What’s going on in the Black Sea?
Until when will military transit through the Turkish Straits be prohibited for other countries (especially the United States) and for NATO? Sooner or later Turkey will have to make choices, restoring the ordinary regime of the Montreux Convention of 1936. The article by Fabio Caffio for International Affairs
The Black Sea, closed to any military vessel, with merchant traffic reduced to a minimum, is in fact a rear line of the land conflict, controlled by Russia and neutral Turkey. Moscow has reduced naval activities after the losses suffered by Kyiv; it could soon take them back with the few units available as it could no longer receive reinforcements from commands outside the area.
Until when will military transit through the Turkish Straits be prohibited for other countries (especially the United States) and for NATO? Sooner or later Turkey will have to make choices, restoring the ordinary regime of the 1936 Montreux Convention . In view of a possible ceasefire, Russia will once again have to deal with NATO, just as it is now happening in the Mediterranean where it has concentrated a large nucleus of its conventional forces.
The Turkish position one year after the blockade
When the news circulated a year ago that Ankara had "warned all littoral and non-littoral countries not to cross the Straits with warships", it became clear that Turkey intended to limit the maritime dimension of the conflict to preserve the stability of the Black and secure their own interests.
Russia was asked not to allow ships whose passage was already authorized to transit and a similar message was sent to the international community. The Russian Navy brought back – as foreseen from Montreux – the Units that had previously been located within the basin, while no US or NATO ship ever transited into the Straits.
In this way, Turkey assumed an ambivalent position in applying two different provisions of the Convention. On the one hand, article 19.1 according to which "in time of war", since it is not belligerent, military ships of any flag enjoy complete freedom of transit, unless they belong to belligerent foreign powers (such as Russia and Ukraine ); on the other, article 21.1 which gives it the discretionary power not to allow any military unit to enter the Black Sea, if "it considers itself threatened by an imminent danger of war".
If this is the case, we can say that it was Turkey itself that benefited from the closure of the Black Sea in the first instance, which avoided an expansion of the naval conflict in front of its coasts, in addition to Ukraine, which requested it. With the closure of the Black Sea, Turkey has managed to consolidate its role as guarantor of the stability of the basin. The “ grain pact ” between Russia and Ukraine has also worked very well thanks to its active involvement alongside the United Nations. Now, when it expires, it could be extended if some Russian requests to ease sanctions on its agriculture are accepted.
The Russian Navy in trouble
Russia has unhesitatingly joined the naval restrictions, true to the axiom that for its own security, the Straits must be under Turkey's control. The strategic advantage did not work tactically.
After being engaged in coastal bombardments, unsuccessful amphibious actions and naval blockades, few Russian units have retained offensive capabilities (even in the absence of a real Ukrainian naval threat) demonstrating their reduced efficiency. They, which include three conventional submarines, have been made operational again these days, to launch cruise missiles against Ukrainian territory. Instead, the plans for a possible landing in Odessa or for the reconquest of the Isle of Serpents have been shelved, while the will to defend the waters of the Crimea, the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait is firm.
Huge Russian losses – due to missiles, mines or insidious Ukrainian actions – with the sinking of the cruiser "Moskva" and landing units, with damage to the frigate "Admiral Makarov" and ships moored in Berdyansk in the Sea of Azov . The use of aerial and surface drones has, among other things, allowed Kyiv to attack the Russian base of Novorossiysk which hosts the Fleet transferred from Sevastopol.
Born, Russia, Black Sea
As mentioned, Ankara has however applied the Montreux Convention at its discretion, assuming that the presence of ships from countries outside the Black Sea could compromise its safety. But to do this it had to separate its national position from that of a NATO member.
Now the Alliance is pressing for its Units to operate again in the Black Sea once the situation that led to the closure of the Straits ceases. The NATO countries are currently transporting military aid to Ukraine, outside the Straits, in the Greek port of Alexandroupoli in Thrace, from where they reach their destination via Bulgaria, Romania or Poland.
With a hypothetical ceasefire, the Black Sea scene will necessarily have to change. The United States, which has never adhered to the Montreux Convention faithful to their principles of freedom of navigation, want it. And NATO is asking for it, which has always played a deterrent role in the Black Sea and which now would also like to implement countermeasures for demining .
The countries of the Alliance are engaged in military support to Kyiv but have not yet done anything to reconstitute its Navy completely destroyed by Moscow as it has not been possible to pass through the Straits any units to be transferred to it.
Navigation and Montreux Convention
As many as thirteen Russian units are currently present in the Mediterranean Sea (as highlighted by the Chief of Staff of the Italian Navy in the Defense Commission) where they follow the NATO fleets and exercise their rights of harmless passage in territorial waters and free navigation in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of Western countries, including Italy, also making use of government ships with intelligence functions and the support of Syrian bases.
When access to the Black Sea is restored in compliance with Montreux, the situation will automatically rebalance itself: no one will be able to prevent NATO units from making use – on the basis of the principles of the law of the sea – of similar rights of passage in the waters under Russian jurisdiction or control . The tape of history will then roll back and Moscow will once again have to confront the Western fleets in its home seas as has already happened on other occasions .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-succede-nel-mar-nero/ on Sun, 05 Mar 2023 06:54:08 +0000.