End of the Superbonus: what will drive GDP growth now

The government has decided to stop the transfer of credits relating to 110% and even the discount on the invoice. Even if these are announcements and everyone is waiting to understand the definitive content of the standard, some guidelines are known:

• stop to purchases by the Public Administration, as had happened in the province of Treviso and what was being talked about in various Italian regions;
• acknowledgment of sales that have already taken place, even if there is no clarity as to when the ban on credit discounting will take effect;
• exemption from criminal liability of the transferee if his good faith can be proven by documentation or photos;

So 110% for the future, even if it is not clear what it means for the past: will those who have already started the works still be able to discount them? And who already has all the permits and was waiting for the companies to arrive to start work? There are still many points to clarify. Above all, there is a lack of a solution for existing credits: what do we do with them?

The rush of the regions to help businesses blew up the negotiating bench and led to this dry and brutal decision. The 110% measure had many enemies, in Italy and in Europe, starting with the former Prime Minister Draghi, and peers who prevailed in the end. As Borghi writes, it seems that the government has put a stop to protect what has already been done:

Given that I reserve the right to read the final text, I studied the question (reluctantly).
In practice, the government has chosen to protect current holders of stranded tax credits at the expense of continuing the measure for those who have not started. I agree.

— Claudio Borghi A. (@borghi_claudio) February 17, 2023

The problem is that the GDP growth much praised by the Draghi government and actually better than that of Germany, was largely due to the construction sector, as can be seen from the graph below which shows the sector's contribution to growth

This contribution will now fall and it will be interesting to see if some other component of GDP will be able to replace the contribution of the construction sector. Above all, there is a problem related to the efficiency of buildings so desired by Europe: who will pay for this very expensive process at this point?

The enemies of the superbonus say that this money can now be spent better, but no one seems to have the idea of ​​how: however, construction has a local and territorial impact that many other interventions do not have. We will see what will happen in the near future also because the categories involved will certainly not remain silent.

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The article End of the Superbonus: what will drive GDP growth now comes from Scenari Economici .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/fine-del-superbonus-cosa-spingera-la-crescita-del-pil-adesso/ on Fri, 17 Feb 2023 09:00:03 +0000.