Green Pass, Enhanced Green Pass, and Economy. A logical choice or an imminent nonsense?

There are times when even a "Broken Window" would be good to restart the stagnant economy, especially coming from a very strong external crisis such as that caused by the mix of Covid and the energy crisis. This means that there are occasions in which consumption and citizens' confidence in the future should be pushed. After all, retail sales in Italy are slowing down

We are now dancing around zero, and it is worthless to boast of more than 3% of GDP growth achieved in the first part of the year, when in the last quarter this growth could be easily canceled and, in any case, we remain well below the level of the 2019. The great growth boasted is only in the regime's propaganda.

Now in government Brunetta-Speranza has decided to "Emmerder", to put it to Macron, the Italian citizens who do not wish to be vaccinated, and has done so with the promise of sanctions, which we will discuss at the end, and with a series of measures aimed at limit their life.

It is now estimated that there are approximately 44 million vaccinated people (complete vaccination, which, over the months, will in any case no longer be valid for the purposes of the green pass). We therefore have 75% of people vaccinated and 25% of people who are not.

So let's do the math:

• from this weekend, restaurateurs, bartenders, etc., have lost 25% of their turnover;
• Having had, for work reasons, direct experience of the new air that pulls in public places, my impression is that either the unvaccinated are more than 25% or the fact of having to take out cards and phones and have them examined for a quick coffee has discouraged patrons;
• in the same way, without the “Hardcore” green pass, they will no longer spend in gyms, swimming pools, etc., not even with a tampon. Not only that, but, not being able to attend gaming and betting halls, they will recover from gambling addiction instantly. Money saved, at a time when the economy would have been better encouraged to spend it. Ah, Brunetta teaches economics, it seems …
• From January 20, the simple green pass is mandatory for shops, hairdressers and beauty centers. So those without it will make a scheduled and periodic shopping, or home delivery. This will lead, for this segment of consumers, to a reduction in consumption and the cancellation of the so-called "impulse purchases";
• as these measures do not lead to a limitation of infections, even those with a vaccination pass will reduce purchases and social opportunities.

A contraction in consumption and retail sales is therefore being prepared which will begin to make itself felt in the fourth quarter of 2021 and then express itself completely in the first quarter of 2022. The entity will depend on what was the propensity to buy of citizens who did not they want to vaccinate, but also by the degree of fear spread by the Brunetta – Speranza government. We must then consider some amplification factors:

– first of all, vaccination passes are subject to a scheduled forfeiture that obliges their renewal, which is not necessarily the case. Are we sure that all second dose vaccinates will do the booster?

– therefore the extraordinary increase in energy costs will lead to a further general compression of non-energy expenses in general and discretionary expenses in particular. This opposite will weigh on those sectors already hit by the Green pass.

Then the technically prepared government comes to conduct a forced austerity policy based on the Green Pass. We will see what the effect will be between now and March, but it will certainly not be pleasant. But in the end, to the Brunetta government – Hope, who cares about small Italian companies?

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The Green Pass article , Enhanced Green Pass, and economics. A logical choice or an imminent nonsense? comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/green-pass-green-pass-rafforzato-e-economia-una-scelta-logica-o-unimminente-stupidaggine/ on Sat, 08 Jan 2022 08:00:15 +0000.