A French saves the Tories from the supplementary: so Boris relaunches himself
The British attribute an almost mystical importance to by-elections. They try to see between the lines of the constituency vote more or less lost for the country a common thread that helps to understand the state of the art of the parties. Thus, the by-election of Old Bexley and Sidcup in south-east London – made necessary after the death of Tory MP James Brokenshire – spurred a complex political season, apparently marked by the loss of support of Boris Johnson and the first overtaking of the legislature – at least in the polls – of Labor against the Conservatives. The test was, therefore, presented by the British media as a referendum on the British premier and the Tories also fielded, in support of their candidate, local city councilor Louie French, all the big names in the party. They toured the area and canvassed – propaganda – all the big names in the party from the interior minister, Priti Patel, to the minister for Leveling Up, Michael Gove, through Chancellor Sunak and Boris Johnson himself.
In the end, the result, indeed with a rather obvious outcome, smiled at the ruling party. And it is somewhat hilarious to think that a Frenchman saved Johnson right now. In fact, the new deputy obtained the majority of votes in the supplementary (51.48 per cent), but with a much reduced majority compared to that of Brokenshire: from about 19 thousand votes to 4,478, with a a 10 percent transfer of votes to Labor, a good result from the Reform Party heir to the Brexit Party , over 6 percent, and a turnout of 34 percent, the lowest in a supplementary since 2018.
It is too early to say whether the Man from Old Bexley and Sidcup will represent a trend that will consolidate nationally. The area, the outer belt of the capital, with an average income above the national average and a conservative electorate consolidated since the creation of the constituency in 1983, does not lend itself to verifying the balance of power of parties on a national basis. Nor can it be indicative of the new voting patterns recorded in 2019, with the Tories breaking through the red wall of the north-east of the country to the detriment of Labor. Of course, the high abstention can be seen from two points of view: a sign of discontent of the electorate with politics, of which the ruling party is at the expense. Or as the result of a foregone election contest that did not warm the hearts of the voters, already convinced that the Tories had victory in their pockets. The first hypothesis is supported by Labor, the second by the Conservatives. Party chairman Oliver Dowden has called the idea that Labor is making progress in traditionally blue areas "good for fools . "
Johnson, who is back in front of a couple of points in the polls this week, therefore appears to be holding on to this first round of voting. On 16 December there will be another supplementary, in North Shropshire, where the successor of the resigning Owen Paterson will be decided. And then in 2022 they will vote for the seat of Sir David Amess, killed by an Islamic fanatic in his constituency during a meeting with the voters. The Tories aim for 3-0 over Labor. For his part, Johnson aims to consolidate his leadership in a phase of great uncertainty due to the new restrictions caused by the Omicron variant, the controversy over migrants and the internal party discussion on economic policies. To put it in French, qui vivra verra.
The post A French saves the Tories from the supplementary: this is how Boris relaunches appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/un-french-salva-i-tories-alle-suppletive-cosi-boris-si-rilancia/ on Sat, 04 Dec 2021 03:49:00 +0000.