Burma, the past that does not pass: the military takes back all power (with Beijing’s green light)
On Monday morning, Burma ( Myanmar in the local language) woke up to the news of the arrest of the main civilian officials of the state, including the de facto Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi and the president of the nation U Win Myint, both former political prisoners. in the years of the military dictatorship. The military television announced that the legislative, executive and judicial power passed into the hands of the army chief ( Tatmadaw ), General Min Aung Hlaing. While soldiers patrolled the streets of the capital Naypyidaw and major cities in the country, access to the telephone network was interrupted and banking services suspended. The coup took place on the eve of the first session of the new national parliament, elected in November, in which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won 83 percent of the votes, relegating the loyal party to military to a clearly minority percentage.
The army, which according to the 2008 constitution still holds 25 percent of the seats in the parliamentary assembly, has been denouncing alleged irregularities in the electoral process for weeks, asking for a review of the ballots and the consequent updating of the parliamentary session. In the absence of feedback from the majority party, this is the official motivation of the military, the armed forces have taken the decision to " restore order ", assuming full powers for a year.
Burma has been ruled by military regimes for most of its history, since independence as a former British colony in 1948, in which Aung San Suu Kyi's father, the nationalist Aung San, played a leading role. since then the father of the Burmese homeland. In 1962, General Ne Win took over command by ousting a civil administration accused of bad governance: he would have ruled Burma with an iron fist until 1988, when he was forced to resign after a wave of national protests triggered by the economic crisis. A new generation of military would have taken its place, giving life to that devastating repressive machine that went down in history under the Orwellian name of State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), which from 1988 to 2011 – first under the dictatorship of Saw Maung and then under the long tyranny of General Than Shwe – he would have reduced Burma to an open-air prison, isolating it from the rest of the world, condemning it to starvation, plundering its natural resources and selling it off to the Chinese regime.
After the anti-government protests of 2007, in which the monks were for the first time active protagonists of dissidence and among the main victims of the ruthless repression, in 2008 the military junta agreed to a controlled transfer of power based on a new constitution that however, it guaranteed its preponderance in the key sectors of national politics and economy. Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest was lifted in November 2010. The NLD boycotted the first post-dictatorship elections, denouncing the absence of democratic guarantees, consequently overwhelmed by the military party (USDP). In 2012, the leader of the Burmese democratic movement presented herself together with other opponents in a round of by-elections: for the first time Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD entered parliament as a recognized opposition force.
The subsequent electoral triumph – in the 2015 legislative elections – opened the doors of the government of the country to Aung San Suu Kyi as State Counselor , a position equivalent to that of Prime Minister, specifically set up to guarantee her a leading role, being forbidden to law the presidency of the state (as married to a British citizen). The inevitable compromises with the armed forces in a transition controlled by the Tatmadaw earned her sharp criticism from the same who had made her a heroine of the struggle for democracy: under particular accusation her silence in the brutal repression of the Muslim Rohingya minority , which has led to a large scale humanitarian crisis. The main architect of this persecution was General Min Aung Hlaing, who yesterday deposed the civil government, had Aung San Suu Kyi arrested and turned back the clock of the unfortunate Burmese history by at least fifteen years.
In the first official statement, the former prime minister urged the population to take to the streets to " oppose the military coup " against the constitution " drawn up by themselves ". For their part, the armed forces have made it known that at the end of the period of national emergency decreed for the next twelve months they will call new elections and transfer power again. But no one who knows a little about the drama of this massacred nation can have any illusions about the next developments. Historian and diplomat Thanth Myint-U, a few hours after the arrests were announced, wrote on his Twitter account :
“The doors of a very different future have just opened. I have a feeling that no one will really be able to control what is to come from now on. Myanmar is a country awash with weapons, with deep divisions between ethnic and religious lines, where millions of people can barely feed themselves ”.
The coup highlights the spurious nature of the USDP's allegations of electoral fraud, which have already been denied by the main national and international supervisory bodies and, in the light of recent events, manifestly aimed at creating a casus belli for the seizure of power by the army. Moreover, the reasons that would have led the Tatmadaw to take on the administration of the country directly, exposing itself to a predictable wave of reproach and protest, are not entirely clear. The agreements between the civil government and representatives of the armed forces already guaranteed the latter full control of the state security apparatuses, of the key ministries (interior, borders and defense) and of the main economic assets , as per tradition.
The stripping of Burma under previous military juntas had in a sense been institutionalized by the transition pacts: the guarantee of greater political rights and freedoms in exchange for the consolidation of the privileges of the military elite . All at the expense of ethnic minorities, Roinghya but not only, which has always been a sacrificial lamb on the altar of central power balances: this time, however, with the complicity of Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, who proved rather ambiguous not only on this controversial issue but also in the matter of press and internet censorship. The personal position of the coup general Min Aung Hlaing, whose presidential ambitions would have been rejected by the NLD by virtue of the blunt electoral victory, would also have entered the plate of negotiations in recent days. According to some observers, it was precisely this refusal to tip the scales in favor of military action.
On the other hand, it would be naive to underestimate the influence of China, which for at least twenty years has fueled the national economy with investments and bribes of all kinds, and without whose consent, at least implicit, the army would hardly have moved. The last official meeting between Min Aung Hlaing – now in power – and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi dates back to three weeks ago. It is therefore unlikely that the news of the coup arrived like a bolt from the blue in Beijing which, according to some sources, would have made it known to the top of the army that they do not believe their electoral grievances are completely far-fetched: a green light between the lines. The Global Times (the Chinese regime's English-language press) called for an agreement " between the parties " for the maintenance of " peace and stability ", warning the Burmese authorities of " external interference ". Curious reference to a neutrality which, obviously, concerns only others and which seems to confirm that the current situation is not entirely unwelcome to the Chinese Communist Party.
The reaction of the US State Department is predictable which, through the mouth of the secretariat of state Blinken, ordered the junta to " immediately retrace its steps ", while the position of India and Japan, both leading commercial partners , is more cautious Burma, who limited themselves to a general declaration of principle in favor of the democratic process.
The next few days will be decisive for knowing the future of the political leaders in prison, while that of the country unfortunately seems already written: a sudden but not entirely unexpected return to the past, in a certain sense inherent in the institutional compromise between an omnipotent military apparatus and a government semi-civilian under guardianship and often conniving with the crimes of the armed forces. The popular reaction to yesterday's events will give a measure of the political and social change that Burma has experienced in the last decade. The November elections showed that, despite everything, the Burmese support Aung San Suu Kyi and her party and firmly believe in the democratic path they have taken, however limping. We will see if the force of arms will succeed in silencing once again the legitimate aspirations of a nation that seems doomed not to raise its head.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/birmania-il-passato-che-non-passa-i-militari-si-riprendono-tutto-il-potere-con-il-via-libera-di-pechino/ on Tue, 02 Feb 2021 05:07:00 +0000.