Oil demand: expert forecasts maximum for August
Commodities experts at StanChart have forecast that global oil demand will hit a new all-time high of 102.24 mb/d in August. A second peak will be reached in December. The maximum is historic, but it took four years after the Covid explosion.
This is a reversal of the forecast trend of the various energy agencies which, until the beginning of the year, forecast a drop in oil consumption. The forecasts are divergent among the various research bodies: for example EIA, the energy information agency, has cut its forecasts, with a drop of 420,000 barrels per day of demand, all as less demand for OPEC (“Call on OPEC”). By contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects growth of 400 mb/d, 2.326 mb/d lower than its July 2022 forecast. As a result, all four agencies expect at least some growth, although fail to find a consensus on its extent. But here's the kicker: At least one expert has predicted that oil demand will hit an all-time high this year. Commodity experts at StanChart have forecast that global oil demand will hit a new all-time high of 102.24 mb/d in August, surpassing the previous record of 102.2 mb/d set in August 2019.
Source : standard chartered
As for whether fundamentals are improving or weakening, StanChart sees the situation from two different angles: the bullish interpretation is simply that it is an all-time high; the bearish one is that
that it took global demand no less than four years to return to previous highs. Indeed, StanChart estimates that if the status quo had been maintained over those four years, global oil demand would have increased by another 5 mb/d. Even better, StanChart sees oil demand hitting new all-time highs in both November and December, with demand set to rise above 103mb/d for the first time in June 2024.
On the natural gas front, natural gas futures trimmed Tuesday's gains into the early trading of the intraday session on Wednesday as traders continued to weigh the impact of late April chilly weather on balance sheets. Gas prices jumped more than 9% on Tuesday after weekend weather forecasts pointed to a second consecutive bout of strong demand for natural gas due to colder weather. Demand, driven by the mild weather, had an impact on gas markets, with Henry Hub prices dropping as low as $1.84 on Friday. However, the technical analysis of prices, through the 50-day moving averages, seem to show the expectation of a radical change in prices in the short term.
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The article Oil demand: expert forecasts maximum for August comes from Scenari Economics .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/domanda-petrolio-esperto-prevede-massimo-per-agosto/ on Thu, 20 Apr 2023 08:00:02 +0000.