A data published by One world data has caught our attention and we would like to understand the causes, even if we have some serious doubts about the true nature of the virus that affects Italians.
Here are the Italian data:
A similar, but much less dramatic, trend is present in Germany
Now let's see the trend instead of these deaths in Spain:
What we can observe is the following:
- until the early nineties there was a significant drop in the number of deaths from lung diseases;
- this trend has reversed since the mid-1990s in all three countries;
- the increase is entirely due to people over 70;
- Italy has a much more dramatic trend since 2007.
We can think of other causes, such as an increase in the average age. There was indeed an increase in life expectancy, but not such as to justify the explosion in mortality from pneumonia in
What happened in 1993 throughout Europe and then in Italy from 2009-10 that blew up the cases? We can certainly hypothesize that there have been epidemic reasons for the explosion of clinical cases, such as the spread of new viral pneumonia or antibiotic resistant forms. At the same time, however, it cannot escape us as:
- the first explosion of cases coincides with the crisis of the early nineties and with the setting of the Maastricht parameters, therefore with the first push towards a more austere and saving public spending;
- the explosion of the second decade of the new millennium in Italy coincides with the severe cuts to the health system and the strong austerity policies imposed since the Monti government.
The last hypothesis is confirmed by the trend of deaths from pneumonia in Greece, the European country with the most austerity regimes:
In this case we see that, before the imposition of austerity, there was a noticeable decline in the number of lung deaths among the over 70s. Deaths explode after the explosion of the euro crisis.
Therefore, even if other contributing causes cannot be excluded, including a slight increase in life expectancy, it seems clear that there is some form of connection between economic austerity measures and deaths from pneumonia among the over 70s. Even if the aging of the population is common to all of Europe, some countries are more affected by this phenomenon, not surprisingly those that have had to impose more budget cuts.
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-curioso-andamento-dei-morti-per-polmoniti-in-italia-non-e-che-lausterita-ha-auto-un-ruolo-attivo/ on Sun, 11 Oct 2020 09:53:22 +0000.