Putin folds back and relaunches: the Donbass card and the battle of narratives

16 February 20222 years ago babelfish

On the day when the Russian defense minister announces the withdrawal of some troops from the border with Ukraine, political and diplomatic attention shifts to the State Duma. The Moscow parliament approves the Communist Party's proposal to appeal to President Putin for the formal recognition of the so-called " people's republics " of Donbass, that is, the pro-Russian Ukrainian provinces of Luganks and Donetsk. These are the disputed territories in the east of the country in which an armed conflict has been ongoing since 2014 between Kremlin-financed secessionist rebels and the Ukrainian army, which the Minsk agreements of 2014-2015 tried to reconstruct without success. For years, both parties have mutually accused each other of failing to comply with the stipulated conditions, which are also interpreted differently by the contenders: especially controversial points on the degree of autonomy to be granted to the " rebel republics " and on the methods of conducting future elections to the internal of the same. Moscow's recognition of the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk would in fact mean the definitive repudiation of the agreements and a new chapter in relations between the two countries, already exacerbated by the massive deployment of Russian troops.

The fact that the decision of the Duma – which is dominated by the presidential party United Russia and always moves in concert with the Kremlin – comes at the same time as the announcement of a partial withdrawal of military personnel, indicates that some sort of negotiation is underway that should lead to defusing the risk of an armed conflict. The terms of this negotiation, which takes place between Washington, Kiev and Moscow, with the collateral participation of some European chancelleries (Paris and Berlin above all, but even Di Maio will fly to the Russian capital on Thursday), are not clear at the moment. But that the recognition of the pro-Russian republics is a card that Putin reserves the right to play in the complex political-diplomatic game in progress, is even taken for granted. We will see with what results, also because it is unlikely that Kiev will accept without reacting yet another Russian takeover bid on part of its eastern territories.

In recent days, a parallel conflict has intensified, a verbal battle that has mainly seen the Biden administration as the protagonist. On several occasions, through the mouths of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan, the White House has warned of the imminence of a Russian invasion, even going so far as to indicate the date between 15 and 16 February ( that is, between yesterday and today). As I write this, there are no concrete signs that such an operation is underway, from which it should be inferred that the information that the US intelligence passed on to President Biden was unsubstantiated.

In reality, on a less superficial analysis, the verbal escalation of the last few days must be inserted in the general context of the events. Putin accumulates troops on the Ukrainian border, surrounds it from three sides (Belarus, Russian territory, de facto Crimea), uses the threat to negotiate a redefinition of strategic and geopolitical balances in Eastern Europe with NATO / USA, does not obtain satisfactory answers but is conscious that an armed conflict would cost them too dearly. We need an honorable way out, salable as a victory to Russian public opinion and not interpretable as a sign of weakness by its opponents. Washington perceives that the pressure is all on Moscow, declares that in no case will NATO intervene directly, but sends weapons to Kiev to demonstrate its support for the Ukrainian cause. At the same time he raises diplomatic tones, hints that the Russians can attack at any moment and serves, voluntarily or not (time will tell), on a silver platter the opportunity to back down without feeling humiliated. As Shoigu begins the retreat – true or presumed that it matters little, only the message counts – the spokesperson of the foreign ministry Maria Zacharova triumphantly declares to the press: " February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day of the failure of Western propaganda, humiliated and destroyed without firing a shot ". Translated: as we said, no invasion in sight; as always, the West cries wolf for no reason. A new battle begins at this moment, that of the ex post narrative. While the pro-Russian pundits amplify the official message of the Kremlin, the United States can legitimately oppose their version of events: we have uncovered the cards of Moscow, forcing the Russians to withdraw without firing a shot.

Too early to say victory, the situation at the border is still too uncertain, too much fog to dispel over the secret negotiations that are certainly taking place at the moment on the sidelines of official declarations. But, as we tried to explain in the first article of this series , a war that is too announced is unlikely to break out, and even less if it doesn't suit anyone, as in this case. If it is not an invasion, it will not mean that the danger of a conflict will be averted: unless a definitive agreement on the status of Ukraine is reached (a prospect that remains very unlikely), Russia – Putin or not Putin – will hardly give up its ambitions on that. which has always considered a simple available territory.

In an interview with Libero , the director of Limes Lucio Caracciolo, declared that Moscow has already achieved the result it aspired to, which is to keep Ukraine away, at least for the moment, from NATO: if Russia does not attack, it will be because has already won. But it is precisely on the concept of victory that we should understand: if we consider that the massive deployment of military forces is aimed at achieving the minimum objective of cooling the Atlanticist ambitions of Kiev, then Putin will probably be able to bring this result home; however, if we shift attention to the medium and long term, it is difficult to think that – at present – the challenge launched by Russia actually serves to recover the geopolitical control of Ukraine, not to mention the reconstitution of a sphere of influence over its foreign countries near. In the absence of formal commitments on the part of NATO and the United States, read a full-blown betrayal of Ukrainian aspirations, the triumphal message that Putin will sell to his followers could soon turn into a Pyrrhic victory: " we want to solve this question now " , he significantly said yesterday during the joint press conference with German Chancellor Scholz. In short, the reassurance that NATO expansion is not on the agenda at the moment does not seem to be enough, he demands formal confirmation that it will not happen in any case.

And here we return to the Donbass map, which the domesticated Duma falls in the cold moment of the crisis. Formal recognition or not, the " rebel republics " are the key to the destabilization of the country pursued by Moscow and the concrete guarantee of its non-integration into Western institutions (EU and NATO). It should not be forgotten that the secessionists claim sovereignty over the entire Luganks and Donetsk region, therefore also over territories currently controlled by the central government. Keeping the conflict open to the east, opening the door to denouncing the Minsk agreements, forcing Zelensky into a reaction that could prelude, this time, a military intervention, all fall within the range of options that are more easily achievable without excessive costs in terms of international isolation. : from the western point of view, fighting for Kiev is not the same as fighting for Lugansk. Putin is aware of this and for this reason in the last few hours he has shifted general attention to the Donbass (where, according to him, " a genocide is underway "), which in the coming weeks will be at the center of diplomatic maneuvers.

The post Putin folds and relaunches: the Donbass card and the battle of narratives appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/putin-ripiega-e-rilancia-la-carta-del-donbass-e-la-battaglia-delle-narrazioni/ on Wed, 16 Feb 2022 03:46:00 +0000.