What will happen in Libya, Iran and Venezuela with the Russia-Ukraine war
The effects of Russia's war on Ukraine in Libya, Iran and Venezuela. The point of Gianmarco Volpe, the global desk chief of Agenzia Nova
There are three side dossiers to the Russia-Ukraine war to pay close attention to: Libya, Iran and Venezuela.
• Russia has the capacity to destabilize Europe through Libya , it is estimated that it has over 7,000 mercenaries from the private Wagner group in the country and the situation today is even more messed up than it generally is. In fact, there is a return to a double government, one in Tripoli led by Abdul Hamid Dabaiba and one in Tobruk led by Fathi Bashagha. It is a very complicated scenario, in which all the regional powers get their hands. It goes without saying which European country is most exposed to the repercussions of the Libyan crisis.
• A new agreement on Iranian nuclear power could arrive from Vienna in the next few days. The United States and its European partners need to put gas from the Islamic Republic (currently under sanctions) back on the market in order to deal with a possible interruption of Russian supplies and thus have more strength in the negotiations on Ukraine. But the rush risks producing a bearish deal, and this would provoke an inevitable reaction from Israel and the Gulf. The petromonarchies have already given signs of intolerance towards the United States (see the Emirati vote against Russia in the UN Security Council), with which relations have been cold since Biden's inauguration. The new agreement with Tehran would now push the Gulf directly towards Beijing.
• The same goes for Venezuelan hydrocarbons. They are needed. Even, perhaps, at the cost of rehabilitating Nicolas Maduro. So much Juan Guaidò turned out to be a bluff, the Venezuelan opposition is split and someone in Caracas will have to talk. Among its most unpredictable effects, the Russian invasion of Ukraine thus risks sweeping away years of crisis and threats on the other side of the world.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-ucraina-effetti-libia-iran-venezuela/ on Tue, 08 Mar 2022 06:25:53 +0000.