The three solutions for Russia in the Donbass

The situation is heating up on the border between Ukraine – Lugansk Donbasse Republics Zone, and Russia. The Ukrainian army has amassed troops and vehicles along the separation line, while the Russian army has deployed its forces on their side of the border. Provocations, sniper shots and other provocations from the Ukrainian side and the Donbass are intensifying, with the hope of pushing the Russians to move their forces into Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout "Russian aggression and maybe stop the Nord Stream II pipeline and solving a geopolitical problem for the US, perhaps to reach closer agreements between Kiev and NATO.

For Russians, there are no good choices, only obvious choices.

• Not responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while bombing and invading the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens living there, would make Russia appear weak, undermine the position of the Russian government nationally and cost them a large amount of capital. geopolitical at the international level.
• Responding to Ukrainian provocations with overwhelming military force and wiping out the Ukrainian army as was done in Georgia in 2008. This would be popular nationally, but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out war with NATO. Even if the conflict were contained militarily and NATO forces were to resist, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade.

There would be a third way, the only winning, but brutal, for Moscow, namely the total evacuation of the Russians in the two rebel Ukrainian republics: there are about 3.2 million residents in the Donetsk People's Republic and 1.4 million in the Lugansk People's Republic, a total of about 4.6 million residents. It may seem like a huge number, but it is small compared to the evacuations of World War II. Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without too much trouble. Furthermore, Russia is currently experiencing severe labor shortages and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be welcome, as well as creating a wave of Putin-friendly nationalism.

Internally, the evacuation would likely be very popular: Russia is doing good to its own people by bailing them out. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian voluntary movement would take action to assist the Ministry of Emergencies in helping displace and resettle the displaced. Elections to be held later this year would turn into a nationwide welcome party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave the way for more repatriation waves that are likely to follow. Then this could also be an attraction for the 20 million Russians around the world, often in less than optimal situations.

We hope that this solution will not be reached. And the Donbass? The Russian army has the tools to hit the Ukrainians even when passing over the Donbass, which would remain a buffer zone.

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The article The three solutions for Russia in the Donbass comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/le-tre-soluzioni-per-la-russia-nel-donbass/ on Mon, 19 Apr 2021 06:00:24 +0000.