular.
This eventuality would represent a tangible step forward in terms of the use of Saudi airspace for flights departing from Israel currently limited to the Dubai-Tel Aviv and Manama-Tel Aviv connections.
The agreement would also open up the possibility for Muslim pilgrims departing from Israel to reach sacred places in Saudi territory using a shorter route.
The policy of small steps
If Biden actually succeeds in getting Saudi and Israeli representatives to shake hands by finalizing the agreement for the return of Tiran and Sanafir, he will objectively achieve glaring success in the policy of small steps that is gradually bringing Jerusalem and Riyadh closer.
It was Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid himself who revealed last month that rumors of a possible deal to expand Israel's access to Saudi airspace "are not without foundation." While in March soothing words came out of Bin Salman's mouth about the fact that "we do not see Israel as an enemy, but rather as a potential ally in the many interests that we can cultivate together".
There would therefore be all the conditions for Biden not to return empty-handed from his trip to the Middle East. It may not be able to proclaim a new Abrahamic agreement or bless the birth of the Arab and Israeli NATO but it will have brought home a concrete result that confirms the climate of growing harmony between two former rivals such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/cosa-aspettarsi-dal-viaggio-di-biden-in-medio-oriente/ on Tue, 12 Jul 2022 06:27:34 +0000.