What will happen to the Italian economy: facts, numbers and comparisons
Without Italy, as the data show, the Eurozone would do better: greater growth in both real and nominal terms. So be careful not to advertise Italexit. Abroad they could take us at our word. Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
While government officials scramble to describe their behavior as if we lived in the best of all possible worlds, the real world rebels. And it sends out not so reassuring signals that politics cannot or do not want to see. "Real household income continued to decline in the second quarter of 2020 in Germany (–1.2%), France (–2.3%), the United Kingdom (–3.4%) and Italy (–7.2% ), after more moderate drops (of -1% or less) in the previous quarter: this is what the OECD says, according to which Italy's performance is the worst of the G7, ” says the OECD. Although the government support measures have nonetheless "continued to protect household incomes from the economic impact of Covid-19 in the second quarter of 2020". God forbid: it would be worth commenting. The hints of revolt that were found in the various Italian squares acted as a detonator. But how long will the prince's donation last?
“In September, industrial production in the euro area turned negative: –0.4% compared to August (+ 0.6%). Unchanged in the EU (+ 0.9% in August). Compared to September 2019 –6.8% and –5.8% respectively ”: Eurostat indicates. “In Italy the strongest decline in the EU: –5.6% compared to August, –5.1% compared to a year earlier. In France + 1.5% and –6.1%; in Germany + 1.7% and –8.7%; in Spain + 0.6% and –3% ". To further demonstrate how profound a crisis can be, which is only the poisonous tail of a longer agony. If we look back, the Italian disaster is visible to the naked eye, in any confrontation of an international nature. The diagnosis is univocal: a country that does not find in itself the strength to react. A played boxer who wanders around the ring without having the desire to fight anymore. Or rather, that desire is still there, but it is only in the gloves of a handful of companies, which do the impossible. Which unfortunately alone is not enough.
The 5 stars understood the Italian situation before others. Praising the "happy degrowth", they took note of reality and raised the white flag. If growing up is difficult, due to the commitment it requires, it is better to give it up from the beginning and focus on a sort of "integral socialization". From the citizen's salary to the emergency salary, passing through the thousands of bonuses granted – necessary, but in any case "empty to lose" – and an expansion of public intervention whose borders are increasingly shrouded in an impenetrable fog. According to the forecasts of the European Commission, the Italian public debt will grow by 24.4 percent (2022 to 2019). Only Spain will do worse than us, with a growth of 28.4. While Greece, until a few months ago the great patient, will record a much smaller increase (14.3%).
The left-most government in Italian history is therefore demonstrating great consistency with its theoretical postulates. There is no more balance. In the past years, the drives of a hairy providentialism, always present in one's DNA, were mitigated by the counterweights of one's allies. Comrades on the road, as they used to say. But also technocrats: capable of exercising a decisive influence on party leadership. Sometimes prestigious university professors. At other times, great state boyars, as Eugenio Scalfari used to define them, at other times, exponents of the great nursery of Catholic associations or men of institutions. If you really want an identikit, just think of the "independent left" of the 70s and 80s; to managers of state holdings . The last, in chronological order: Romano Prodi. To intellectuals like Beniamino Andreatta or to the great commis d'état like Carlo Azeglio Ciampi. A contamination which modern politics has decided to put an end to. Not even it was a derivation of Covid-19.
It can last? This is the question, continually removed in the daily grind. To survive, instead of kicking the bucket, as one of the most cynical Italian politicians used to repeat. That, however, he had some qualities, as a great navigator. The question is annoying, but the answer is necessary. No: it can't last. It cannot be because Italy has reached its limit. And when the pandemic is over, all the knots will come to a head. In a cataclysm whose creaking is easy to feel right now. Since the birth of the euro, Italy has grown by 2.01 per cent in real terms as a whole, according to Eurostat certification. Given that twenty years have passed since then, one can legitimately speak of a flat encephalogram. Diagnosis that is confirmed by two data: the Eurozone in the same period grew by 23.4 percent. But excluding the Italian "ballast", the growth of the rest of the other partners was on average 28.4 per cent.
We were only saved by a little inflation. In nominal terms, the growth of the "twenty years" was 37.2 per cent, against 62.3 per cent in the Eurozone and 67.6 per cent of our partners excluding Italy. But even this small refreshment was soon canceled by the deepest depression, which followed the crisis of 2008. In the first years of the euro, Italian inflation averaged 3.6 per cent; after that date even less than unity. Historians have long debated the economic policy of the fascist regime. See, for example, the beautiful volume: “The Italian Economy in the Fascist Period” with the premise of Pierluigi Ciocca and many contributions from the economists of the Bank of Italy. It is a pity not to find the same commitment today.
Yet the stakes are even higher. If Italy had had a growth rate equal to the Eurozone average, its GDP would now be equal to 2,187 billion, instead of 1,789. A much greater well-being able to better support the structure of a welfare, otherwise destined to collapse, not being able to count on the necessary support. And its debt to GDP ratio, which in 2019 recorded a value of 134.7 percent, would have been reduced to a more humane 110.2 percent. Miracles of a little push up: once ideological nonsense is overcome on the one hand and redistributive opportunism on the other. Finally, there is a small corollary. Without Italy, as the data show, the Eurozone would do better: greater growth in both real and nominal terms. So be careful not to advertise Italexit. Abroad they could take us at our word.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/che-cosa-succedera-alleconomia-italiana-fatti-numeri-e-confronti/ on Fri, 13 Nov 2020 05:59:50 +0000.