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Election 2024: Reformist UK will overtake Tories in polls, Ipsos chief predicts

Reform UK could overtake the Conservative Party in at least some polls, in a so-called "crossover moment", the head of a polling firm has predicted.

Reform UK is a liberal and conservative party, born from the ashes of the Brexit Party and which developed after the withdrawal of Boris Johnson and the current government of Rishi Sunak, an expression of a politics distant from the people. Reform UK had a strong initial push from Nigel Garage, but he did not accept political leadership in the elections.

Reform UK could overtake the Conservative Party in at least some polls in a so-called "crossover moment", according to the head of a major polling firm . Kelly Beaver, chief executive of market research firm Ipsos UK , has predicted told Times Radio on Sunday: “There are those who say that in the next two weeks some polls could come out in which the Reform party has a higher share of the vote than the Conservative Party itself .”

I think we will see such a moment and I'm sure we will talk about it a lot, because some polls at the moment have the Conservative Party only 2% ahead of Reform ." The news comes after a difficult few days for the Conservatives, with Rishi Sunak who has come under fire for his decision to leave the D-Day commemorations in Normandy early.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said Sunak is "completely disconnected from class, privilege and how ordinary people feel in this country", while the former defense secretary and former Conservative leadership candidate, Penny Mordaunt called it "very wrong" in Friday's televised debate. Beaver also compared the situation to that of Canada in 1993, which saw the main right-wing party, the Progressive Conservatives, under Kim Campbell , lose all their seats. except two.

Sunak under pressure after admitting 'it was a mistake' to leave D-Day events early

The Progressive Conservatives were stripped of official party status and were effectively supplanted by the Canadian Reform Party, which became the great home of right-wing voters. “We also hear about a sort of 'Canada moment,' because in Canada there was a point where one of the main parties ended up giving way to a Reform-like party and becoming the second main party,” he said.

But the Ipsos boss stressed that in the UK “the devil is in the detail”.

The methodology adopted by different pollsters varies, with some asking respondents more detailed questions about who might win their vote, or asking them again to answer “I don't know”. This can skew poll results and explains the variations that we have seen in the poll results in recent weeks.

Aggregator polls average the results of different polling companies, hence Labour's oft-cited lead of 20 points.

My generation must never forget the sacrifice of the heroes of D-Day for our freedom

Beaver added that she would be “surprised” if Reform UK overtook the Conservatives at an aggregate level, but suggested that could happen in smaller polls with different methodologies. “The poll of polls still stands at around a 20 point lead for Labour, so on an aggregate level I would say we're not seeing much movement,” he said, despite a torrid week for the Prime Minister. Cabinet minister Mel Stride told Sky News on Sunday that Sunak “deeply regrets” his decision to leave events marking the 80th anniversary of D-Day in advance and said he was “deeply patriotic.”

He added: “The Prime Minister accepted he had made a mistake. He has apologized unequivocally for this… he will be deeply uncomfortable about what happened.”

Labour's Sir Keir Starmer said : "It's clear he has questions he needs to answer in relation to what happened on D-Day and he doesn't appear to want to answer them at the moment."

The Labor leader added : "I know what I stand for, I know why I was there on Thursday, to pay my respects and to say thank you. And I felt humiliated, to be honest, when I was there."

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The article Election 2024: Reformist UK will overtake Tories in polls, Ipsos chief predicts comes from Economic Scenarios .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/elezioni-2024-il-regno-unito-riformista-superera-i-tories-nei-sondaggi-prevede-il-capo-di-ipsos/ on Mon, 10 Jun 2024 09:00:45 +0000.