Will China save us from climate change? Report Nyt
It seems absurd but Xi Jinping has been betting for decades that China can dominate the global transition to green energy (and it seems he is succeeding). The New York Times article
At first glance, Xi Jinping seems to have lost his bearings. The Chinese president seems to be suffocating the entrepreneurial dynamism that has allowed his country to emerge from poverty and become the world's factory. He set aside Deng Xiaoping's maxim "Getting rich is glorious" in favor of central planning and communist-flavored slogans such as "ecological civilization" and "new quality productive forces," which predicted the end of the Chinese economic miracle . The New York Times writes.
But Xi has actually been betting for decades that China can dominate the global transition to green energy, with his single party acting as a driving force in a way that free markets can't or won't. Its ultimate goal is not only to address one of humanity's most pressing problems – climate change – but also to position China as a global savior in the process.
IS XI OR THE WEST RIGHT ABOUT THE GREEN TRANSITION?
The process has already begun. In recent years, the transition away from fossil fuels has become Xi's mantra and the underlying theme of China's industrial policies. The results are visible: China is now the world's leading producer of climate-friendly technologies, such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Last year, the energy transition was the main driver of overall investment and economic growth in China, the first major economy to achieve this.
This raises an important question for the United States and for all of humanity: Is Xi right? Is a state system like China's better suited to solving a generational crisis like climate change, or is the answer a decentralized market approach, i.e. the American way?
The evolving situation could have serious implications for American power and influence.
Look what happened in the early 20th century, when fascism posed a global threat. America entered the fight late, but with its industrial might – the arsenal of democracy – it emerged victorious. Whoever opens the door inherits the kingdom and the United States has set about building a new architecture of trade and international relations. The era of American dominance has begun.
CHINA TO CONQUER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Climate change is, similarly, a global problem, threatening our species and global biodiversity. Where will Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and other large developing countries that are already facing the effects of climate change find the solutions?
In technologies that offer an affordable path to decarbonization, and so far China is providing the majority of solar panels, electric cars and more. Chinese exports, increasingly driven by green technology, are booming, with much of the growth in exports to developing countries.
LOOK LONG TERM
From the perspective of America's neoliberal economy, a state push like this might seem illegitimate or even unjust. The state, with its subsidies and its political directives, is making decisions that are best left to the markets, it is thought.
But China's leaders make their own calculations, which prioritize stability in the decades ahead over shareholder returns today. Chinese history is dotted with dynasties that fell due to famine, floods or failure to adapt to new realities. The Chinese Communist Party's central planning system values constant struggle for one's own good, and today's struggle is against climate change.
China received a frightening reminder of this in 2022, when large swaths of the country were baked for weeks by a record heat wave that dried rivers, dried out crops and caused numerous heatstroke deaths.
The Chinese government knows that it must make this green transition out of rational self-interest or risk joining the Soviet Union on the scrap heap of history, and it is actively positioning itself to do so. It is increasingly led by people with backgrounds in science, technology and environmental issues. Shanghai, the country's largest city and its financial and industrial spearhead, is led by Chen Jining, an environmental systems expert and former Chinese minister of environmental protection. Across the country, money is being poured into developing and bringing to market new advances in areas like rechargeable batteries and creating corporate champions in renewable energy.
WHAT ELSE IS HIDING BEHIND THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMITMENT
To be clear, for Xi this green agenda is not a purely environmental commitment. It also helps him strengthen his grip on power. In 2015, for example, the Central Environmental Inspection Team was formed to investigate whether provincial leaders and even central government agencies were complying with his green push, giving him another tool with which to exercise his already considerable power and authority.
At the same time, blocking renewable energy sources is a national security issue for Xi; unlike the United States, China imports nearly all of its oil, which could be cut off by the U.S. Navy at chokepoints like the Straits of Malacca in the event of war.
USA-CHINA, COMPARISON OF ACTIONS
Xi's plan – called the “Green Leap Forward” – has serious shortcomings. China continues to build coal-fired power plants and its annual greenhouse gas emissions remain far higher than those of the United States, even though American emissions are higher on a per capita basis. China's electric vehicle industry was built on subsidies, and the country may use forced labor to produce solar panels. These are serious concerns, but they take a backseat when Pakistan floods, Brazil wants to build an electric vehicle factory or South Africa desperately needs solar panels for a faltering energy grid.
American policy could inadvertently help China grab global market share of renewable energy products. When the United States – for reasons of national security or protectionism – keeps Chinese companies like Huawei out of the American market or rolls out the welcome mat to electric vehicle producers like BYD or companies that deal with artificial intelligence or self-driving cars autonomous, these companies must look elsewhere.
President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, aimed at addressing climate change, has put the United States on a solid path to carbon neutrality. But America's decentralization and focus on private innovation means that government policy cannot have the same impact as it has in China.
WE NEED A US-CHINA ALLIANCE
It is therefore crucial that Americans recognize that for most of the world, and perhaps for all of us, China's ability to provide low-cost green technology is, all things considered, very good news. All of humanity needs to transition to renewable energy on a large scale, and quickly.
America still leads in innovation, while China excels at taking frontier science and making its real-world application cost-effective. If American policymakers, investors, and businesses recognize that climate change is the greatest threat to humanity, it could open up paths of diplomacy, collaboration, and constructive competition with China that will benefit us all.
Together, China and the United States could decarbonize the world. But if the Americans don't get serious, the Chinese will do it without them.
And if the United States tries to impede China, whether through corporate blacklists, trade or technology bans, or diplomatic pressure, it will end up appearing to be part of the climate problem. It happened earlier this month, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during a visit to China, urged the country's officials to limit exports of green technology that the United States says harm American companies.
POLLUTE TO DECARBONIZE
Xi will not completely abandon the polluting manufacturing-for-export economic model that has served China so well, nor does he appear ready to stop the construction of coal plants. Both are considered necessary for economic and energy security until the green transition is complete. But now they are just a means to an end. The ultimate goal, it seems, is to achieve carbon neutrality by dominating the industries that make it possible.
Just as the United States was a latecomer to World War II, Chinese cleantech companies are latecomers, leaning on technologies developed elsewhere. But history rewards not necessarily those who arrived first, but those who arrived last, when a problem has been solved. Xi seems to sense the climate chaos looming on the horizon. Winning the race for solutions means winning the world to come.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review edited by eprcomunicazione )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/ci-salvera-la-cina-dal-cambiamento-climatico/ on Sat, 27 Apr 2024 05:20:46 +0000.