When can you get vaccinated? Here's the answers. The post by Enrico Bucci, Ph.D. in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, adjunct professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, author of the book "Bad Scientists"
"The post by Enrico Bucci, Ph.D. in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, adjunct professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, author of the book" Bad Scientists ", taken from his Facebook profile ".
When will I be able to get vaccinated? This question is often asked me by many friends and readers of this page.
Here I will try to give a very short answer, for what is known today.
Let's start with supplies: when and how many doses of each vaccine will arrive in Italy? According to the latest available estimate, shared in the state-regions conference a few days ago, the reservations agreed for Italy with the European Union should follow the temporal trend illustrated in the first table (table 1).
Note how, due to the known issues we have discussed, the Sanofi vaccine is not expected to arrive before 2022.
For the first supply, the one already insured in January by Pfizer, the numbers in each region are those shown in the second table.
Given these supplies, and considering that after the first tranche of Pfizer vaccines the timing for the rest of the supplies also depends on the regulatory agencies, the priority of access to the doses gradually available is illustrated in the figure attached to this post (labeled as figure 1) .
The percentages indicated in the curve in the figure as "population coverage" can be interpreted as "doses consumed"; considering the availability calendar roughly shown in table 1, we can deduce that phase T1 should be completed by the first quarter of 2021, as well as phase T2; phase T3 could be completed by the first half of 2021, and T4 by the end of the year.
This, however, is a projection that takes into account only the vaccine doses available, and not the organizational effort and operators required; so it should be taken as a lower limit – it can't be done faster than that – and not as a realistic forecast.
For that, we wait to see the real times of approval of the different vaccines and the real forces in place to proceed with the vaccination.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/vaccinazione-dubbi-risposte/ on Sun, 20 Dec 2020 08:36:05 +0000.
