Who will decarbonise the most?
America and China will not be able to reach decarbonization standards in good time and have a joint interest in joining the game of global eco-standards so that they do not become a competitive and moral disadvantage. Pelanda's comment
On the occasion of Earth Day, three relevant trends for the geo-economy should be pointed out. The Biden Administration's activism to give the United States world leadership in eco-standards and environmental protection technologies. The recent cooperation between the US and China on environmental matters. The US inclusion of preparedness against destructive climate change via eco-adaptation and not just via decarbonisation.
The writer has obtained the following preliminary sensations. The US analysis notes that there will still be a climate impact in the future because decarbonisation will not be enough to stop it. Also because America and China will not be able to reach decarbonization standards in good time and have a joint interest in joining the game of global eco-standards so that they do not become a competitive and moral disadvantage.
Furthermore, America perceives that it has a certain advantage over China due to its greater difficulty (despite investments in alternative energy) to replace dependence on coal, even though America itself has enormous problems in replacing the oil cycle.
It is precisely these problems of America and China that impact on the credibility of the European approach: decarbonisation only by region by 2030-40 will not be able to cushion global warming for the part caused by greenhouse gases.
Indeed, it is unlikely that China and America, as well as developing nations, will be able to decarbonise significantly before 2060-70. Therefore there will be an impact on the level of rising seas and extreme atmospheric phenomena.
Consequently, in the scenario of mix between new decarbonisation and eco-adaptation technologies, the latter will be increasingly relevant and an instrument of power.
When? In recent webinars with analysts, the writer noted the forecast of slow changes. But he pointed out that a series of even small events is enough to amplify and make the perception of danger looming.
For example, the risk that the rising of the seas is actualized for about 70% of the world population living in coastal areas and river basins in the form of land inaccessibility is estimated towards the end of the century.
But a first visible sign would be enough to change the values based on the viability of the territories in great advance, causing an economic and financial mega-turbulence. Therefore, in order to defend economic confidence, emphasis must be placed immediately on preventive eco-adaptation as a supplement to insufficient decarbonisation.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/chi-decarbonizzera-di-piu/ on Sun, 25 Apr 2021 05:44:09 +0000.