What will be the future of US democracy. Martin Wolf’s analysis
What Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf has written about the United States
"The question of whether our democracy will last long is ancient and urgent, as old as our republic." Thus, in his speech to Congress on April 28, Joe Biden defined what is at stake in his presidency. He was also right in saying that autocrats are betting that US democracy cannot "overcome the lies, anger, hatred and fears that have separated us." But those autocrats might also be right. One of the main American parties has become unequivocally undemocratic. This is now a struggle between two old men over the fate of liberal democracy in the United States – writes Martin Wolf in the FT .
In a liberal democracy, fair elections determine who is in power. Attempts to subvert or overturn the vote are a betrayal. This is exactly what Donald Trump attempted to do both before and after last year's presidential election. He tried to turn the United States into an autocracy. This was hardly surprising: it had been obvious from the beginning of his political career that this was his goal.
He has failed. Decent and courageous people stood in the way. But this story has only just begun. Even without social media, Trump still holds the loyalty of his party's base and thus controls its leaders. Even the people whose lives he endangered with the invasion of the Capitol he promoted rush to kiss his hand in Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, deeply conservative cornerstones, such as Liz Cheney, the third highest-ranked Republican in the House of Representatives, are being ousted. His crime? Claiming Trump's Big Lie that the actual election result was a Big Lie is a big lie.
The fact that Trump is lying is not news. What's news is that, even stripped of public office, Trump sets the truth for his party. There is a word for a political organization where the first duty of the members is absolute loyalty to a leader who defines what is true and right: Führerprinzip ("leadership principle"). The Republican wholesale embrace of Trump's Big Lie is a perfect example of this.
This, alas, is far from everything. Trump's Big Lie is being armed through state legislation designed to subvert elections. Much attention is given to obstacles to voting. But the death threats also kicked honest officials out of the office.
Worse still, as the United States Center for Democracy notes: "In 2021, state legislatures across the country – through at least 148 bills filed in 36 states – are moving to find their way into the administration of elections, in an attempt to dislodge or disrupt the executive branch and / or local electoral officials who have traditionally managed our voting systems ”. Responsible people feel obligated to keep their oath of office. Less visible lawmakers may not.
Alas, this assault is not surprising. Eight of the 23 states that the Republicans totally control were members of the old Confederacy. These states shifted to Republicans after the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964. A large part of this story is therefore the South's attempt to protect itself, once again, from the votes of African Americans.
So what we're seeing is a blend of fanaticism and careerism. Both groups believe it is okay to subvert the elections if doing so puts the "right" people in power. After all, these Democrats are just anti-Americans. The aim of keeping them out of power justifies any means.
Biden understood this. As he told Congress, "If we truly want to restore America's soul, we must protect the sacred right to vote." But Democrats also need to change contemporary US electoral coalitions in their favor. To do this, they have to move a significant number of uneducated whites into their field. In short, Biden must turn a decent (by Trump standards) approval rating into an overwhelming one.
The only hope of doing this, Biden knows, is to show that the government can act effectively, in the interest of all. It did so through the spectacular vaccine launch. It is trying to do this through its huge immediate and long-term spending programs. Huge, in fact, they are. Olivier Blanchard, former IMF chief economist, told the FT's Global Boardroom last week that discretionary and automatic fiscal support amounted to 12.6% of US gross domestic product last year and will be 12.8%. this year. According to his estimates, this is three times larger than the US output gap – the deficit in actual versus potential production.
This spending seems certain to generate a very strong short-term boom. Hopefully, production will expand to meet demand, inflation will rise modestly, and the economy will shift to a new and more dynamic path. But if, as Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, told FT's Economists Exchange, the result is instead a big jump in inflation and late monetary tightening, a financial crisis and deep recession could occur before 2024. , bringing Trump, or worse, to power.
Biden is playing for huge stakes – and he knows it. It is not just about ensuring a strong post-Covid economic recovery for the United States. It is not just about restoring the United States' position in the world as an ally and as an actor on crucial issues, such as climate. It's not just about proving that the US government can do important things. It is now a question of protecting the core of democracy – the peaceful acceptance of election results.
If that fails in the United States, would-be autocrats everywhere would have carte blanche to do whatever they want. The danger is great, as Republicans are no longer a normal Democratic party. They are increasingly an undemocratic cult with a would-be despot as a leader.
I desperately hopeBiden is successful. But he made a huge bet on the success of his program. It could be the most consequential gamble any Democratic leader has ever made in my life. The future of democracy is at stake.
(Extract from the Epr review)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/democrazia-stati-uniti-martin-wolf/ on Sun, 16 May 2021 06:00:21 +0000.