Global oil demand is driven by aviation fuel
Demand for jet fuel is recovering across global regions as people return to mass travel. Demand for aviation kerosene is expected to drive growth in global oil demand this year.
The total number of airline passengers is set to reach a record high this year, at 4.96 billion, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said last week in its latest airline profitability forecast.
“With a record five billion air travelers expected in 2024, the human need to fly has never been stronger,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
“Without a doubt, aviation is vital to the ambitions and prosperity of individuals and economies.”
Additionally, the average passenger load factor is expected to be 82.5% in 2024 – largely in line with pre-pandemic levels of 82.6% in 2019, IATA noted.
A growing demand and not threatened by electric
Demand for jet fuel is set to increase by 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared to last year, according to Simon Warren, an analyst at the world's largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group.
“Global demand for jets has returned to pre-Covid levels, for the first time since 2020,” Warren told Bloomberg.
“The recovery was mainly driven by the short-haul sector. Jets are a primary driver of overall oil demand growth,” the analyst added.
Summer holiday travel and pent-up demand in China will boost jet fuel consumption and oil demand this year, according to industry analysts and forecasters such as OPEC. Furthermore, if civil mobility on land can be replaced by electric, which is starting to be relevant, electric mobility in the air is only at an experimental level or little more.
Goldman Sachs, for example, revised down its oil demand growth estimate for this year, by 200,000 bpd to 1.25 million bpd, but noted that it still sees robust global demand thanks to the recovery in consumption of jet fuel.
Brent crude prices are set to rise to $86 a barrel this summer, thanks to strong consumer demand that will drive the market into a sizable deficit in the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.
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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-domanda-di-petrolio-mondiale-e-guadata-dal-carburane-avio/ on Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:33:57 +0000.