The game begins to get tough: the pre-tactics of the contenders at Colle
By now the game has become "dirty", all centered on the authentic terror of this Parliament of being sent home early, which pervades the big group of 5 stars, drawn from a gray anonymity to be thrown into the center of the scene. politics, to which they will have to return, leaving behind all the privileges of their current status. Every week, every day gained is tasted like that of a death row inmate , whose execution is already marked on the calendar, so as to induce to dream that a new wave of Covid forces us to postpone the electoral consultation of 2023.
To this day, the game is played on Berlusconi's candidacy, which, although not yet accompanied by an explicit adhesion, is no longer seen as a goliard, but as something to be taken seriously. Here then is the question of making the ghost of early elections disappear or appear. From the center-right the prospect arises that in a possible ascent to the Colle by Mario Draghi, the most popular competitor of the man from Arcore, it would be difficult if not impossible to find him a successor as prime minister, so as to make the crisis inevitable; the center-left evokes the almost certainty that a possible conquest of the Quirinale by Berlusconi would create a traumatic breakdown of the broad alliance on which the current government is counting, with the center-left forced to retreat to the Aventine.
Personally, I don't believe in these dramatizations ad usum delphini. For what it's worth I would not rely too much on an election by Mario Draghi, who has in common with the re-election of Mattarella that he has to count on an almost unanimity, with a substantial difference, that the prime minister should come out if not in the first three. , certainly in the fourth or fifth; while the outgoing President of the Republic should be good in a last one. This takes for granted their availability, cryptic for Draghi and excluded by Mattarella, the latter with an indisputable reason, namely that the transformation of the encore from exception to rule would constitute a substantial violation of the Constitution; however, neither of them would detect this availability without the absolute certainty of an immediate election, something that is very difficult to guarantee with a wavering Parliament, not very controllable, but dominated by a very strong survival instinct, albeit temporary.
If, therefore, the election of Draghi would be possible only with a very broad agreement, this could not end without the identification of the figure of the successor, without prejudice to the same large majority, possibly with that legislative pact evoked by the secretary of the Democratic Party. This would entail the creation of a precedent that is not exactly in line with our constitutional model, not so much for the passage from Prime Minister to President of the Republic, but for the preliminary, at least implicit, consensus on the name of the substitute. But it is, however, evident that the center-right being the protagonist, certainly could not be called out due to the contradiction that it does not allow; also taking into account that he could well claim the choice as his, for the very figure of Draghi and for the larger contribution to his election.
Instead, what could happen with the election of Berlusconi? Nothing terrible here either. It is not conceivable that Draghi takes the initiative to leave, giving the impression that it is a matter of personal spite, a reaction too far from his figure. He will resign to the new President of the Republic, but he will not refuse the invitation to stay unless the center-left calls himself out. But this is an eventuality easier to preach today than to ratify tomorrow, without any justification, because this is the Parliament that the Democratic Party has persisted in defending, ironically, because it did so in order to elect a President of the Republic with much of party etiquette, such as Napolitano and Mattarella himself.
There is a fact that brings everything back to its exact dimensions. It is safe to bet that both Draghi and Berlusconi, in their own inauguration speech, would say clearly that the legislature must continue to its natural end, inviting unity, but certainly reminding us that the power to dissolve the Chambers belongs to the tenant of the Quirinale, who would have no problem creating a majority in a Parliament aimed at making full use of the last remnant of the five-year period. For now, we only have to wait for Berlusconi to dissolve the reserve, something that seems to be recommended to him also by his entourage , but which finds an obstacle in the character and style of the man, who is attributed an extremely emblematic judgment on himself, who , that is, it is precisely the impossible that tempts him, with the implicit background that what is considered impossible by others is not seen and experienced as such by him, certainly comforted in this by his entire past.
But perhaps it is wrong to think that his eventual descent into the field can be considered bankrupt if he fails to assure him an absolute majority, albeit skimpy, because it could be enough to be able to count on a greater adhesion than that expressed by the center-right, to effectively become the king maker , reconfirming its historical role as the only and irreplaceable point of reference for the center-right. Downplaying Salvini and Meloni's acceptance of his presentation, as merely formal, given with the precise awareness of scarce practicability, does not seem to grasp the actual problematic nature of a center-right with respect to which only the presence of Berlusconi ensures the being Forza Italia absolutely decisive for an electoral majority, attested to the defense of the existing electoral law, against any proportional temptation of the centrists. But also and above all it ensures the open non-competition between the Lega and the Brothers of Italy, destined to re-emerge once the man of Arcore lost his role as federator, as elected or as king maker , so much so that both Salvini and the Meloni reserved the right to propose candidates who were held in pectore for the second bar. By contrast, see how the absence of a federator, as Prodi was in his time, deeply penalizes the center-left, which to date has not managed to agree on even a common tactic, let's imagine a strategy.
Nor should it be forgotten that, however understandably the "yellow" of the Quirinale hypnotizes spoken or even better overheard politics, with a spasmodic attention from the mass media , it is experienced in the country in an absolutely distracted way, a symptom of a detachment that was reflected in the recent election of a deputy with a handsome 11 percent round. The double pandemic and energy emergency is by no means overcome, nor is it foreseeable to know when it will be, which forces political forces to reconcile the responsibility required by the situation with the affirmation of identity destined to characterize an electoral year such as 2022. , which cannot consist in the exhumation of old and trite polemics, both of Berlusconi and of anti-Berlusconi manner, we have to return to speak to the country in its daily painful fatigue.
The post The game begins to get tough: the pre-tactics of the contenders at Colle appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/il-gioco-comincia-a-farsi-duro-il-pre-tatticismo-dei-contendenti-al-colle/ on Thu, 20 Jan 2022 03:43:00 +0000.