What went wrong in Israel against Hamas?
Origin and goals of Hamas. How the attack on Israel came about. And the flaws in Israeli Defense and Intelligence. The in-depth analysis by Francesco D'Arrigo, director of the Italian Institute of Strategic Studies “Niccolò Machiavelli”
Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, which began on October 7 and is still ongoing, suggests a huge intelligence failure, as the Israel Defense Force (IDF) appeared blind to the infiltration of Hamas fighters. Hamas across the southern border and the firing of thousands of rockets.
According to the vast majority of experts and analysts it was an intelligence failure, Israel's 9/11.
The Hamas assault by air, land and sea has raised multiple questions as to why the Intelligence Agencies (apparently) did not foresee or even see it.
Israel has very high intelligence data collection and analysis capabilities, and is able to have a real-time picture of what is happening in Gaza, if the Israeli agencies knew that an attack was imminent, why didn't they share it with Washington, who (apparently) wasn't following the situation?
For those who know the Israeli secret services, considered among the most efficient and technologically advanced in the world, with unrivaled HUMINT, SIGINT and cyber interception capabilities covering the West Bank and Gaza, it is almost inconceivable that they were surprised by an attack plan that it required months of preparation and the involvement of hundreds of Hamas militiamen.
It is surprising that the Israeli secret services did not identify and discover the preparations for an incursion which resulted in a real invasion of Israeli territory by Hamas.
It is not even clear why US intelligence agencies did not see the attack coming, probably because they were focused on monitoring the conflict in Ukraine. Just as it does not seem credible that any alarm signal has arrived from friendly Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Over the years, we have never seen a terrorist attack like this, with the border of a state violated by several groups of armed terrorists who enter homes, savagely massacre, rape and kidnap hundreds of civilians, including many children.
Israel's access control system is so widespread that it can identify every single person who approaches the border from Gaza and is always intercepted, recognized and possibly neutralized long before they can do anything. What is taking place is an unprecedented event, a terrorist operation supported by State actors, whose contours and attributions will be revealed more clearly with time, and which cannot be summarized as an intelligence failure, but which at the moment cause many responsibility on Israeli politics and defense, on the West's inattention to the terrorist threat and on condescension with those states that support and finance terrorism.
Why an attack right now to provoke a new war?
The assault took place on a public holiday in Israel and the day after the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur or Ramadan Arab-Israeli war, when Israel was caught off guard by a military offensive coordinated by Egypt and Syria , not by terrorist militants as in the attack of October 7th.
The timing of Hamas' attack is certainly connected to various tactical and strategic factors and objectives, primarily the signs of an agreement for the normalization and development of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah immediately claimed responsibility for the attack and said it was a warning to any Muslim country seeking peace with Israel.
Hamas spokesman Ibrahim Hamad told Al Jazeera television that the attack on Israel was "absolutely a message" to Muslim countries seeking normalization with Israel. He urged them to absolve themselves of this “great shame”.
The 50th anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war certainly had an influence; the political divisions and large demonstrations in Israel which have weakened Prime Minister Netanyahu's government, especially in terms of security; the "inattention" of the West engaged in countering the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the resulting geopolitical context; the approach of the US presidential elections, which have already caused the fall of the speaker of the House with a Republican majority in Congress, causing (temporarily) the approval of further economic and military support necessary to help Ukraine defend itself from aggression Russian, and preventing the US parliament from being able to legislate until the election of a new Speaker.
But the most influential factor in the planning and execution of the attack launched by Hamas on 7 October against Israel is called Iran, which has always been committed to supporting and arming the Palestinian cause to achieve the liberation of the occupied territory. Iran's involvement in the "fight for the liberation of Palestine" was immediately claimed by General Yahya Rahim Safavi, advisor for military affairs to the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei. Safavi stressed that Iran will continue to support Palestinian fighters in their fight for the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.
What is Hamas?
Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has launched its biggest attack on Israel with a surprise offensive. But what exactly is Hamas and what are the objectives of this fundamentalist group?
Hamas is a Palestinian Islamic militant group with a political and an armed wing. He does not recognize the State of Israel and, according to his own declarations, wants to destroy the country. Germany, the European Union, the United States and some Arab states classify Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Hamas was founded in the late 1980s in opposition to former Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
The leader of Hamas is Ismail Haniyeh, and he has established his headquarters in Qatar.
Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by Canada, the European Union, Israel, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. New Zealand and Paraguay have classified only its military wing as a terrorist organization (?). It is not considered a terrorist organization by Brazil, China, Egypt, Iran, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Syria and Turkey. In December 2018, a resolution to condemn Hamas as a terrorist organization failed to pass the UN General Assembly, whose role in the current crises is practically marginal, if not downright counterproductive.
Hamas is made up of various military factions, including the Qassam Brigades, which have carried out numerous attacks and suicide bombings against Israel in recent years. The organization also includes a political party and humanitarian organizations.
The Second Intifada
Israel and the PLO began the Oslo peace process in 1993, when each side recognized the other. Hamas, however, has not recognized this historic agreement and continues to carry out terrorist attacks on Israeli territory.
During the Second Intifada (2000-2005), Palestinian militant groups – including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Brigades of the Fatah Movement – carried out numerous terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians.
The Israeli army has established itself in Palestinian cities that are under Palestinian self-government under the Oslo Accords, including Ramallah. According to United Nations data, between September 2000 and July 2007, 4,228 Palestinians, 1,024 Israelis and 63 foreign citizens were killed in clashes.
2007: Hamas takes power in Gaza
Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections. In 2007, Hamas took control of Gaza after heavy clashes with the Fatah movement, a nationalist and social democratic party that is part of the PLO. Since then due to the irreconcilable political differences in Palestine: Hamas controls the Gaza Strip, while the Palestinian Authority, dominated by the Fatah party, governs the partially autonomous territories of the West Bank.
Israel then declared Gaza a “hostile territory” and tightened its broad and ongoing closure, implemented in part by Egypt, which shares the southwestern border. Israel and, to a lesser extent, Egypt control land, sea and air access to the Palestinian enclave.
The Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. Much of the population lives in extreme poverty and relies on humanitarian aid. Hamas continued to attack Israel with thousands of rockets fired from Gaza, claiming it was "self-defense."
Until yesterday there had been four armed conflicts with the Israeli army: from 2008 to 2009, and in 2012, 2014 and 2021.
2008: First Gaza War
Israel's blockade policy, which has been met with repeated rocket attacks by Palestinian militant groups on Israeli civilians and localities near the Gaza Strip, has led to tensions that sparked the first Gaza war on December 27, 2008. The Israeli military offensive “Operation Cast Lead” ended on January 18, 2009.
On November 14, 2012, another war broke out between Hamas in Gaza and Israel, this time lasting eight days.
Just a year and a half later, the third Gaza war began on July 8, 2014, following continued rocket fire from Gaza into Israel. It ended with a temporary ceasefire on 26 August.
Then, on May 10, 2021, war broke out again between Israel and Gaza after Hamas fired rockets into Jerusalem. The conflict broke out after weeks of unrest, especially in East Jerusalem, due to the forced eviction of Palestinian homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood and violence at the Temple Mount and Al Aqsa Mosque.
The war ended on May 21, 2021 with a ceasefire, after more than 260 people were killed in the Gaza Strip and at least 10 in Israel, according to United Nations data.
The state of war
With Hamas's large-scale and unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which saw hundreds of civilians killed and taken hostage (including many with dual American citizenship and perhaps other nationalities), violence exploded again. In several Middle Eastern countries, thousands of people took to the streets to demonstrate in favor of Hamas. Openly or indirectly, several governments have supported and encouraged the actions of the Islamist movement, holding Israel responsible for the escalation. A demonstration in support of Hamas took place in Istanbul on Saturday evening. Turkish officials expressed formal neutrality, expressing “deep concern about the violence” but refraining from condemning the attack.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah demonstrations gathered thousands of participants across the country. Neighboring Syria has openly praised Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, supported by the United States and opposition leader Yair Lapid, who said he was willing to create a government of national unity to deal with the emergency, declared that Israel is "at war" and vowed to use the “full power” of the IDF to destroy Hamas capabilities and free the hostages, telling Palestinian civilians to “leave now” while implying that Israel is preparing to invade the Gaza Strip by land.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/israele-cause-aggressione-hamas/ on Mon, 09 Oct 2023 05:40:37 +0000.