What will the fibrillation between the ruling parties produce?
Will the tensions in the government end up involving Mario Draghi too? Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
The approaching of the first electoral deadlines – less than 15 days to go – creates fibrillation among the main Italian political forces. The uncertainty of the possible outcome feeds the fears of the leaders, who are aware of the risks, including personal ones, which are connected to the popular response. Already on other occasions, local-style elections have led to small and large overturns, reflecting, at times, on the government itself. The presence of Mario Draghi, at Palazzo Chigi, should avoid this hypothesis, even if it is not known. Depending on the results there may be some accelerations – seize the moment! – especially if a picture very different from the current parliamentary balance emerges from the competition. Why wait for the natural deadlines: the iron must be wrought while it is hot.
Everything is OK? Simple political logic? Looking at Italian events with detachment, it would not seem like it. In other European countries, just to make a comparison, all this does not happen. There may be – it is true – phenomena of electoral compulsion, as happened in Spain in 2019, when the voters were again called to the polls after only months. But it was still a matter of general political elections and certainly not of choosing the mayor, or rather the alcalde, of some small town. And then this new Italian anomaly must, in some way, be explained by bringing up factors that are more of a cultural than political nature. After the years in which the need for a "new beginning" was celebrated, in any case, we have returned, in some way, to the fundamentals. The obsessive consultation of polls, as a tool on which to base one's programmatic allure, is gradually giving way to the solidity of the most ancient traditions.
On the one hand, the Democratic Party, whose roots are rooted in the oldest communist, socialist, reformist, or in any case solidarist culture; on the other Brothers of Italy: daughter of the most ancient traditions of the Italian right. From that of Massimo D'Azeglio, Camillo Benso of Cavour, Quintino Sella to that of Benito Mussolini, obviously passing through Giovanni Gentile and Giuseppe Bottai. In the midst of a galaxy with uncertain boundaries, if we exclude Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda (irreverent sons of the same Pd), in the perennial search for a representation that tickles the more corporate interests of a restless base, which would like to erase the troubles with a stroke of the pen deriving from an external historical evolution with respect to one's most immediate interests.
The first Covid, but even more the Russian invasion of Ukraine have created more than a furrow, a real fault between these two worlds, after having skimmed the sentiment of the individual political groups. The result was a greater possibility of agreement between those parties that were once at the extreme of the Italian political spectrum, and a growing distance from the others. That indistinct magma of which it was said previously: made up of ambiguity, winks, when not real joint interests with those powers determined to play a different role in the future geopolitical assets of the world. Namely Russia on the one hand and China on the other.
Just think of the Russian mission in Italy during Covid. That wandering of health workers, but more than anything else of military, around Italy, the white, blue and red flags of the Federation unfolded in the wind. The free access granted to them in many sensitive places in the Italian healthcare sector: where fundamental research on the Covid genome was being completed. Or to the request for aid addressed to Cuba, a choice developed in the context of very personal relationships between the staff of the President of the Yellow-green Government Council. Not to mention, finally, the memorandum on the silk road signed, with great fanfare, at Palazzo Chigi between Giuseppe Conte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. A few months later – from March 2019 – what remains of that diplomatic effort? Nothing but the ambiguous invocation against the supply of arms to Ukraine, which would inevitably lead to the capitulation of that people in the face of the overwhelming Russian invasion forces.
It will be said that upstream of those choices was intolerance towards a European Union sick with bureaucracy, dominated by an axis – the Franco-German one – destined to crush the sovereignty of other states. Which was, at least in part, true. If it had not been noted, at the same time, the absolute inability of the Italian elites to oppose choices deemed harmful to the national interest. This would have required an assiduous and qualified presence of the various Italian delegations in that of Brussels. Please ask some Italian Sherpa and you will get more than embarrassing answers on amateurism, to say the least, of many impromptu visits, under the banner of "hit and run". Those shortcomings, but this had not been the case for the ECB headed by Mario Draghi, had contributed to creating a growing gap between Italian public opinion and the rest of the continent. And then, rather than going to the root of that bewilderment, it was better to load the dose, addressing the Russians and Cubans.
Putin's choices and that of Europe itself, with the NGUE of 1,800 billion euros, have put things right. Showed which side was the reason. To the point that the same group of Visegard countries (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic), highly critical of the EU and in some way a point of attraction for our alleged innovators, melted like snow in the sun. By re-emerging all the basic discrimination that, as we said at the beginning, characterize the history of our country. And which are now destined to affect, in a way that is difficult to predict, even the next electoral results.
These are the elements that are shaking the Italian political landscape. Will they end up involving Mario Draghi too? The President doesn't seem to want to give up. This is demonstrated by the speed with which, in the past few days, in the face of yet another assault by Giuseppe Conte and the melina of Matteo Salvini, he convened the Council of Ministers and imposed the government agenda. However, some commentators, shielding themselves from polls that would show a slight décalage, have raised their tone. The "Government of the best" is showing the rope. The announced revolution is a soap bubble. Reforms are at stake. It may be true, but let's try to imagine what Italy would be today if Giuseppe Conte was still in government. It would perhaps have an audience with Vladimir Putin, but Italy's credit in Europe and in the West would be zero. And it is difficult to predict that after the “citizenship salary” or the pension messes, the Italian economy would be more rosy and perky. So, dear censors, a little patience, especially caution in cutting out judgments.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-produrranno-le-fibrillazioni-fra-i-partiti-al-governo/ on Fri, 27 May 2022 13:32:54 +0000.