Why the economy condemns Erdogan’s Turkey
The economic and political challenges for Erdogan. Conversation with Valeria Talbot, Head of the ISPI MENA Observatory, in view of the May 14 elections in Turkey
The presidential elections in Turkey on 14 May will be played on the wire. In fact, it is head-to-head in the polls between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People's Party and candidate of the table of the six main opposition parties. An election that according to Valeria Talbot , Head of the ISPI MENA Observatory, will be decided above all by economic issues.
Who is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and why according to the polls could he prevail over Erdogan?
At the moment the polls show them head to head, indeed according to the most recent Kılıçdaroğlu he would exceed Erdogan by a few percentage points. This result is linked to his figure as leader of the opposition, secular and moderate, even if it must be said that he is not a charismatic figure like Erdogan's. However Kılıçdaroğlu remains the person chosen at the table of six, which brings together the six main opposition parties including that of Kılıçdaroğlu himself, i.e. the People's Republican Party, which is the largest and of Kemalist tradition.
Is it true that economic issues will dominate this electoral round?
The economy is certainly the most important factor because, even according to the polls, it can be seen that for most of the Turks the main problem today is the economy. At the time, the economy was Erdogan's forte, the source of his successes; in recent years, however, due to the economic crisis, high inflation and the strong erosion of purchasing power, the economic situation has worsened and now weighs on the choices of the electorate and on the consensus towards the Turkish leadership.
Among other things, it has already happened, in 2019.
Yes, in the local elections of 2019, those following the financial and currency crisis of 2018, Erdogan's party, AKP, lost the two most important cities of Turkey, namely Istanbul and Ankara, and in that context the economic situation had had a strong weight in the reactions of the electorate.
How do you explain that Erdogan still enjoys broad consensus despite the thousand shoves he has given to the democratic and human rights system as well as to the independent media?
Because in any case over the years Erdogan has managed to create a very deep-rooted system, a patronage system. Let's not forget that he has a strong foothold in Anatolia's conservative electorate. There is also another reason, namely the fact that the strong man in charge represents stability and continuity.
So we can say in the end that May 14th will be a choice between a monocratic power and a political proposal characterized in a pluralist sense. Is that so?
The choice will be between a system centered on the figure of Erdogan and a change brought about by the common will of the opposition to return to a parliamentary-type system. In fact, we know that since 2018 Turkey has become a presidential republic with a strong centralization of powers in the hands of the figure of the President. Therefore, in the event of a victory for the opposition, we should expect a return to parliamentarianism, a return to a democratic process, to a balance between the various powers of the state, with particular regard to respect for the rule of law which in recent years has undergone a strong erosion.
Speaking of pluralism, many observe that the Kurds will tip the balance in these elections? It is true?
Presumably yes. The Kurds have not presented their own presidential candidacy and therefore this choice has the meaning of implicit support for the candidacy of Kılıçdaroğlu, a figure who manages to attract the Kurdish electorate. So the Kurdish vote will be as important as it was in Istanbul in 2019.
Erdogan has gained great international prestige with his mediation work between Russia and Ukraine, which took the form of the famous wheat agreement. Is this protagonism of Turkey, which among other things has re-established relations with many of the neighboring countries with which it had had problematic relations, this activism in foreign policy, in short, a factor that will count in the choices of voters?
Foreign policy activism also has domestic implications. The wheat agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been much celebrated in the country as a success of the President and therefore it has certainly had positive repercussions internally, just as the normalization policy carried out in the last year and a half towards of Middle Eastern rivals and competitors. We are talking about the rapprochement and re-establishment of diplomatic relations with the rich monarchies of the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the reopening of dialogue with Israel and, just in recent months, with Egypt.
A real turnaround, one might say.
Yes, indeed today Erdogan's Turkey is a country that in foreign policy has recalibrated its aggressive and muscular posture to assume a more relaxed and dialogical attitude, presenting itself as a stabilizing factor for the Middle Eastern region. This evolution is mainly due to interests of an economic nature….
Riad's money was useful.
Those of Riyadh, as well as those of the United Arab Emirates.
The situation on the southern border remains very hot and it hasn't been long since Erdogan threatened a new armed intervention in Syria. What is the most recent picture?
At the moment there is no new front. We recall that Turkey had continued to bomb for months, until an earthquake struck which interrupted all military operations. However, a Turkish presence remains in northern Syria and Ankara occasionally conducts raids against Kurdish militias affiliated with the PKK, because for Turkey it is a matter of national security, of border and territorial security against what is perceived as a big threat.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-leconomia-condanna-la-turchia-di-erdogan/ on Fri, 12 May 2023 05:50:52 +0000.