Why France worries about the second wave of Covid
Facts, numbers and comments in the in-depth analysis of the newspaper Le Monde on Covid in France
As Le Monde reports, the incidence now exceeds the alarm threshold in 19 departments and the positivity rate continues to increase. Doctors and specialists ask for "awareness".
The holidays are really over. The French have returned to the big cities and, after weeks of little traffic, the virus is making its way. One warning sign after another comes on. The incidence of Covid-19 now exceeds the alert threshold – 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – in nineteen departments and the positivity rate (percentage of the number of positive people divided by the number of people tested, in the last seven days) continues to increase: it reached 4.9% on Sunday 6 September, up from 4.3% in the middle of the week.
In its Sunday update, the French Agency for Public Health Security (SPF) noted an "exponential" increase in the circulation of the virus and a "worrying" transmission dynamic. Seven new departments are in the red zone, bringing the total to twenty-eight. “The number of cases per week is currently growing by 30% and the number of hospital admissions by 15%. If we continue at this pace, in December we will reach a critical situation in several regions of France ”, epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet warned on Sunday on LCI.
A week after the start of the school year, these messages of concern contrast with those sent to the French in some regions where the virus circulates most. On Wednesday 2 September, the president of the regional council of Ile-de-France, Valérie Pécresse, urged employees to return to the office, despite the fact that the metro lines were already crowded at rush hour. On Saturday 5 September, the prefect of Bouches-du-Rhône, Christophe Mirmand, also surprised by authorizing the opening of bars and restaurants until half past midnight, just ten days after having imposed a curfew at 11pm.
Quarantine, this two-week isolation period recommended for positive cases to limit transmission of Covid-19, could also be shortened to seven days. The decision was not made, but Health Minister Olivier Veran said this weekend that he had asked scientists for an "opinion".
THE CONCERNS OF HOSPITAL OPERATORS
"We know more about the virus, and the data show that most of the transmission occurs within the first five days of infection," says Yazdan Yazdanpanah, an infectious disease specialist at Bichat Hospital and a member of the Scientific Council, noting that a quarantine period shorter would make it more "acceptable". "We also need to think about the people, life and economy of the country," he said. On the other side of the pendulum, wearing a mask on the outside has become the norm in all major French cities.
Full-scale testing therefore continues for authorities, who do not have much visibility on the impact of the measures taken. “They should allow us to start seeing a decrease in the increase in new cases. This is what I hope, ”said Olivier Véran on Saturday 5 September on BFM-TV, acknowledging that there could be“ an increase – not massive – in the number of severe cases in intensive care within the next two weeks ”.
On the ground, hospital staff admit they are more concerned. On Sunday, in Bouches-du-Rhône, 67 patients were admitted to intensive care, compared with 30 the previous week. “More than two thirds of these patients come from Marseille, where the situation is far more worrying,” warns Professor Laurent Papazian, head of intensive care at the Nord hospital and coordinator of the departmental network of intensive care services. "Everyone must remain in their place and I do not have to judge the measures taken by the authorities, but I would like people to listen when I warn of the spread of the virus, and that the authorities would take it into account", insists the doctor, who fears the arrival of a second wave of Covid-19 in Marseille.
This weekend, 300 patients were hospitalized in Bouches-du-Rhône due to the coronavirus – nearly 4,700 across France. They are already mobilizing almost 20% of the 300 resuscitation beds currently available in the ward and only a few dozen additional places are available.
"GOVERNMENT'S INTERVENTION IS ABOUT TO CHANGE"
“There has been too much activity in the hospital to compensate for the delays in interventions due to containment,” explains Professor Papazian. It is having an impact on intensive care units, which are difficult to scale, also due to staff burnout and subsequent absenteeism. "If the outbreak continues at the same pace, it may be necessary to transfer the patient to other areas."
Many doctors agree with Professor Papazian that the current spate of cases is a consequence of the "lax vigilance against the virus during the month of August in the city" and call for awareness. On his Twitter account, Dominique Rossi, chairman of the medical commission of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille (AP-HM), launched an appeal for the mobilization of the Marseillais: “We need you to contain the wave. "
“The government 's attitude is about to change. We should be more careful, ”says François-René Pruvot, president of the Lille conference of presidents of the medical community of CHU institutes, the structures representing hospital doctors.
After exchanging information with several of his counterparts, he believes that "the situation has been changing in recent days". “We have been lulled by the idea of a small epidemic outbreak in the fall. But it is obvious that the big cities will be hit, we will not stop it. We are all a week behind Marseille. I'm afraid what we expected for October will happen sooner, ”he says.
"WE MUST NOT STAY TO OBSERVE"
In Bordeaux, the infectious disease and resuscitation wards, which remained empty during the first wave of Covid-19, are ready to welcome a large number of patients, with four possible scenarios depending on the influx of patients with severe forms.
"We are not concerned with predicting, but anticipating," emphasizes Denis Malvy, an infectious disease specialist at Bordeaux University Hospital and a member of the scientific advisory committee. According to him, the situation is not comparable to that of March: the Gironde, now classified as a red zone, was spared from the first wave.
"There is a consensus for self-confinement by those at risk," he explains. The hospitalized are much younger than before, but beware, "there is no dividing line between these populations", warns the doctor, who is also concerned about the possible impact of the change of season on the circulation of the virus.
While Olivier Véran promised on Saturday that "within two, three weeks at the latest, access to tests will be facilitated", the hospital has already revised its testing policy in order to prioritize patients and healthcare professionals without delay. “We are no longer able to wipe out everything the liberal government cannot do. The virology department is already at work 24 hours a day. If a second wave comes, we don't have to stand by and watch, ”the doctor insists.
The impact of the various measures taken should be visible within four to six weeks, as well as the effect of the start of the new school year and the arrival of the first seasonal viruses.
(Extract from the foreign press review by Epr Comunicazione )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/francia-seconda-ondata-covid-19/ on Sat, 12 Sep 2020 06:01:29 +0000.