Why Mario Draghi will not follow Mario Monti’s policies
“I have the impression that the columnist for Corriere della Sera, Ferruccio de Bortoli, looks to Draghi but in fact thinks of Monti. I don't agree. Here because". The comment by Gianfranco Polillo, former undersecretary for the economy in the Monti government
Could one disagree with Ferruccio de Bortoli's editorial in the Corriere della Sera ? Of course yes: not so much on individual considerations. The reference to the weakness of the Italian "human capital" is essential. The real black hole of a country that fills its mouth with greens – the sector in which Italy is ahead of many other countries, as the findings of the European Commission itself show – and is silent on the growing gap that concerns all other issues , in which the phenomenon of development is articulated.
It is the overall approach, which is not convincing. One gets the impression that the editorialist looks to Mario Draghi, but in fact he thinks of Mario Monti. To those policies with a slightly extremist slant, which on the one hand have allowed Italy to stop a financial crisis, which could have devastating effects, on the other have produced almost lethal consequences. Above all: the birth of the 5 stars as a political movement, with an electoral success of about 25 percent, destined from that moment on to make the life of the country more dramatic and uncertain.
The policies of the former Governor of the ECB can only be different. With spreads on Italian bonds below 100 basis points, compared to 575 at the end of 2011, it would make no sense to talk about austerity or tears and blood. This does not mean throwing money out of the window, as has in part happened to date, because the growth of the public debt is less scary than in the more recent past. Thanks to Mario Draghi himself and his “unconventional” monetary policies.
The problem of resource allocation remains crucial, but with less trouble than in the past. There is therefore the necessary space to review both the institution of “quota one hundred” and the citizenship income. To limit its scope: strenuous jobs on the one hand, active labor policies on the other. And not a simple aid, intended to increase the 50 shades of gray, which characterize irregular work. In the background, therefore, a very different phase, compared to the events that led to the fall of the last government, chaired by Silvio Berlusconi.
The first difference is all too evident: underlined by all the analysts. The main problem of the next government will be how to plan, but above all spend, the 209 billion of the Next Generation Eu . A problem that is not easy to solve, given Italian bad habits, in the management of EU funds: a spending capacity that does not exceed 39 per cent and results in the loss of related resources in favor of competing countries. The first effort must therefore be to carefully select the possible programs: to look at their intrinsic qualities, but also at their actual feasibility. Taking into account the fact that, in these situations, the best can be the enemy of the good.
The necessary change that this change of pace requires is evident. We must pass from a "frugal" attitude to one that is not exactly carefree, but at least less sparagnino. The problem is not so much that of scarcity of resources, but of their best use to get Italy out of that sort of pit of underdevelopment it has been hiding in for years. The depth of which is measured by a rate of growth that is at the bottom of the civilized world. In this, the wisdom of Mario Draghi will be the real asset, which the President can bring to the table, whenever he will find himself faced with extravagant and counter-current requests.
All this, it is clear, requires a qualitative leap in understanding the phenomena that grip the country. Still too wrapped up in the after-effects of austerity. If there was a positive effect of Covid-19, it was to play down the problem of public debt. Which of course continues to exist, but not to the point of causing a sort of operative paralysis. The renunciation of exploring any other way: other than that of containment or the sting of a fiscal nature.
In the Italian reality this attitude has generated monsters. It has further slowed development, raised the level of unemployment, undermined the foundations of the welfare state, accentuated any imbalance. Starting from that between the north of the country and the south. A bankruptcy budget: especially not necessary. Since 2012, Italy, unlike in the past, has become a net exporter of capital. The cleanliness, imposed by the austerity policies, has expelled the most fragile realities from the market and selected new small and large champions, who have conquered market positions. Above all, though not exclusively, abroad.
At other times, Keynesian-style policies would have been followed. Instead of belatedly chasing the Chicago boys' 1970s precepts, attention would be paid to the strong balance of payments surplus – on average 2.5 per cent of GDP per year – as a symptom of excess savings – on average 50 billions a year – which the lack of investment made superfluous. Therefore, a productivist policy was attempted, with its collateral of reforms, which would have generated development and contained the debt / GDP ratio. All not with hindsight, but with that vision that feeds on disenchantment and realism. It will be said: but Germany, Holland, Denmark and Luxembourg have higher currency assets. Of course: but not the level of Italian unemployment. And this is the element that makes a “development model”, which has those characteristics, unsustainable.
Will the landscape change with Mario Draghi? This is to be hoped for. If this experiment also fails, there will be no more trains. It is good that the political forces, which support it, are aware of this. The labor that accompanied the accession is fine. But once the die has been cast, one must put aside one's own identity suggestions. And look ahead. At that halfway point, which the Draghi experiment, if successful, could produce
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-mario-draghi-non-seguira-le-politiche-alla-mario-monti/ on Mon, 08 Feb 2021 08:02:16 +0000.