Will the Draghi government remain a prisoner of the fight against the pandemic?
What do I think of the first moves of the Draghi government. Giuliano Cazzola's opinion
According to the latest rapid survey of industrial production (3 March) by the Confindustria Study Center (CSC) in the first two months of 2021 the sector confirms its resilience, even in a crisis context pandemic in recent weeks showed signs of revival.
The resilience of the industry, whose direct weight on the national added value is about 19% (net of construction), collides with a tertiary sector that is worth over 70% of GDP and which is still heavily penalized by the necessary measures containment measures introduced by the Government to limit infections from Covid-19. The most recent statistics confirm the clear gap (which is widening) between these two components of the economic system and this makes it probable, in terms of GDP, that a situation of extreme weakness will persist in the first quarter of this year, after the – 2.0% cyclical in the fourth of 2020.
Italian industrial production continued to grow also in February (+ 0.7%) after the rebound recorded in the previous month (+ 1.3% in the economy). A positive contribution from industry is expected to boost GDP in the first quarter, against a tertiary sector that is still weakened by the persistence of activity limitations in some sectors and in the movement of people, with serious consequences especially along the entire tourism chain. , which has undergone – we add – a further mortification with the failure to start the winter season. The CSC cites as confirmation of its considerations the fact that, according to Istat, the confidence of manufacturing companies in February returned to above the levels of a year earlier, when the health emergency was at the beginning: the index rose to 99.0 versus 98.1 in February 2020. The recovery in confidence, after the temporary setback in January, is explained by better judgments on production and orders, against a lower level of inventories (which had been accumulated in January).
These data indicate – writes the CSC – that demand has grown at a higher rate than expected, so there has been a decrease in stocks of finished products. The foreign component, in particular that of capital goods, is the main driver, according to entrepreneurs. The IHS-Markit survey, conducted among purchasing managers, also shows similar results in February: the manufacturing PMI (the Purchasing Managers Index is the main global economic indicator and is based on surveys conducted monthly on a group of companies, monitoring the changes in variables such as production, new orders, employment levels and prices) rose to 56.9 on the levels of January 2018. In particular, the indices relating to production and orders have further improved, reaching the values of three years ago.
However, the CSC calls for avoiding easy optimisms. In fact, the uncertainty linked to the risks of a third wave of spread of the virus is projected on a scenario that, to date, in industry appears to be significantly improving compared to the end of 2020, of which there are the first signs in the statistics. sanitary. Therefore, according to the note, it is crucial to accelerate the vaccination of the population and to intervene in a non-generalized manner to reduce the contagion curve and thus avoid interrupting in the bud the first glimmers of a recovery that is still weak and far from consolidating. So far the CSC.
The writer, however, also feels authorized by this rapid analysis to insist on a question: to what extent can an economy allow itself to be conditioned by the "external constraint" which is not represented only by the contagion, but by the measures that are they taken to moderate their effects? Even in the fight against the virus there must be a cost / benefit balance, especially when the costs (the decimation of the economy) are evident, while the benefits (the saving of human lives) are only presumed, because proof to the contrary is neither admitted nor possible. (what would have happened on the health side with fewer constraints and closures).
There is very little new today in the sun and a lot of ancient: at the expiry of the last Dpcm of Conte, another Dpcm was approved (even more voluminous than the previous ones) which has more or less the same prohibitions and prescriptions to which , according to the changing colors, they have abided and will still have to abide by the citizens. Many economic activities – in the universe of services – still do not work by law. Certainly, allocating more adequate subsidies (we will see the decree) and with greater concern is important for the social stability of a country on the verge of a nervous breakdown, but it does not allow us to leave the logic of primum vive. Let us hope that the changes introduced in the command line will be able to speed up the vaccine operation. It is a race against time. He saw right Draghi. In his statements during the European summit, the danger that the premier sees clearly emerged and that is that the mutations of the virus make the vaccines available up to now obsolete and the vaccination campaign insufficient, which nevertheless presented many more difficulties than those imagined. It is certainly correct to color Italy by transforming the peninsula into a kaleidoscope, to close the cities to avoid gatherings, to assist workers and companies with payments that will no longer be called '' refreshments '' but '' compensation or support '' .
The government, however, cannot remain a prisoner of the fight against the pandemic. The necessary and adequate measures should also be taken in a more energetic way, with an air of military culture; but if the executive's action were to limit itself to lowering the shutters of the shops and closing the schools, sooner or later the Italians will ask themselves a question: was Conte not enough to carry out this policy? Was there a need to bother Draghi to check that the citizens wear the mask and, when the vaccines are there, go in a disciplined manner to undergo the life-saving injection?
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/il-governo-draghi-restera-prigioniero-della-lotta-alla-pandemia/ on Thu, 04 Mar 2021 09:08:39 +0000.