Who won and who lost: Renzi’s winning hand, Conte and Zingaretti’s mistakes
It must be recognized that, as in the game most loved by the Italian people, football, even in the political game, success is often the result of the fact that one is better also because the other is less so. So it was in the final chapter of the Giallorossi government, with a duel to the death between the 5 Stelle-Pd-Leu trio and Italia Viva . Without a doubt, it is the latter that wins, thanks to the extraordinary tactical skill of its leader, Renzi, who understood that the early elections were just a bluff . Those who agitated him, like the Democratic Party, certainly could not consider them a shareable escape route, especially in the presence of Conte's descent into the field, capable of stealing a good third of his electorate from him. But in any case, the Democratic Party could certainly not replace the tenant of the Quirinale, who was notoriously opposed to the dissolution of Parliament, also to prevent a victory of the center-right, such as to break the consolidated continuity of presidents of the Republic with a left eye; certainly, however, with an excellent justification for the concurrent and cumulative health and economic-social crisis, as he would have explained extensively in the last speech, in which he reserved the right to give the job for a high profile government.
On the other hand, the indefinite defense of a Count ter , defined as the most advanced point of the balance between the three orphaned parties of Italia Viva , with the pressing for the emergence of a group of responsible senators conducted as if it were a within reach, in itself denied that bluff , even in the eyes of any available center-right candidates, confirming the sure survival of the legislature.
It is not possible to know what Renzi's initial intention was in making the delegation withdraw, but he certainly cultivated a growing dissatisfaction with the government policy, now dictated by the 5 Stars, with the hiring of Conte as the new leader , to which he was the counterpart the stammering of a Zingaretti lingering in the confused design of a Pd and 5 Star iron accord. It must be acknowledged that for Renzi it was a clash over the contents even before the seats, the so-called armchairs, under the banner of the adage nomina sunt consequentia rerum , which has become an authentic mantra of political confrontation. Nonetheless, beyond this, the goal was to downsize Conte, already starting with the public revocation of the excommunication launched against Italia Viva , with a loss of face of its entire residual majority, determined loudly to do less than the Renzian patrol. Of course, a simple lifting of the excommunication would not have been enough, this would have to be accompanied by discontinuity in the programs and in the men, to make it credible in the eyes of public opinion. It would have been this discontinuity to show that the crisis was not a head lift of that narcissist Renzi, tormented by the inexhaustible desire to have the entire stage for himself, but a serious thing, witnessed by tabulas .
Here lies the trademark mistake of Conte and his companions, that of having tried to find in the Senate a crutch that would allow to marginalize Italia Viva , something that should have been attempted only with the absolute certainty of success, especially without an uncovered commitment on the part. of the Prime Minister. The result was a shameful story not only for the small group of exiles, without any common inspiration, if not for having already voted their trust in Conte, quite the opposite of those "builders" to whom Mattarella appealed. But, I would say, above all for the explicit involvement of the Democratic Party, which has come to move one of its senators to allow the birth of the group of leaders in the Senate, which candidly admitted that it was provisionally commanded by Zingaretti himself; and for the personal commitment of Conte, busy the night before to convince a senator of Forza Italia, who, then, during the night, would return to the fold, under the command of his good shepherd, Berlusconi.
Why a bad mistake? Renzi understood perfectly well that, with Conte resettled, the hunt for those responsible would be resumed under the cover of a "larger" majority; and then it would have become very dangerous, both for the much wider capacity of exchange of the people's advocate, starting with the formation of the government, if anything with an expanded staff; and for the greater difficulty of calling oneself out of the majority a second time. Hence, Renzi's growing determination to aim for the big target , Conte himself, always sure that Mattarella would not dissolve Parliament, without placing any explicit veto on the name, but still trying to verify whether the concessions regarding programmatic points and components of the future government could organize a line of defense against marginalization resulting from the growth of the ranks of those responsible.
I have already written that at this point, if and as it was not possible to prepare that line of defense, Conte became the big target for Renzi; but with the further objective, namely the consequent weakening of Zingaretti, who closed himself in the dead end alley imposed on him by the 5 Stars, “Count or death”; weakening that could well have activated a shuffling of cards within the Pd. I think Renzi is underestimated if you think that he wants to die clinging to his 3/4 percent, which cannot be increased by much in a future electoral round; aims for something more, to take back the Democratic Party, once the star of Zingaretti has set.
The fall of Conte, for those who, like Renzi, considered Mattarella's choice for an institutional government almost obligatory, seemed an optimal choice, starting from the fact that all political forces would be placed on a level of substantial equality, regardless of the entity. of their parliamentary representation. This is confirmed by the immediate stance in favor of Draghi expressed by Italia Viva ; not without a justified expectation that the line followed by Draghi will be very close to that cultivated by the Renzi government, pro-European without shyness, moderate without ambiguity, modernizing without reserve.
The operation, if successful, will have a disruptive impact on the current system of alliances, breaking the consolidated blocks on the right and left, with the self-isolation of the Brothers of Italy and the 5 Stars, if their first statements are followed by the facts. And here the weakening of Zingaretti that Renzi pursues will fully manifest itself, with the failure of the tactics and strategy of the secretary of the party, that is the defense at all costs of Conte, completely functional to the creation of a united Pd-5Stelle front, capable to compete on an equal footing with the center-right.
The center-right does not seem to have to suffer particularly from the advent of the Draghi government, both for its greater flexibility which does not appear to be able to compromise the electoral alliance every time you vote, and for the same policy that can be expected due to the previous formation and experience of the former ECB president. At the appointment it would seem at the moment there is a Forza Italia convinced for the yes, a League oscillating between yes and abstention, a Brothers of Italy positioned on no, but open to support on individual measures.
The most emblematic result would be the disappearance of the distinction between pro-Europeans and populists and sovereigns, making a mix of two words with different meanings; that is nothing less than the sacred boundary for 5 Stars, Pd and Leu, within which to circumscribe a homogeneous majority in which to stay, with full constitutional and community legitimacy. Now, however, a promiscuous majority is expected, with little or no possibility of distinction, in which to live together separately at home.
However you think, a new season has opened, which forces everyone to get out of the old patterns, proclamations, slogans, starting with those mass media that were delayed in blaming Renzi, by insisting on his trip to Saudi Arabia, as if it constituted something of relevant for the immediate future. The Prince's consultants, with Bettini and Travaglio in the front row, have lost due to a lack of lucidity or an excess of bias; and have made the Prince himself lose, who can now become an unpredictable subject, capable of escaping the anonymity to which the passage of time will condemn him, with some initiative, take over the 5 Stars or found a movement / party, with a sincere wish from Renzi, because if this happened, Zingaretti's life would be further complicated.
The post Who won and who lost: Renzi's winning hand, Conte and Zingaretti's mistakes appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/chi-ha-vinto-e-chi-ha-perso-la-mano-vincente-di-renzi-gli-errori-di-conte-e-zingaretti/ on Thu, 04 Feb 2021 04:54:00 +0000.