Will the United States cooperate with Russia on counter-terrorism in Afghanistan?
The United States is seeking cooperation from Central Asian countries, and even Russia, for over-the-horizon counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan. Here is what is known
The United States is negotiating with the countries bordering Afghanistan to obtain their logistical collaboration in the over-the-horizon anti-terrorism operations they would like to carry out against the Taliban regime or the jihadist groups present in the country.
WHAT ARE THE "OVER-THE-HORIZON" OPERATIONS
Over-the-horizon refers to those military operations that started from outside the destination country.
A concrete example could be the late August drone attack in Afghanistan against two militiamen of the Islamic State of the Khorasan province (ISIS-K) , the division of the Islamic State that claimed responsibility for the attack near the Kabul airport. Although the targets of the attack were in Afghan territory (to be precise in the province of Nangarhar), the drone had taken off from an unspecified location in the Middle East.
WHAT THE UNITED STATES WANT
According to a series of statements released in recent months, it would seem that the US plans are to maintain a monitoring and offense capability in Afghanistan "from outside", using aircraft stationed in neighboring or directly neighboring countries.
The purpose of all this is to keep Afghanistan under control to prevent it from turning back into a base of operations for terrorist groups hostile to America, and to do so without incurring the costs of a physical presence. According to the US generals al-Qaeda, author of the attacks of 11 September 2001, it could be rebuilt in a very short period of time, from six to thirty-six months.
However, it is not clear, in practice, how and where Washington will act, which does not have military bases in any of the countries bordering Afghanistan, which also does not have an outlet to the sea. It does not even seem plausible – at least to date – the opening of new structures, both because no agreements have been reached with the governments of the area, and because America wants to concentrate its forces in Asia-Pacific to contain China.
WHAT ARE THEY DOING
Although no agreements have been reached, we know from POLITICO's revelations that Joe Biden's administration has started negotiations with the governments of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan "and others".
Among the infrastructures in possession of these countries that the United States has taken into consideration for its plan there are also bases managed by Russia, historically very present in Central America. Recently, however, Moscow announced that it will strengthen its military post in Tajikistan (the largest Russian base abroad) with thirty new tanks, which will replace the old ones.
UNITED STATES-RUSSIA DIALOGUE?
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States has asked Russia for an explanation regarding a proposal from President Vladimir Putin, who has offered to host US counter-terrorism operations in Russian bases in Central Asia. As reported by the Wall Street Journal , US Joint Chief of Staff Mark Milley recently discussed the matter with his Russian counterpart Valery Gerasimov.
DOUBTS
As noted by POLITICO, that the United States will rely on Russia, historically hostile nation to conduct anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan would be a stroke of incredible scene. And it could also prove to be a risk to American national security, because military equipment that would have access to Russian bases would be exposed to Russian intelligence gathering.
More generally, there are doubts about the effectiveness of over-the-horizon operations and their accuracy, especially after the August 29 drone attack in Kabul that killed ten civilians (including seven children), and not militiamen. of ISIS-K.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/stati-uniti-russia-antiterrorismo-over-the-horizon-afghanistan/ on Thu, 30 Sep 2021 11:59:46 +0000.