Elections 2022: parties, leaderships and passing love affairs
Elections and leadership, what emerges from an SDA Bocconi survey
A very useful picture emerges from an SDA Bocconi survey for understanding the influence of leaders on the overall vote of their parties, with respect to the votes defined as '' structural vote '' or attributable to the establishment of every single political group and bandwagon vote, that is vote of imitative entrainment of current trends.
The data are significant because they demonstrate both the attractiveness of leadership, but at the same time the precariousness of that success if it is not based on an adequate structure to consolidate and stabilize it over time.
The relative solidity of the structure, on the other hand, contributes to compensate, or at least to contain, the limits of leadership. The research deals with the following parties: FdI, Lega, FI, Pd, Action-Iv, M5S.
In compliance with the electoral rules I will not mention forecasts regarding the share of votes collected by each party, but only the percentages of consent attributable to the reasons for the vote, which are completely indifferent – as is easily understood – in relation to the number of votes that will be won tomorrow. . In a group of parties the figure of the leader predominates: 92% in Action-IV, 83% in M5S, 81% in FdI.
The structural vote is largely prevalent in the other parties: just under 75% in the Democratic Party, 72.6% in the League, and just over 69% in Forza Italia. Another aspect of the vote for Fratelli d'Italia deserves particular emphasis: the trailing vote (bandwagon) is equal to 16.4%, while the structural vote is very modest (the lowest percentage compared to the parties considered) (2, 6%). The influence of the M5S leadership in the overall vote raises some surprises – but it is a matter of opinion – while a different outcome was perhaps expected for the League (13%) – where the vote of drag (14%) – and Forza Italia (17% for the leader and a 13% bandwagon). The Democratic Party adds an 11% drag to 75% of the structural vote, but the leadership must be content with an influence of just over 14%.
We can conclude this brief examination by observing how the chronicles of recent years give an account of an electorate inclined to falling in love that does not always turn into lasting love over time.
It is therefore necessary to keep an eye on both the exploit of the leadership but also the relative stability ensured by the structural vote.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/elezioni-2022-i-partiti-le-leadership-e-gli-innamoramenti-passeggeri/ on Sun, 25 Sep 2022 06:54:05 +0000.