What will NATO do to defeat Russia in Ukraine
All the objectives of the Pentagon meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. Stefano Silverstri's analysis for Affarinternazionali
In the great Ramstein air base, in Germany, where the giant American freighters landing one of the largest flows of American troops and armaments destined for NATO in Europe, the Pentagon leaders have convened a meeting of all the allies committed to militarily help Ukraine: not only the NATO countries and their Baltic allies, but also some Pacific powers (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand), the Middle East (Israel, Jordan, Qatar) and Africa (Kenya , Liberia, Morocco, Tunisia).
Not all of them have the same capacities, nor exactly the same political positions, but ultimately this group of countries seems to share the goal of increasing Ukrainian responsiveness. The goal of the exercise would be to "defeat Moscow", but this slogan could mean very different things.
What does "defeat Moscow" mean
For example, Washington is unlikely to aim for a full defeat, which would require not only the liberation of all Ukrainian lands (including Crimea), but also the destruction of the military capabilities present on Russian territory. In reality, even the simple objective of "liberating" all the Ukrainian lands occupied up to now seems very ambitious, perhaps too much, unless we imagine a real collapse of Russia (which could open the prospect of a dangerous escalation).
In practice, "defeating Moscow" could mean paralyzing the Russian offensive, preventing it from achieving more significant results, such as the isolation of Ukraine from the sea (by conquering Odessa, after Mariupol) or the consolidation of a territorial strip starting from northern border to reach Crimea, including both the territories occupied by pro-Russian separatists, and another substantial part of the country. In other words, it would be a question of preventing Vladimir Putin from achieving a result which, despite being much lower than his initial expectations (when he thought he could "satellite" in a short time the whole of Ukraine) could allow him to sing victory and save face.
This objective could be achieved by the Ukrainian resistance, also thanks to Western aid, at a very high price in terms of massive destruction of logistics and production infrastructures, and of many other civilian victims. The defeat of Moscow is paid for by the flesh and blood of the Ukrainian people, the Western allies put money and political support into it. It is a very difficult situation to manage, also because, precisely because they pay the highest price, the decisions on the progress of the conflict and its objectives are made primarily in Kyiv and not in Brussels or Washington.
The danger of an 'existential' conflict
In this situation it is inevitable that the positions will become rigid and tend to want to achieve the maximum possible result, because for the Ukrainians any downward compromise would appear as a betrayal towards the many victims of this war, while for the Russians it would have the flavor of ' humiliation and abandonment, once and for all, of Putin's dream of rebuilding a great Russian hegemonic sphere in Europe.
The risk is therefore that any peace negotiation or even just an armistice will fail in the face of a confrontation that could become existential (certainly for Ukraine, but perhaps also for Putin's regime). At this point, however, the possibility of an endless war spreading beyond its current borders could require urgent and possibly dangerous (or politically unacceptable) decisions.
Well then the meeting of Ramstein, who reminds Russia with harshness and facts that it is no longer the mistress of Central Eastern Europe, free to fill Budapest, Prague or Kyiv with tanks, to change the orientations of those governments. But having done this, it will also be necessary to prepare de-escalation scenarios, to be discussed and agreed with the Ukrainians, but which will allow them to put their weapons to rest.
It will certainly not be an easy task, but it is essential that every war, even this one, has a concrete and credible outcome.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ramstein-guerra-ucraina/ on Sat, 30 Apr 2022 06:51:27 +0000.