Taiwan time? Beijing threatens the military option. Would the West defend it?
In Tiananmen Square, during the solemn celebration of the centenary of the Communist Party, a worrying note of warfare was noted in Xi Jinping's speech. The absolute leader said very clearly that "anyone who tries to bully us will find himself on a collision course with a great steel wall forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese".
In this regard, the memory of the famous speech in which Benito Mussolini defined Italy as “a nation of proletarians, armed with 8 million bayonets”, ready to fight against the tanks of the plutocracies, and also against the Russian ones, comes spontaneously. On closer inspection, the Duce really had military ambitions, as his subsequent policy amply demonstrated.
Instead, Xi's speech seems to be aimed at discouraging external aggressions, noting the great development of the Chinese armed forces in recent decades. But is it really so?
In fact, Xi remarked that China is not giving up on "national reunification". And this means that the primary target is always Taiwan. The presence of the heirs of Chiang Kai-shek's nationalist China, who took refuge in Taiwan – the former Formosa – after the victory in the civil war that ended in 1949, is an evil to be eradicated for the leaders of Beijing.
Therefore, the forced "normalization" of Hong Kong was not enough. Nor is the forced pacification imposed on two non-Chinese regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang populated by Muslim Uyghurs enough.
For Beijing, Taiwan is an integral part of the People's Republic, even though its inhabitants voted overwhelmingly against annexation in the last elections, preferring to preserve the basic freedoms they now enjoy rather than live under a communist regime.
In the official maps, Beijing continues to include the small but technologically advanced island within its national borders. And the opinion of the inhabitants matters little, just as that of the citizens of Hong Kong did.
In recent times in the West it has been understood that Xi is serious, despite the invasion of the island involving great dangers. Beijing's jets systematically violate Taiwan's airspace, which is very close to mainland China.
The American and British secret services have also made it clear to their respective governments that Beijing has already drawn up detailed invasion plans, in which the navy, air force and amphibious landing forces are destined to play a crucial role.
What remains to be understood is to what extent the US, UK and Japan are willing to run to Taiwan's defense should the above theoretical scenario become reality. Likewise, it is necessary to ascertain to what extent the People's Republic is really ready to trigger a conflict that would hardly remain confined to Taiwan alone.
Much depends, of course, on Joe Biden's attitude. The US is the only one who can really counter the possible invasion, albeit with more limited support from the British and Japanese. Beijing has the advantage of its close proximity to the island, while its Western allies would have to act from a much greater distance.
Of course, no one hopes for an armed conflict that could soon spread from the South China Sea to other parts of the world. It is a fact, however, that the Chinese approach is becoming increasingly aggressive, leading Western strategists to seriously consider a danger that, until now, seemed very distant.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/lora-di-taiwan-pechino-minaccia-lopzione-militare-loccidente-la-difenderebbe/ on Mon, 19 Jul 2021 03:56:00 +0000.