Who wins and who draws with the Brexit agreement. Speak Pelanda
The EU-UK agreement on Brexit analyzed by Carlo Pelanda, essayist and professor of economics and economic geopolitics
The European Union greets 2020 with a historic agreement, the one that sanctioned the peaceful divorce between the Union and Great Britain.
An agreement that does not dissatisfy the parties, that avoids duties and allows goods to continue to circulate without taxes.
Start Magazine spoke about Brexit, future scenarios and the position of Italy with Carlo Pelanda , analyst, essayist and professor of economics and economic geopolitics at the Marconi University .
Who wins and who loses since Britain left the European Union?
I would say that nobody loses because in the end common sense meant that an agreement was reached, a compromise that was not only useful but necessary for all parties involved. The very incisive action of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen allowed the signing of an agreement for Brexit. Without their intervention, which probably displeased France, there would have been a no-deal Brexit with the EU and it would have been detrimental to everyone. Let's say that I would have bet on the stipulation of an agreement because Great Britain could not do without it.
What are the reasons why the UK couldn't help but find an agreement with the EU?
The United Kingdom was risking big first and foremost towards the maintenance of its territorial integrity. The Scots were ready, as soon as there was no deal, and they would have started with the referendum, and this time the result could have been favorable to the independence of Scotland . Then, again from the British point of view, the position of Northern Ireland would not have been manageable if it had put borders with the Republic of Ireland. This could have set the stage for a new conflict, which London cannot afford. Ultimately Wales also began to come under pressure from Scotland.
Did the world of business and finance also play a role?
The business community has pressed a lot on Premier Boris Johnson who has held a fairly hard negotiating line and then, the work of very good technicians, both European and British, who have done a painstaking job, has allowed us to reach a compromise whose the gist is that after Brexit we have Brex-In.
What is Brex-In?
I say Brex-In because the United Kingdom, while leaving the European Union, fully re-entered the European market, also accepting a series of rules.
Germany took the initiative because it could not risk giving up tens of billions of exports. Germany has also put pressure on the European Commission by showing impressive imperial capacity , has cornered the French. France did not protest because they would have paid a price perhaps greater than all if there had been a hard Brexit without a deal.
Lu “La Verità” you wrote that the agreement is good news for the Italian defense sector. Because?
Our Leonardo, with its subsidiaries, is closely linked with the British defense industry. France and Germany intend to weaken, to destroy the Italian military and technological industrial potential in order to absorb it. Without a regulation of industrial relations, in a condition of hard Brexit, there would have been a thousand excuses to make relations between Italy and the United Kingdom less fluid which, on the other hand, are working very well together, are preparing very important projects such as the third-party fighter Tempest generation which competes with the most advanced Franco-German fighter. France wants to take the lead in the technology and military industries and use European funds for its national projects. Italy is a great competitor, Germany less so. France was already ready to use a hard Brexit to force Leonardo to be bought by the French.
Is the defense sector the only one in which Italy gains from a Brexit with a deal?
No, Italy also earns a lot from food exports. The danger has been avoided, the risk of customs has been avoided. Then, that Italian goods can be competitive in the British domestic market is to be seen because the United Kingdom is making deals, has made more than twenty, with the whole world and we still don't know what can happen. In terms of form, for the moment, duties have been avoided and therefore a frightening damage to the Italian agri-food sector. I'm just telling you that the largest consumption of prosecco in the world is in London.
Much will depend on Euro-American relations. We will be able to understand something not before next summer , then we will understand if there will be a Euro-American free trade treaty. Or if there will remain a bit of a separation between the European Union and the United States because Biden has the priority to put the United States in order and understand in which direction relations with China will go. So there will be no quick actions. The political climate that favors or disadvantages exports to a country depends on all these movements.
The British and liberal media are not very concerned about London's dreaded European financial capital. Is this a legitimate concern?
London will remain a world financial capital. Because there is a concentration of skills that there isn't anywhere else, not even in New York. Then whether British-born financial services can still do operations in the European Union is yet to be seen. France will get in the way because it wants to take over, there will be some economic warfare. Germany has not yet thought about it. The Brexit agreement came in extremis, no one has yet thought about the future. The biggest game is financial services, if they are blocked the UK will declare war on the European Union or start shocking the eurozone debt. It will be a fun match.
If not European competitors, what worries British investors about the European market?
American finance in the first place, then the European concern derives from the fact that it will be necessary to have a passport to carry out financial transactions from London on the whole continent. If it gets worse, and there are too strict rules in Europe, they will vary their market , preferring other markets such as South America or China. In the end I think common sense will win. Not allowing UK financial services to operate in the eurozone means taking capital out of the eurozone. The free movement of capital will continue.
Could the exit of Great Britain be a driving force for the speed of EU action or is there a risk of the domino effect?
The domino effect is an exaggerated concern. Nobody leaves the Eurozone because in case of exit the price is so high that you risk death. The EU is not a sufficiently structured entity to pose serious problems that would cause an exit. Apart from the eurozone countries, the others use the European Union instrumentally but are careful not to enter the eurozone and submit to all constraints. Eastern European nations (Poland, Hungary, Romania) are in the EU because they have to be but they don't feel very European. Slovenia and Croatia have an interest in joining because they see improvements if they adopt the euro.
Are there not areas of Europe to which particular attention should be paid?
The Baltics are very interesting. The UK has a policy of great focus on the Baltics because they are part of the English living space, which is why the UK has a very tough stance towards Russia. The Baltic countries are the only ones that could go out, but they have no intention of doing so.
Can the European Union without Great Britain run faster?
Europe is a fairly structured reality but not a Union. It is an instrument of multiplying national power. Each country goes its own way, except Italy which is still unable to gain autonomy.
What do you think of the Italian position on Brexit?
The government has flanked France, not understanding its own national interest. For me it is a bit humiliating to hear my diplomatic colleagues speak of Italy as a nation that does not have a state and that does not have the ability to define its own national interests. Italy should have been interested in unhinging the European balance, in strengthening the link with the USA. In reality it has been completely canceled. We are an occupied , conditioned state that does not move, blackmailed by debt. It doesn't even try to make a foreign policy. The current government does not define the a priori national interest but follows France because evidently France has managed to place people who are very loyal to French interests within the Italian government. To such an extent that poor Mattarella had to put a piece of it that he intensified exchanges with his German counterpart. President Mattarella is very pro-European, he defends Italy from the French occupation trying to give signals about good relations with Germany. The only exception I feel I can make concerns the defense minister who has held firm to the axis of collaboration with NATO and the USA. But this is not enough to give Italy a profile of negotiating capacity.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/chi-vince-e-chi-pareggia-con-laccordo-sulla-brexit-parla-pelanda/ on Thu, 31 Dec 2020 09:11:36 +0000.