Will US-Turkey relations with Biden in the White House change?
Comments, analyzes and scenarios taken from an Emirati newspaper on the evolution of relations between the United States and Turkey in the event of Biden's victory
What would change in the relationship between Washington and Ankara if Joe Biden wins the presidential elections?
Ian J. Lynch tried to answer this question on Ahval , an Emirati newspaper that deals exclusively with Turkish affairs – from an obviously not always sympathetic perspective – and publishes its editions in English, Turkish and Arabic.
Lynch's examination begins with the observation that under Trump the relationship between the United States and Turkey has deteriorated significantly, but nevertheless the Turkish President Erdogan has managed to maintain a positive connection with his American colleague. And this, according to Lynch, is the first thing he would skip in the event of Trump's defeat in the elections.
THE ANALYST
"Turkey has customized the relationship with the US and is dependent on Trump to prevent sanctions from being launched (for the S-400 case) and to ensure that things do not explode definitively", is the comment that Aaron Stein, director of research at Foreign Policy Research Institute, delivery to Lynch to reaffirm the symbiosis between the two presidents against the backdrop of smoldering rubble.
DISCRASIA
The fact that stands out the most is therefore this discrepancy between the friendship between the two presidents and a relationship between the two countries that in the meantime was falling apart. A dyscrasia well testified by the statement made by Trump some time ago to the Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward: "I get along very well with Erdogan, even if it shouldn't be so because everyone tells me 'what a horrible man'".
CASE JSF
We can imagine President Trump surrounded by angry helpers with Turkey when it was decided to remove the country from the JSF program for deciding to purchase the S-400 anti-air defense missile system from Russia. Aides who must have remained deeply embittered to see their leader repeatedly oppose the launch of sanctions against Turkey which would be made mandatory by a state law.
SYRIA DOSSIER
But the shock of Trump's collaborators must have been equally striking when in October two years ago, against the recommendations of the Pentagon and the State Department, the president gave Erdogan the green light and allowed him to invade northeastern Syria. That green light came, coincidentally, after a phone call between the two presidents.
THE SCENARIO FOR TURKEY
Here is the problem that Lynch sees in the background and lets Nicholas Danfort, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, explain: “Over the past four years, Erdogan has managed to alienate the sympathy of virtually everyone in Washington apart from President Trump. If he loses, this will objectively constitute a big problem for Turkey ",
WHAT BIDEN THINK OF ERDOGAN
For Biden, Danfort continues, the best way to show the American people and the world that the wind has changed could be represented precisely by a clear distancing from the irate Erdogan.
Moreover, Biden does not have much sympathy for what in an interview with the New York Times in January he defined an "autocrat". The reactions of Ankara after the publication of the newspaper were furious, and in the criticisms rained down from Turkey towards America it was not difficult to recognize a preference for Trump's re-election.
ACCUSATIONS AND THREATS BETWEEN ERDOGAN AND BIDEN
Even Erdogan's spokesman, İbrahim Kalın, took the trouble to accuse Biden of arrogance and hypocrisy, formulating veiled threats against the candidate.
On the other hand, in the interview with the Times Biden did not go into the subtle talking about Turkey, hinting at the possibility of strengthening the opposition to favor an electoral defeat of Erdogan and indicating the willingness to collaborate with Ankara's rivals who at this moment they are dueling with the Sultan in the Eastern Mediterranean.
BRIDGES IN VIEW
Despite this blatant Turkish predilection for Trump, there are signs that Turkey is trying to build bridges in the other direction as well. Ahval refers to a well-known figure in the Turkish political world, Murat Güzel, who has many entrances in the American Democratic Party and has been very active during this period: he has seen the Democratic candidate several times in recent months and has told the Turkish press that Biden's conduct in the event of an election victory will not be informed by the harsh words issued by Biden himself in the January NYT interview.
THE SCENARIOS ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSTS
According to Danfort of the German Marahsll Fund, there will be opportunities during Biden's presidency to bring to the surface the knots that have plagued the Turkish-American relationship in recent years. Nonetheless, Danfort is also convinced that there will be institutional pressures that will moderate the hot spirits of the Biden administration in favor of maintaining at least a decent relationship with an important ally who could at any moment take other decisive steps in the direction of the Russian camp.
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official who has now joined the American Enterprise Institute, is finally of the opinion that Erdogan will be able to exert some personal influence with Biden as well. Joking, but not so much, Rubin commented that “a Biden administration would be much more attentive to Congressional warnings (against Turkey) unless Erdogan is able to summon Biden alone to a room on the phone to do his solicitations the same way he did with Obama and Trump ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/cambieranno-le-relazioni-usa-turchia-con-biden-alla-casa-bianca/ on Thu, 24 Sep 2020 06:01:56 +0000.