Why Biden’s auto emissions regulation doesn’t mandate electric cars
The 2032 auto emissions regulation issued by the Biden administration will likely favor electric models, but does not ban alternatives or even internal combustion engines. Here because
Joe Biden's administration issued a 2032 auto emissions regulation on Wednesday that will likely have the effect of encouraging the spread of electric models: the majority of new cars and new light trucks (such as the popular pickups) sold in the United States by that date, that is, they will be electric or hybrid.
WHAT THE LIMITS REALLY MEAN
According to projections from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA, an American government agency), the new limits on tailpipe emissions will mean that by 2032, 56 percent of cars registered in the country will be electric, and that 13 percent will be plug-in hybrids; the share of cars with internal combustion engines will be 29 percent.
In 2023, 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold in the United States, a record, although battery-powered vehicles represent only 7.6 percent of total car sales.
In detail, the regulation sets a cap on exhaust CO2 emissions of 85 grams per mile in 2023, compared to 170 grams per mile for vehicles registered in 2027 (the year from which the measure will apply).
US EMISSIONS TARGETS
Transportation is the leading sector for CO2 emissions in the United States. Under the Biden administration, the country has pledged to reduce its emissions by 50-52 percent by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels), to fully decarbonize its electricity mix by 2035, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Electric vehicles, therefore, are central to the White House's climate plan, but they are also the object of industrial competition with China and a subject of conflict with the Republican Party in view of the presidential elections in November.
In a statement, Biden highlighted the transformation of the American auto industry towards electric technology, speaking of “hundreds of new factories expanded across the country. Hundreds of billions in private investment and thousands of good-paying unionized jobs.” The Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 law that contains 369 billion dollars in public incentives for the manufacturing of clean technologies (solar panels, batteries, hydrogen electrolysers and more), also provides tax credits for purchase of electric vehicles, up to $7,500.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE NEW REGULATION ON EXHAUST EMISSIONS
The new regulation of the Environmental Protection Agency progressively raises the permitted exhaust emission limits from 2027 to 2032; it is very likely that, to comply with the new standards, car manufacturers will end up focusing on electric models, as they are already doing.
According to the agency, the regulation will make it possible to avoid the release of over seven billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere over the next thirty years; improving air quality, however, will translate into public health benefits of 13 billion dollars a year. The transition to electric mobility, however, will also be an expense: in addition to the need to reconvert the factories, the supply chain and the workforce, and in addition to the higher selling price of these vehicles, electric cars need an infrastructure rather widespread refill.
In 2023, the United States has installed over 172,000 charging points, but it is estimated that the country will need over two million by 2030 to support the growth of electric vehicles foreseen by the new government regulation.
THE REACTIONS
The Biden administration's decision was not liked by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, the association that brings together fossil fuel producers, which spoke of a car ban (i.e. a ban on cars) and spread the message in the so-called swings states , i.e. those states in which there is no clear majority of voters from the Democratic or Republican Party, and therefore very relevant in the presidential elections: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona .
The Republican Party – whose likely presidential candidate, Donald Trump, is highly critical of electric cars – is already starting to contest the measure. The attorney general of Louisiana, a state where the oil & gas industry is strong, stated for example that “they [Democrats ] may want all of us to drive electric vehicles or for there to be no cars at all, but in the end it's their decision. There is a limit to their authority to remake society according to their vision.”
Trump has promised to cancel climate programs approved by Biden.
THE WHITE HOUSE GUARANTEES TECHNOLOGICAL NEUTRALITY
As the New York Times explained, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers is spreading a false message. The emissions regulation is not a ban , a prohibition: that is, it does not oblige the sale of electric vehicles nor does it prohibit the sale of cars and pick-ups with internal combustion engines. Instead, it forces car manufacturers to respect new limits on emissions throughout the entire production range of the product: however, it is up to the manufacturers to decide how, and with what technology, to respect the limits.
For example, car manufacturers will be able to comply with the new standards – those that do not could receive fines – by selling different types of cars: advanced petrol, hybrid, electric or hydrogen models. Furthermore, the regulation does not apply to the second-hand market.
Among low-emission technologies for mobility, however, electric is clearly ahead of hydrogen. “The future is electric,” also recognized John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the group that represents almost all the companies that sell electric vehicles in the United States. Bozzella, however, added that the new rules “take into account the importance of choice for drivers and preserve their ability to choose the vehicle best suited to them”.
BIDEN MUST PLEASE THE AUTOMOTIVE UNIONS
The Environmental Protection Agency's emissions regulation, moreover, has been softened compared to the initial proposal to accommodate both car manufacturers – who are investing in electric, but say they need time to adapt to the new technology – and to the auto industry unions, particularly the United Auto Workers, the largest.
The United Auto Workers fears that the transition to battery-powered mobility could cause many job losses because electric vehicles contain fewer moving parts than traditional cars and therefore require less labor. Furthermore, many of the new electric car and battery factories are being builtin southern states, which are less unionized than Michigan and the rest of the Midwest (once the undisputed hub of US automotive ).
Biden needs the support of unions in the elections: Michigan is one of the swing states .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/joe-biden-regole-emissioni-auto-elettriche/ on Thu, 21 Mar 2024 09:31:03 +0000.